oh and did you see the text book buy on the oil market right about the time CNBC was showing all the tankers out in the harbor with no place to off load. What about the perfect divergent squash and roll short in countrywide. What about the perfect dow non confirmation. Please put your trades out in a journal ahead of time. Nothing worse than after the fact "textbook setups" calls from vendors. This was an interesting thread - especially the part about the seat purchases. Why do you want to come here and act like a trade it all. (by the way there is a real trade it on all on this thread already.) Shit - I can't tell you how many people I told to short - now bankrupt lenders. But, I got out scratch a few times. The only people who deserve credit are the ones making money. Since we are not going to see that for real. The next best thing are consistent - real enough time - calls. (if you are doing that somewhere else on ET - nevermind)
MATT---- (1) Commercial users drive grain prices via buying in the cash market, short-hedging with futures and propelling the cash to a progressively larger premium over the futures. (2) Urbana is buying seats in order to benefit from an IPO or merger of the MGEX. It's not completely related to the bull market in wheat. (3) Has anybody ever bought DeCecco pasta? Is it that much better than Barilla?
In Italy we consider DeCecco a lot better than Barilla, if we are talking about industrial pasta If you can purchase it, buy Gragnano custom made pasta, it's the best. About the other answer: 1) Yes, this is the role of commercials by the way. But if you look at COT, you can see that when the LU series on march began, open interest initiated to go down; what does it mean in my opinion? That they left market in the hands of large speculators. Well commercials are the owners of the underlying, so in the worst case they lose an opportunity , they are the first ones who gains from rising prices. Their gains will be only deffered. So my thesis is different: can large speculators, in a thin market, be able to boost up prices to a level that is nomore convenient for a relevant part of commercials to mantain his positions? Maybe with a preorderred plan? 2)If you look at the stock market history, IPO and M&A happened when market is at his tops, like in 2000 and 2007. Would be someone interested in a M&A or IPO on MGEX with a depressed grains market, or with a extremely strong bull market? Are they following the great wave or are they blowing on the bubble? Urbana's seats purchase prices are very high, and they are justified IMHO only if there is an imminent IPO or M&A; to encourage that, you have to mantain interest on MGEX at the highest levels.
What happened is that lots of small speculators got caught short and were forced to cover in a panic at very high prices. Once these shorts are out, there is no more support for prices at those levels and so prices will fall. It's just typical market behaviour IMO.
well closed down all my calendar spread positions yesterday with 8000$ loss each contract. Now I am not in conflict of interests anymore.... But the question is always the same: what the hell is gonna happening on minneapolis wheat:eek: :eek: :eek: ?
It's gonna keep going, trust me there is no wheat up there! I have talked to some very knowledgable insiders, HRW is gonna be shit this year too so keep that in mind. Happy trading. They are gonna squeeze the shorts and make a ton of money
thank u. I' m quite happy to have saved my back despite of the loss. I decided to close everything after reading Allendale's Friday commentary http://www.mgex.com/documents/2.12.08.pdf in fact it semms like that there is a sort of bottleneck in production not only a heavy funds speculation, isn't it?
With these markets making HH's consistently since July off every extreme oscillation, what was the reasoning to short?