Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by mgookin, Sep 8, 2010.

  1. Little blip today in corn pretty much matched the Dec10 contract high from last June (of 1999).

    Macroeconomic concensus leans towards deflation (so I hear).

    What arguments are for and against today's blip being the top of the contract with prices between now and Dec contract close being lower?

    Is current open interest level normal for this time of year on this contract?

    I just got back to trading post-Labor day and thought I'd throw this out there for people smarter than me to provide input. I know there are several traders much more qualified than myself to solve this one.

    Thanks, and happy trading.
  2. Corn rally is starting to weaken in the short-term, but do not bet against this commodity in the next couple of years, as a thematic trade is unfolding. Late Sept/early Oct. should usher in near-term corn pivot high that should bring a nice, healthy correction. After that, we'll just have to see.
  3. emg


    corn rally is normal. following the seasonal pattern. Lots of rain in the midwest this summer and i expect corn to go back below $4 by dec if midwest farmers will be able to harvest corn by dec.
  4. Thank you to both responders.
  5. Corn is a 3 month crop. If they are planting now, they will harvest in december. As for lots of rain in the summer...well too much rain causes failed harvests. I dont know how much rain was in the midwest this summer, but if it was too much you might even see higher corn prices.
  6. local


    This is anything but a normal corn market. Dec corn has closed higher 12 of the past 13 sessions, can't remember the last time that happened. Dec-dec corn at 26 over, suggests that the market is concerned with the carryover (1.1 billion) and is presently in rationing mode. Funds long record levels. All this depite reasonable growing conditions in US. Need to look beyond US, i.e. problems in Russia, Canada, China etc. for complete analysis.

    Regards, local
  7. emg


    get ready grain traders!. harvest season is here!
  8. emg


    very rare when there is too much rain during pollination stage corn price goes up. the last time i remember grain price went up during pollination stage where there is too much rain was in 1993 midwest flood. Basically, too much rain during pollination stage needs a catastrophe flood.

    this year is an idea weather in the midwest. If harvest season goes well, grain tanks
  9. local


    The market has already dialed in a sub 1 billlion bushel carryout, this despite near record production. Time to look at demand side of equation, this apppears to be a demand driven market even though funds have a record long position. Doubt that weather will have a significant negative effect on prices. Time to look beyond weather.

    Regards, local
  10. I am sure the endusers just want corn farmers to get a decent price out of their crop, so that is why the market is a little firm.
    #10     Sep 18, 2010