Corn - Jul. vs. Dec. Spread

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by stoic, Mar 24, 2012.

  1. stoic


    Some data I put together,..... and I thought I share.
  2. kanellop


    Hello Sir.

    Be very careful with it.

    I traded it a little Days ago.

    I bought it in the 93.25 Area with Stop Loss 70.

    Drop it around 78 and then gone up.

    Finally, i closed it in the 93.5.

    Possibly, i do not see it to raise it from here for the coming Time Period.

    The Major Problem to it,

    are the Old CBOT Corn Futures Prices.

    Yes, we know that the USA Cash Corn Basis are too strong,

    but does not exist tremendous Good Corn Sales to China that have Problems in their Corn situation.

    China possibly, have overestimate their Corn in storage.

    For that reason buys and buys Feed Wheat.

    Their recent buy was from Australia for 350000 Tonnes of Feed Wheat.

    Exist right now, quite ample supplies in the World of Feed Wheat and not only of it.

    For that reason i believe,

    that can not make any Good Price Rally until now,

    the May 2012 and July 2012 CBOT Corn.

    Now, the Corn have and the Ethanol Issue.


    exist Rumors that USDA can change the Ethanol Maths.

    That means and change in the Stocks in the coming USDA 30 March Report.

    Maybe all these means,

    that possibly USDA will leave unchange the Stocks of Corn in the coming USDA 30 March Report,

    but will caught the Stocks of Wheat.

    That possibly, will means not a Rally for the Prices of Old Corn Futures Contracts of CBOT Corn ( May 2012 & July 2012 ),

    in combination with other Issues,

    for example,

    Good USA Corn Planting Weather with Good Rains, a drop in Crude Oil Prices, a drop in Soybeans Futures Prices, etc..

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.