Lots of shamans are preaching that the bottom in commodities is in. I think they are referring to indexes that are light in grains, so the indexes may have put in a major bottom. I wouldn’t bet the farm on grains though. The US is just now getting into the full swing of harvest and growers have been hoarding grain since 2021. Their storage is full and they will have to dump grain on the market soon. The drought in Brazil could be supporting the market right now due to unfavorable planting conditions, but that is a condition that could change and it’s for production that won’t be harvested until May. Long ways off. If the bottom has actually occurred in corn/soybeans I’ll probably swing trade the sideways action in both directions. I just can’t get on board with a bull opinion when we’re in the seasonal low period and have a crop that is predicted to be the largest ever. I guess I’d change my mind if the current world conflicts start bombing farmland instead of cities. I’m not predicting a hard drop from here but I’m pretty confident that we won’t see an explosive move to the upside.
Thinks the bottom is in for Dec Corn. Fundamentals aren't bullish though so agree, won't have explosive move higher. U.S. stocks nearly 500M bushels more than a year ago at this time. (USDA quarterly report monday) More than half of farmers are less than 50% sold on new crop BUT hedge funds are heavy short so if we can keep grinding higher the farmer selling will be met with fund short covering. Brazil is dry but this is their first season which accounts for just 25% of their yearly production. Ukraine exports quite a bit and they're very dry so that's a positive for prices. China is the 2nd largest corn producer in the world and they have plenty supply. They don't import a lot but imports are down 64% YOY. China corn prices are confirming the plentiful supply. Biggest story for this coming week and following weeks for ALL markets is going to be the port workers strike IMO. I would see it as a negative for most markets, including grains.