I'm currently short the September contract at an average $7.69 1/4 per bushel and have been long September wheat since $7.77. Waiting through for the Acreage Report on Monday will be tough but am expecting corn to fall based on the spectacular speculative rise over the past month and a half. Looks double-toppy too. We'll certainly see on Monday how it opens up. Good luck to all shorts out there!
Do you know what time the report comes out and is there a link to view it with maybe a discussion of what's expected? Thx. BTW tried shorting the open on Thursday but picked the wrong day. Friday was obviously the day and did pretty much exactly what I thought it would do Thursday. Quite a sell off the first 5 minutes. Been trading the September contracts. All in the timing.
The report comes out tomorrow morning at 7:30am CST, when the market is not open so I'd expect a huge move at the open. Here are two sites that carry info and recommendations: http://www.farmfutures.com/ME2/dirm...0&tier=3&nid=0C1DE14A672D4B679ECF9A61CBFD4452 http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...eference=b88006fa-b53c-4980-88e5-e3a4e3a4d33e The second one gives a good in-depth look into what roughly the market is expecting from the report: Summary: Expectation average for planted corn: 85 million acres (range from 79 to 87 million) Last year acreage: 93.6 million acres March Prospective Plantings report: 86 million acres Estimate for corn stocks: 3.894 billion bushels Long some August corn puts into tomorrow as it looks like a double-top chart pattern and maybe some bearish sentiment will make its way into the market as weather in the Midwest isn't as bad as earlier this month (of course going into a fundamental report that doesn't always work, thus I'm not short outright futures).
Thanks very much for the info. I was going to trade a couple of hours ago but I'll just wait til tomorrow morning. I thought there may be a bump off the latest levee break, but I saw the double top too. Just have to watch the price action. Stay tuned. Thanks again.
Here is a direct link to the USDA website Keep it in your Favorites for future reference http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?navid=AGENCY_REPORTS&navtype=RT&parentnav=NEWSROOM&edeployment_action=changenav
Thanks for the link. I was just wondering about that. Your link got cut off but here it is. http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/...rentnav=NEWSROOM&edeployment_action=changenav Sounds like it may be hard to interpret accurately as they mentioned a lot of the rain and flooding came after they collected their data and the additional collecting maybe wasn't complete. Looking for the general market to maybe rebound a bit tomorrow as it's sold off so much (for good reason) and tomorrow is the first day of the new fiscal year and also the first day of the quarter. We'll have to see what the Chicago PMI number is at 9:45 EST. No Fed to prop things up now so we'll see.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/Acre/Acre-06-30-2008.pdf Higher than expected at 87.3 acres.