Simpleton Listen to Proflogic and Rtrader2525 they are some of the better grain traders on ET and know what they are talking about. Proflogic is bullish and Rtrader2525 doesn't seem to have a strong opinion either way so what does that tell you????? Stay the hell out or get long. Believe me I tried stepping infront of wheat last year on more than one occasion and got murdered!!! Its just not worth it. To be honest I would recommend just staying out of the grain markets for the next 5 years unless you have balls of steel. Good Luck to you
Thanks for the advice. And to be clear I'm not a 'grain' trader, but I do have a lot of trading experience and am quite humble (as evidenced by the handle I chose). This doesn't dissuade me from the fact that I know I am going against the grain (haha) and most if not all 'facts' point to higher prices, but I think I know a thing or two about market behaviour which in this case I believe will override the fundamentals. In reality no one knows what the potential clearing price for corn will be but it is our job as a trader to figure out what is priced into the asset to see if there is a trade where the rewards outweigh the risks. And finally, more important than balls of steel, you need enough capital to support your trading style with some margin for error. Thanks for reading and speak to you when Sep Corn hits 700 (or 800 my stop).
how can corn go down when fertilizer, chemicals and diesel costs are going thru the roof? Isn't it so obvious?
Maybe too obvious, who knows. I wouldnt be inclined to buy most grains here, thats for sure. But, I also don't want to buy either, more of a wait and see what happens. Both sides of the trade have more risk than I want take for what I feel the upside could be from this point.
Iowa Corn =19% of US Corn I have heard that 20% of Iowa acres are ruined. That equals about 4% of US prodution. If the balance of US yield is up 4% due to good moisture, it is a push. Are the low lying acres the most productive, least produtive, or just average?