Every contract month is unique. Similarity means absolutely nothing in tradeable contracts. That isn't a technical statement, that is shear pattern recognition and that is akin to typical random assessment of charts especially if you are using daily, minute or tick charts. Currently Dec 08 eCorn is ranging between $6.2875 and $5.0450. $6.2875 took out our last oscillation high at $6.2475 so there will be at least ONE MORE challenge of that $6.2875 price level (though not necessarily close) to confirm it or deny it as a top. One can not say "corn just topped" until that action as taken place. That's pure technical. On a fundamental level the corn in the fields here locally are firing and have fired. That means they are DONE! FINISHED! KAPUT! Firing is caused by untimely lack of moisture. As soon as the firing took play potential yields drops by 15 to 20% in the area. Add that to the overestimated USDA amounts of acreage and we are seeing a good argument for at least $7 corn going into harvest if not a full challenge of the last top of $7.9925. Regardless, the current range is critical. If we break below $5.0450 we will probably see your $4.5000 but IMHO we are more likely to see $7-$8. We all wait and see and can only read the oscillations as they occur. Picking tops and bottoms without confirmation is suicide and I for one choose life over death.
you seem to have a wealth of knowledge about the grains ProfLogic. I take it you are (were?) a farmer to boot. looks like the market is at a potential decision point. we've had a pull-back from the highs, so it could be set to blast off to $7, which you seem to have laid the fundamental case for.
Prof- Any thoughts on tomorrow's report? Looks like all the weather issues have been evening out, at least in the near term. Certainly would be interesting if there were to be a report showing what you've been saying recently.
The area around me is done. They are taking the corn and beans out of the fields already. Western Iowa looks great but it is late and currently high moisture. I don't much hope the report will be anywhere close to honest or accurate. I have a friend that has many ethanol clients in the northern US that are absolutely crying for corn and they all say there isn't enough in the fields or the bins to supply all of the need this year. We will see tomorrow.
Stupid question from a newbie futures researcher here..... I see on the USDA site that tomorrow's crop report is listed for 8:30am. Is that EST or CST? For those of you experienced in these things, do the markets tend to start moving ahead of the official report. (leaking info, etc.) or during/after the report? Thanks for any and all replies.
Stupid question from a newbie futures researcher here..... I see on the USDA site that tomorrow's crop report is listed for 8:30am. Is that EST or CST? For those of you experienced in these things, do the markets tend to start moving ahead of the official report. (leaking info, etc.) or during/after the report? Thanks for any and all replies.
where are you located? I live in mtn zone and it will be 6:30 for me. AM. USDA is very tightlipped imo,
I'm in Texas, so Central Standard Time. If it's 6:30 for you in mountain, that means 7:30 for me.... gotta drag it outta bed! Lots of conflicting thoughts here..... (name of the game, eh?) it will be interesting to see what the report says and if it creates significant movement.