Corn Agronomy Issue/s.

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by kanellop, Jan 11, 2013.

  1. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again.

    I decide to add this hour something quite special and relative to Corn,

    into the EliteTrader Forum.

    Published it some Days ago from a very serious ( With my small opinion ) U.S.A Journalist.

    It is a Corn Agronomy Issue.

    It is here:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...8f&showCommentsOverride=false&blogRegionCode= .

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    Have Title:

    Low Winter Moisture And Yield Potential.

    Journalist: Bryce Anderson.

    Inside of it exist:

    With all the concern about drought--even in areas that have received more moisture in the past couple months, there is a fair amount of worry about what that means for crop performance in 2013. To get some educated views on that topic, I recently sent a note to several agronomists at Midwest land grant universities with the following questions:

    "Considering that it appears that the Palmer Drought Index for November was in the same category for dryness as that of 1934—do you have an opinion on what this says regarding corn’s yield potential for 2013—and is it true that corn's water needs during the pollination period are only half supplied by normal summer rainfall with the other 50% coming from soil moisture reserves?"

    I received a couple replies and they are posted below. The comments are maybe a little long, but I know that many of you like the details so they have not been edited. --BA

    First, from Emerson Nafziger, University of Illinois--

    "I know that the western Corn Belt has been very dry over the past 3 or 4 months, unlike the eastern CB, where we've had close to normal rainfall since late August. Even with maybe 15 inches of rainfall here in eastern Illinois, though, people report very little moisture when they dig deep, and no tiles lines are running.

    So there is concern about soil's being dry now, though I don't know if the Palmer Drought Index is a good indicator of how much water is stored in the soil. If we get half to 2/3rds of normal precip from now through March, there should be enough water to fully recharge the soil from the drying out last season. It's quite unusual not to have full soil moisture recharge in Illinois; we last saw this in a few areas in 1989. But we'll be watching it closely. Of course, as we saw this year, even with full recharge by spring it still has to rain to make corn yield.

    To answer your question about water use: it depends a great deal on where you are in the Corn Belt, but corn crop water use during the month of July here would typically be about 6 inches, and rainfall averages about 4 inches. Season-long, Our better soils can hold about 10 to 12 inches of water available to the crop, and seasonal rainfall (May through August) averages about 4 inches per month, so 16 inches or so. Water use by a 200-bushel corn crop is about 22 inches, so between the soil and rainfall there is little deviancy most year. In a year like 2012, where rainfall in June and July totaled less than 3 inches in many places, along with very high July temperatures (rapid water use), the crop couldn't extract enough water (fast enough) to make pollination work, or to work well, and kernel set was very poor.

    In un-irrigated areas of Kansas and Nebraska, water use (evaporation) rates are higher than here, and rainfall is less on average, so yield loss to water deficiency is more common. In a year like 2012, soil water would have been depleted fairly early, resulting in pollination problems and low yields."

    And, from Bob Nielsen at Purdue University--

    "As you probably know, corn requires between 20 and 25 inches of water to produce a crop. That comes from some combination of soil reserves + rainfall + irrigation.

    Soils vary in how much water they can store per foot and, of course, for effective rooting depth. Most of our non-sand soils store between 1.5 and 2 inches of water per foot of soil. If the effective rooting depth was 3 feet, that translates to 4.5 to 6 inches of water holding capability. If 4 feet, then upwards of 8 inches of water holding capability. Sandier soils may store only 3/4 to 1.25 inch per foot.

    Any way you calculate it, most soils cannot supply as much as half what the crop needs. So, timing of rainfall or irrigation during the entire season is crucial.

    I learned a long time ago not to try to predict a corn crop this far in advance. So all I will say is that going into a growing season with excessively dry soil reserves is obviously not desirable for achieving high yields."

    Bryce

    Posted at 2:12PM CST 01/04/13 by Bryce Anderson

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  2. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again to All.

    Into these News:

    http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-corn-crop-to-set-record-but-not-by-mega-margin--5486.html ,

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    US corn crop to set record, but not by mega-margin

    Lanworth forecast a rebound in US corn production to a record high, but urged caution over expectations of super-abundant supplies, warning that high temperatures could again curb yields.

    The consultancy, renowned for its use of satellite data, said that historical data suggested the US corn yield should reach 163.1 bushels per acre this year "under normal weather conditions".

    This is in line with figures from some other commentators – including the US Congressional Budget Office, which in a report on Tuesday pencilled in a 161.5 bushels-per-acre yield figure, and a harvest of 14.5bn bushels – up 35% year on year.

    While the CBO report factored in sharp recoveries in corn consumption too, including a rebound of more than one-half in US corn exports, the increased harvest would see stocks at the close of 2013-14 to an eight-year high of 1.85bn bushels (47.0m tonnes).

    Key temperature

    However, Lanworth said that a lower yield looked likely, given the likelihood that average minimum temperatures in July and August would exceed a tipping point, of 68.8 degrees Fahrenheit, above which crop potential rapidly fades.

    "US summertime temperatures have risen over the last three decades, with a simple linear trend projecting 2013 July and August night-time temperatures will exceed the threshold, and likely reduce corn yield 3% or more from trend," the consultancy said.

    It rated with "only" an 11% probability the likelihood that August night-time temperatures will average below 66.2 degrees Fahrenheit, and likely to nurture yields well above the 163.1 bushels-per-acre level.

    The group, in its first estimate for the 2013 US corn yield, pegged it at 155.6 bushels per acre, which would be a marked improvement on last year's result, of 123.4 bushels per acre, but fall well short of the trend figure, and the record 164.7 bushels per acre reached in 2009-10.

    The harvest was estimated at 13.8bn bushels, enough to set a record, but not as comfortably as some other observers suggest.

    'Substantial uncertainty'

    Indeed, Lanworth urged caution over accepting the sizeable yield figure that the US Department of Agriculture is likely to come out with later this month, when it unveils forecasts for 2013-14.
    "Because it typically assumes average growing conditions, the USDA will likely set the 2013-14 US corn yield near 163 bushels per acre," the group said.

    Factoring in expectations of large planting, which the CBO pegged at 97.0m acres and Lanworth at 97.5m acres, US corn stocks could end the season "near or above 2.0bn bushels" – tripling over one season.

    "In Lanworth's view, however, historically low 2012-13 ending stocks, combined with a wide range of potential 2013-14 corn production, imply substantial uncertainty to ending stocks and place great importance on summer growing conditions."

    'Extreme conditions'

    Separately, the group cut by 500,000 tonnes, to 25.1m tonnes, its forecast for Argentina's corn harvest, and by 1.5m tonnes to 51.6m tonnes its estimate of soybean production, citing "persistent and expected dry conditions".

    "Weather models continue to predict extreme conditions over Argentina, southern Brazil and south east Paraguay over the next one to two weeks," Lanworth said.

    It also trimmed by 200,000 tonnes to 75.6m tonnes its forecast for Brazil's corn harvest, and by 600,000 tonnes to 80.3m tonnes its estimates of the country's soybean crop citing "below normal precipitation" in southern areas.

    -----

    exist serious Comments to how Night Temperatures can affect Corn.

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  3. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again to All.

    In the Biweekly RJO Futures eView Newsletter of April 30, 2013,

    the RJO Futures Senior Commodities Broker,

    Mr. Stephen Davis,

    wrote:

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    04/30/2013 10:03am CDT

    Where did our spring go? Record cold and snow has been reported in dozens of cities, with the worst of the chill in the Rockies, Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. Several baseball games have been snowed out in both Denver and Minneapolis. More snow and cold temperatures, along with still more rain are in the forecast, which will continue to delay corn planting across key production areas.

    Our corn planting progress next week is unlikely to top 10-11% versus the 47% normal. This will put the 2013 growing season as the slowest start in history. There is no evidence yet that loss in 2013 US corn yield potential will be anything close to 2012. However, some points to note are: Delayed seeding typically gets farmers to plant on sub–optimal seedbeds that results in delayed emergence and lower plant populations. Delayed planting raises the risk that corn pollinates during peak summer heat while maturing later than normal thus upping odds of early autumn frost. Also, late planted 2013 US corn will allow the corn market to hold risk premium higher and longer than in timely planted years. That being said, we will have a corn crop in 2013.

    In the last eView we wrote to sell corn into the gap area left from the March 28 bearish report. That gap area in July Corn starts at 6572. Yesterday, July corn gapped higher leaving a gap underneath at 625 to the 6244 area. Corn is very good at filling these gaps .We just do not know when this will happen.

    The tightness in old crop row crops is more severe in soybeans than corn. Hence a couple spread ideas to consider are long July soybean meal and short July corn or, long July soybean meal and short July soybean oil.

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  4. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again to All.

    Exist the following Issue for Corn:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3e43976e013e5cb0cf8800ff .

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    04/30/2013

    Hoping For Half

    Darrel Good and Scott Irwin at the University of Illinois posted an interesting study on the topic of "How Much Of The 2013 Corn Crop Will Be Planted Late?" the week of April 22nd. Here are the key points of their study, and I updated it with conditions and figures from the April 28 USDA crop progress report.

    The Good & Irwin research shows that, since 1986, the term "late planting" regarding corn begins on May 20th. Also in that time frame, the long-term average of late plantings is 15 percent. From late April through the 20th of May, a typical season brings about 50 percent of those days suitable for field work. And, on average, just under 5 percent--4.8 percent to be exact--of the U.S. corn crop can be planted in a typical day.

    Now to the update---

    5 percent of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of April 28. That means that to reach 85 percent planted by May 20, 80 percent of the corn crop will need to be planted in the 21 days from April 29 through May 20. Is that possible? Maybe--but here's the way a typical activity and field work rate looks:

    With 50 percent of those 21 days suitable for field work on a typical schedule, this suggests that there will be about 10.5 days suitable for field work April 29 through May 20. With an average planting rate of 4.8 percent per day, the total is 50.4 percent additional planting by May 20th. That 50.4 percent added to the 5 percent already planted results in a sum of 55.4 percent, leaving just under 45 percent of the corn crop to be figured as being planted late.

    Again, using the 4.8 percent planted per day, how many of the next 21 days from April 29 need to be suitable for field work? Almost 17--16.7 days.

    That's where the weather forecast has thrown a real knuckleball--and why we saw that big spike in corn prices to start out this week.

    Bryce

    The full University of Illinois report is available at this link:

    http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2013/04/how-much-2013-corn-crop-planted-late.html .

    Posted at 3:44PM CDT 04/30/13 by Bryce Anderson

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  5. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again to All.

    Exist some News from here:

    http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-to-sow-small-amount-of-corn-within-ideal-window--5804.html .

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    10:57 UK, 7th May 2013, by Agrimoney.com

    US to sow small amount of corn within ideal window

    The great majority of the US corn crop looks set to be planted after the May 10 date when sowings are seen attracting a yield penalty – although many commentators are sanguine over the threat.

    US farmers had sown 12% of corn by Sunday, compared with an average of 47% by now, thanks to the persistent rains which have slowed plantings, and cold which has delayed crop development and persuaded some farmers to hold off seedings for now, US Department of Agriculture data showed.

    In Iowa, the top corn-growing state - where plantings were 8% complete, compared with an average of 56%, some growers - "delayed planting early in the week due to the forecasted snow and cold temperatures", with the state indeed receiving snowfall which "smashed all previous records", USDA scouts said.

    In second-ranked Illinois, "most farmers were limited in what they could accomplish due to saturated soils during the week with even more rains falling late in the week to bring all fieldwork to a standstill again", scouts said.

    "Just as floodwaters were receding an additional 3-4 inches were received in some locations."

    Yield penalty

    The weak pace of plantings, the slowest since 1984, has left farmers looking at having a proportion of crop in the ground by May 10 well below the average of approaching 60%.

    While there is some talk of seedings reaching 40% by Sunday, May 12, "based on last week's pace, and talk of some showers mid-to-late this week, producer will have to be running near 24/7 to reach such planting pace", Kim Rugel at broker Benson Quinn Commodities said.

    May 10 is viewed by many commentators as the cut-off date after which sowings have less yield potential, although with the US covering a broad geography, some other dates are used, including May 15.

    The yield potential is seen, broadly, as reducing 1 bushel per acre per day after the closing of the ideal sowing window, although some observers use refinements.

    A common one is a 0.5 bushel-per-acre drop per day in yield potential up to May 20, a 1.0 bushel-per-acre penalty per day up to the end of the month, with prospects falling 1.5 bushels per acre per day thereafter.

    'Corn price fall exaggerated'

    Indeed, the latest corn planting data were viewed as bullish by Commerzbank, which said "it looks virtually impossible for farmers to catch up the delay entirely by mid-May, when the window for corn planting closes".

    A drop of some 3% in Chicago futures on Monday, on hopes for improved sowings progress, appears, "exaggerated", the bank said.

    At Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Luke Mathews said that sowing progress remaining "well behind" the average pace "should ensure production concerns remain a feature of the corn market over the next week or so".

    Time for catch-up?

    However, the prospect of an improved seeding window next week has boosted hopes of farmers being able to play catch-up on seedings without sustaining too much penalty.

    Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien, the Chicago-based broker, cautioned investors against taking the slow pace of sowing last week as bullish, saying that "the market is well aware of the slow pace, in addition to knowing that the US can plant 7-8% of its corn area a day when the weather opens up".

    The record for US corn plantings, in terms of percentage of intended area sown in one week, was 43% in the week beginning May 3 1992, according to Mark Welch at Texas A&M University.

    Furthermore, the crop, initially pencilled in by the USDA at a record high of more than 14bn bushels, is seen as having a large margin for disappointment, with the department in its monthly Wasde report on Friday, giving first full forecasts for 2013-14, expected to show inventories doubling to 1.39bn bushels over the season.

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  6. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again.

    Exist some News this hour,

    from here:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3e43976e013ea4d3f49b03c4 .

    -----

    Tuesday 05/14/2013

    How Late Planting May Affect Corn Yield

    This blog item is being written during a record-hot Tuesday afternoon, May 14, in Omaha. But, the subject is still a prime one for consideration, and that is whether the late start that corn planting has had this season will indeed result in sub-par yields.

    USDA, of course, already weighed in on that issue in the May 10 supply-demand report with the projection of 158 bushels per acre for U.S. corn yields. That was a reduction of 5.6 bu/A from the projection of 163.6 announced at the Ag Outlook forum back in February. DTN contributing analyst Joel Karlin noted in an e-mail exchange that this is in line with crop weather research which was presented at the Outlook Forum. In that presentation, the USDA researchers have a mid-May planting progress coefficient of 0.289. So, a 10 percent slower pace would reduce corn yields by 2.89 bushels per acre assuming everything else stayed the same. "With the USA dropping its yield by 5.6 bu/A from their Feb Ag Outlook they are figuring mid-May plantings will be 19 percent behind average and I can’t really quarrel with that," Karlin said.

    There is, of course, plenty more material on this subject. A recent edition of the Indiana crop weather report featured an article on late planting and yield impact by agronomist Bob Nielsen. Pertinent excerpts from that article are presented here.

    Bryce

    What are the consequences of a delayed start to planting? How important a predictor of statewide corn yield is planting date anyway? Does late planting in and of itself guarantee lower than normal yields?

    Good questions, but the effect of planting date on statewide average corn yield is not clear-cut.

    If one reviews USDA-NASS crop progress reports for the past 20 years, there is NOT a strong relationship between planting date and absolute yield on a statewide basis for Indiana. Specifically, departures from annual trend yields are not strongly related to corn planting progress.

    Even though one can statistically define a mathematical relationship between departure from trend yield and planting progress by April 30 or May 15, the relationship only accounts for 22 to 24 percent of the variability in yield trend departures from year to year.

    In other words, a number of yield influencing factors (YIFs) in addition to planting date also affect the ultimate absolute yield for a given year.

    Here's the Conundrum

    Why is it that every corn agronomist known to man preaches about the importance of timely planting and yet the statewide statistical data suggest that planting date accounts for only 23% of the variability in statewide yields from year to year? Let's look more closely about this seeming conundrum.

    It is true that corn grain yield potential declines with delayed planting after about May 1 (Myers & Wiebold, 2013, Nafziger, 2008; Nafziger, 2011). Estimated yield loss per day with delayed planting varies from about 0.3 percent per day early in May to about 1 percent per day by the end of May.

    Yield potential goes down with delayed planting because of a number of factors, including a shorter growing season, greater insect & disease pressure, and higher risk of hot, dry conditions during pollination.

    However, the good news is that planting date is only one of many YIFs for corn. What is important to understand is that yield loss due to delayed planting is relative to the maximum possible yield in a given year.

    In other words, if all the other YIFs work together to determine that the maximum possible yield this year for the optimum planting date is 220 bushels per acre, then the consequence of a 10-day planting delay beyond April 30 (at 0.3 percent decrease per day) would be a yield potential of about 213 bu/A (i.e., 220 bushel potential minus [10 days x 0.3 percent] due to delayed planting).

    However, if all the other YIFs work together to determine that the maximum possible yield this year for the optimum planting date is only 150 bu/A, then the consequence of a 10-day planting delay beyond May 1 (at 0.3 percent decrease per day) would be a yield potential of about 146 bu/A (i.e., 150 bu/A potential minus [10 days x 0.3 percent] due to delayed planting). Make sense?

    Consequently, it is possible for early-planted corn in one year to yield more than, less than, or equal to later-planted corn in another year depending on the exact combination of YIFs for each year. Farmers know this to be true because some have had June-planted crops in recent years that ultimately yielded better than any crop they have ever had---because the remainder of the growing season following the delayed planting was exceptional.

    For example, the crop years 2012 and 2009 represent early and late planting date years in Indiana. About 94 percent of the state's crop was planted by May 15 in 2012, but only 20 percent of the crop was planted by May 15 of 2009. Yet, the earlier planted 2012 crop yielded 38.7 percent BELOW trend yield for that year and the later planted 2009 crop yielded 9.3 percent ABOVE trend yield. Why? Important differences in YIFs between the years other than simply the planting dates.

    Posted at 3:55PM CDT 05/14/13 by Bryce Anderson

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  7. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again.

    Exist some News this hour,

    from here:

    http://www.agrimoney.com/news/sowing-delays-grow-as-farms-overlook-soy-for-corn--5831.html .

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    11:06 UK, 14th May 2013, by Agrimoney.com

    Sowing delays grow, as farms overlook soy for corn

    The delay in US spring sowings rose further, to an area nearly the size of the UK, as rain limited fieldwork in key parts of the US, more than offsetting a boost to northern areas from drier weather.

    While US farmers accelerated plantings of corn, their main spring crop by area - getting 16% of the crop in the ground in the week to Sunday – total sowings, at 28%, were the lowest for the time of year on records going back to the 1980s.

    And that progress came in part at the expense of soybeans, which can be later seeded, so which some growers overlooked in their rush to advance corn seedings as the end of the ideal planting window closes.

    (In Illinois, the second-ranked corn producing state, sowings beyond May 20 attract a 15% yield penalty, and beyond June 1 a 25% penalty, according to University of Illinois research.)

    'Farmers worked long hours'

    National soybean plantings, at 6% complete, were well behind market expectations, of 8-11%, besides the average of 24% by now, the US Department of Agriculture crop progress data showed.

    In Ohio - where farmers on corn got nearly back to the average pace on corn by seeding 39% of their crop in one week - soybean sowing lagged "as farmers have been focused on corn planting", USDA scouts said.

    In Indiana, "farmers worked long hours anywhere soils were dry" to bring the pace of corn plantings, at least, above 2009 and 2011 levels.

    But in the two major corn and soybean states, Illinois and Iowa, farmers struggled to make progress with either crop.

    'Concerns are growing'

    In Iowa - where corn plantings were 15% complete, below an average of 79%, and soybean seedings 1% finished compared with the typical 30% by now – "moisture received on Wednesday and Thursday brought a halt to field activities", and helped limit fieldwork to 1.6 days last week.

    In Illinois, "little progress" was made outside northern and eastern areas, "as farmers were sidelined waiting for saturated soils to dry," USDA scouts said.

    "Rains fell again late in the week stalling any drying that had occurred.

    "Concerns are growing regarding the wet soils and lateness for corn planting as well as diseases due to the wet weather in the wheat crop."

    'Good progress'

    Further north, farmers enjoyed better conditions, allowing farmers in the likes of North Dakota to accelerate progress on plantings of corn and spring wheat, of which the state is America's top grower.

    Indeed, "much warmer weather conditions across the state allowed most producers to make good progress with their fieldwork," scouts said.

    "Drier weather allowed almost all producers across the state to either start preparing their fields for planting or make good progress in getting their crops in the ground."

    Indeed, 5.5 days last week were suitable for fieldwork, also helped by "high winds" which had dried out fields left sodden by heavy, and late, snowmelt.

    Large lag

    US spring wheat sowings overall jumped 20 points to 43% over the week, reducing a little their lag behind the typical pace.

    Farmers caught up a little on plantings of oats, rice and sugar beet too.

    However, with soybean sowings falling so far behind, the gap in the overall area which farmers have planted, compared with that suggested by typical planting rates, increased by a further 7m acres last week, on Agrimoney.com calculations.

    That raised it to more than 55m acres (225,000 square kilometres), an area the size of Minnesota, the 12th biggest US state or, in country terms, as big as Austria and Greece combined.

    Freeze damage

    The crop progress report also showed the condition of the US winter wheat crop holding steady at 32% rated in "good" or "excellent" condition, if down from a figure of 60% a year before.

    In Kansas, the top wheat-growing state, a review by scouts found that just over half the crop had some degree of damage to last month's late frosts.

    Nonetheless, they lifted by 1 point, to 28%, their estimate of the proportion of Kansas wheat in good or excellent condition.

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.