Core Inflation vs. headline inflation #

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Warrior4g, Oct 15, 2007.

  1. It's not "like", it is we "are".

    Think about it, the once third and second world is coming into the that of first world status. More demand on the earth's resources is going to put upward pressure on prices because in the best case scenarios producers will not be able to keep pace if the build out is too fast. That's the kicker, the pace of the build out.

    You have billions in China that are now demanding higher standards of living and retarding the pace of China's growth would put the political regime in power at risk. Instead, keep producing and building and export your inflation. That last thing producers worry about in China are standards for labor or environment which lets them acquire resources much faster and cheaper. You honestly don't think the Chinese are buying the lion's share of their oil in the open markets do you?

    All the while they accumulate our dollars and buy our debt to keep us able to spend, well now that horse is dying a slow death due to the dollar. What next? Next is of course shares in companies, definitely not real estate, not yet at least; that's a depreciating asset right now.

    Of course there's inflation, coupled with a declining dollar, we are only a couple of quarters away from bonafide stagflation and many can make a very valid argument that's already happening. For economics to work there has to be downside for upside. We have had a lot of upside on many different fronts, the downside in many areas has yet to be felt. US real estate is only in the mid stages of its downside, equities have yet to reflect any, the dollar - well hopefully its about done, but my heart of hearts doubts that very much.

    All this being said with a US Fed VERY PREPARED to cut again. In the US, a down real estate market coupled with a down equities market has yet to be seen. It could be close at hand. Generation "Y" has yet to really feel the power of a recession/economic downturn.

    Good Luck!
     
    #11     Oct 16, 2007