Corbyn as PM - price target for Sterling?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by pinetboltz, Jan 18, 2019.

  1. pinetboltz

    pinetboltz

    lol, if GBP depreciates a lot in that instance perhaps there'll be even more interest from property buyers from overseas.

    in the US there's a saying how real estate prices in New York and Boston are pretty much insulated for the most part against downturns (maybe a 5-10% drawdown, but still)

    i think with any further weakness in the pound, it could make real estate even more appealing for foreign buyers in prime London - already some of those apartments are looking like good buys compared to what you get in North America, and it's hard to imagine that London ever becomes less important of a city than say, Boston or Chicago, regardless of the actual Brexit terms/ not to mention if another referendum takes place and ppl decide to reverse course
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2019
    #11     Jan 20, 2019
  2. pipeguy

    pipeguy

    0 probability of this event. At least after the confidence vote which supported May second time.
     
    #12     Jan 20, 2019
  3. pinetboltz

    pinetboltz

    Last edited: Jan 20, 2019
    #13     Jan 20, 2019
  4. Sig

    Sig

    A correllary of Godwin's law seems to be that as any political discussion involving conservatives and economics grows longer the chance of "turning into the next Venezuela" being invoked approaches 1 at which point the person invoking it has lost the argument.
     
    #14     Jan 20, 2019
    sle likes this.
  5. tomorton

    tomorton


    Nevertheless, its still true to say that Corbyn is an ideologically driven Marxist-Leninist which makes him dangerous to the UK economy but he is older so probably would only be in No.10 for 1 five-year term (or less). That is good but he might stand aside in favour of John McDonnell, a younger and perhaps more vehement communist.
     
    #15     Jan 21, 2019
    gkishot likes this.
  6. pipeguy

    pipeguy

    Pound rose above 1.30, any thoughts why it happened?
     
    #16     Jan 23, 2019
  7. Sig

    Sig

    I'll venture a guess, the chance of a revote on Brexit has gone up in conjunction with the GBP going up, and a re-vote means a pretty good chance Brexit doesn't happen. A look at the long-term chart of GBP vs Brexit shows a clear negative correlation between the chances of Brexit happening and the GBP's strength. Ironic, given the hyperbole about communists and Venezuela and all that. Especially ironic given that a hallmark of Venezuela's failed economy is their rapidly falling currency, sound familiar?
     
    #17     Jan 23, 2019
  8. PLease PLease NO!
     
    #18     Jan 25, 2019
  9. tomorton

    tomorton


    Parliamentary disagreement increases the probability of a second referendum. This makes No-Brexit more possible, as neither major party is willing to commit itself to defying the 2016 referendum result. But a second referendum also makes an extension to Article 50 more probable, which in turn makes a more favourable revised Brexit deal more probable.

    If Parliamentary support is not forthcoming before 29/03, I can't believe the PM would allow a no-deal Brexit to occur without a second referendum to give her specific authority on this (i.e. allow her to avoid the blame). She is no risk taker.
     
    #19     Jan 25, 2019
  10. pipeguy

    pipeguy

    I guess Pound rallies because parties started to make progress in negotiations, May gradually gains support from other parties, because she made some concessions.
     
    #20     Jan 26, 2019