PSAR crosses are fun to play too. Not all are reliable, it takes some experience to figure out which ones are better, but once you have this experience you could use them as a completely independent setup, but perhaps even better in conjunction with other setups you already use. For instance, this particular PSAR could have been used for the first 30 min breakout. Either 62 FR pullbacks or entries on a strong trend (here you use PSAR, MA cross, etc).
Using both TICK and TRIN can only help. How much more conflicting can it get, when both TRIN and TICK and stochastics are indicating the same? It can only help because you restrict yourself to higher probability setups and you limit the number of trades that can go wrong. You can trade based on TRIN and TICK only, but you cannnot do worse when you check stochastics at the same time, you will not get anything new, the stochastics is very likely to tell you what you already know from what TRIN and TICK are telling you. There is nothing conflicting here, just the opposite, TICK alone may not be enough, but when used along with TRIN it definitely improves your entry.
can be conflicting at times and that's when you do not trade even if TICK is suggesting so. Trade only when the conflict gets resolved and when this happens it is usually the best point to enter.
No trades today. Actually I woke up this morning feeling like I had a bad cold. Watched the market for 45 minutes, then slept till 1:00 EST. I briefly considered a long entry off the secondary support area around 2:30ish, but passed on it because I would have liked to have seen a stochastic divergence compared to the low put in at 11:00 and also TRIN kept making new highs. May or may not trade tomorrow. Depends on how I feel. I'd like to get over this cold in time for Thanksgiving. I'm spending it at my parents' house and I don't want to spread my germs!!
Thanks, Wally. I'll try my best. BTW, did you catch the Type II bearish stochastics divergence (lower price peak, higher stochastics peak) at 12:20 today? I woke up too late, but that one was good for a handle.
No, I was not watching that at all because last night one of my systems told me to go short and today another one gave me a short entry and I scored 25.25 ES pts so I am very happy today. The third one did not give any signal because of the morning gap down. Something very similar happened on November 7th when we started a 3 day decline. Well, I am curious if things will repeat themselves. Have no opinion about that yet, no signals to confirm that. I now see what you mean. Also TRIN was very low at that time (testing LOD), close to the lower BB and its stochastics was oversold too. TICK just bounced off upper BB. Another hint: 200 MA on 3 min chart was a barrier to any upside action today. See where it was at 12:20. Also today, you would have scored nicely with the first 30 min bar breakout. You see, discretionary trading can be fun, but right now my systems are doing so well that I kind of have no incentive to do it. I will have to write up my business plan for discretionary trading and I know that this is going to be a pain in the butt, just too many ideas, too many elements. I will see what I will come up with over this long weekend. I believe that what you do is very sound and you should stick to it. I used to do things like that when I was trading OEX options (except the first 30 min breakout) and they did work. Take care, wally_
Wally Would you mind going into what you look for in Trin? I watch Tick because at times it actually leads and for it divergences but have always found Trin to lag and not of much use on short term charts.
I use TRIN mostly for confirmations of what TICK is trying to tell me. This is not a primary indicator in itself, but I use it in combination with TICK. The thing is that sometimes TICK and TRIN are both rising or both are declining and in a case like that I would not trust TICK at all. I would wait until this conflict is resolved. The best points to enter are when both TICK and TRIN hit the UBB (LBB for TRIN) or vice versa. I then wait for TICK to bounce off the UBB and for TRIN to start rising off the LBB. It's good to watch the TRIN stochastics to see that it's oversold (or overbought). I use 5 min charts for both TICK and TRIN. When you see something like that, your price chart is usually exhibiting some stochastics divergence on 3 min charts which is just another confirmation that a reversal is very close. In this way you get higher probability entries compared to what you could get using only TICK. UBB=Upper Bollinger Band, LBB=Lower Bollinger Band I use BBs around 20 MA with 2 standard deviations. Using TICK divergences is a good and well known idea, too. I use it, with at least 30 min separation between TICK extremes, the bigger the time separation the better. There are other ways to use TRIN too, but since I am not sure how reliable they can be, I would not like to comment on them. Hope this helps. wally_