Copper - Tariff affect ?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by syswizard, Jun 15, 2018.

  1. September copper has broken badly.....$2.62.
    How low can it go ?
     
    #61     Aug 15, 2018
  2. maxinger

    maxinger


    next level 2.50, then 2.0, then 1.25

    and if 1.25 can't hold, then 0.60

    1.25 level was during the last recession in 2008, ie 10 years ago.
     
    #62     Aug 15, 2018
  3. With those numbers, you are calling for a worldwide recession.
    Really ?
     
    #63     Aug 15, 2018
  4. themickey

    themickey

    #64     Aug 15, 2018
  5. #65     Aug 23, 2018
  6. themickey

    themickey

    Don't think so. :(
     
    #66     Aug 23, 2018
  7. Exactly....new tariffs took all the metals down....again.
    Now if we ever get a finalized agreement, there will be a sharp reversal.
    Right now, the tariffs are definitely going to cause some future inflation in the USA.
    Inflation usually good for commodities....especially metals.
     
    #67     Aug 23, 2018
  8. Unless I'm stupid, this looks like a classic double bottom ...no ?
     
    #68     Sep 6, 2018
  9. treeman

    treeman

    It would have to get above 2.7675 first to consider. I'm really bearish. I've got a stop sell order to get back short on this thing (I'm kicking myself for bailing about a month ago). The metals are still getting hammered, and it's looking more and more like commodities in general are toast. I've been short silver (with my stop nowhere in sight anymore). This last rally stopped me out of gold, but if it cracks 1170, I'm back short, and the Yen can't rally off of 3-yr support (yet). I keep waiting to get stopped out of the Yen, and think everyday, "I can't believe I'm still making money on this position" as I've been expecting it to rally towards 0.0094 but it's not, so I'm still in. I've considered doubling my sizes, but that would break my rules. If the Yen closes below .00885, I'm probably going to double dip as I think the metals will be done for a while. I'm short PA, and went back for more.

    Oil is the only one holding up, for now, but even that is beginning to look pretty weak. I'm looking for CL to reach 62.50 (I'd short it, but I don't short bull markets), at which point I might buy but it would have to show me one hell of a convincing W (oil is in a bull market). If oil breaks down below that, there goes the TSX, and the Australian market (possibly). This thing could be a bloodbath in the making. We will see.

    The commodities right now are going to take a deft hand. Let's see if I got it. This is the first time I'm experiencing something like this. I'm short everything, and I mean everything (the yen, the euro, ZB, SI, PA, just got out of lumber, waiting on GC and HG, CL), except the US equity markets.

    Having said that, it could all rally from here, but this picture (attached) is UGLY and does not inspire confidence. And that's the daily chart. The monthly (also attached), is worse (take out the last month in the picture as it represents 2 days of trading).
     
    #69     Sep 6, 2018
  10. themickey

    themickey

    Yup, copper stocks showing strong moves on close here downunder, could be the beginning of a bounce, not strong enough move though to be conclusive just yet, but you have made a good observation.
     
    #70     Sep 6, 2018