Apparently, the move in the calendar spreads yesterday was due to China's flood. The serial expiries curve is still out of whack because of the move in Sep. I read somewhere that the LME/COMEX arb blew out. Any idea why U/V is so strong compared to V/X? It should have corrected already. Not a metal expert...I was thinking I may be missing a fundamental/delivery/warehouse subtlety...
The flood in China only had 63 deaths though although USA officials issued heartfelt condolences to China for the loss. LOL And the flooded place is not even a copper-mining place so not sure if the flood has anything to do with it. According to this article, the largest copper-mining place is the Jiangxi province. https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/top-five-copper-mining-countries/#:~:text=China – 1.7 million tonnes&text=Jiangxi Copper is one of,mine in China's Jiangxi Province. I believe the flooded place is Henan or something, mostly an agricultural place, according to what I read somewhere. And besides China is only the 3rd largest copper producer in the world. It actually imports a large amount of copper. So not sure if the copper price movement is anywhere related to the flood in China.
That's what I read in the news somewhere. It can be an easy culprit for journalists. China is actually the largest consumer of copper so can it be that they anticipate larger demand in the next few month for reconstruction, reparation...? I don't know. Anyway, the serial expiries are still out of whack, especially U/V. Any guesses ?
current price cme copper futures 4.5420 U contract (near month price is higher than the rest) 4.5065 X contract (low OI) 4.4975 Z contract Shanghai INE copper futures 64500 U contract (near month price is lower than the rest) 64610 X contract (low OI) 64630 Z contract (low OI) I doubt many people do calendar spread on copper.
Am short copper, took number of tries/hedged at highs and last rally couple more tries to try to add on. I stopped few decades ago dealing with fundamentals, can't test them, only testable is when news reports comes out.