Kudos to you, Ken, for having the cajones to stay with it for the long term. I bought QC at 1.78 but took my meager profit long ago at around 2.00. Do you often use futures as a long term vehicle and just roll them before delivery? In theory, it makes sense but I don't seem to have the psychological makeup to withstand the swings on the charts......although it doesn't seem to bother me in equities. Stosh
Stosh, if you look at monthly charts it will give you a better long term perspective, imo. On monthly charts you can see trend easier. That's what bothers me now about copper. I'm coming off long term trades in Crude and Gold (5 yrs) so obviously I think long term. Jim Rogers is my hero( have you read his book?) as was T Boone Pickens when every time I was about to sell, he'd come on tv and say oil is going to... and I held an equal amount of gold contracts (20 each). Try looking at basic patterns on monthly charts- I think it will help you ride out the corrections. I mean rounded tops and bottoms, double tops and bottoms spread out over a long time frame (like S&P 500). Go back and see the double bottom at 800. How smart do you have to be to make that trade? Forget about H&S- seems to be an obsolete pattern I don't know why. Look what just happened in daily S&P. That's a perfect example- an obsolete pattern in too short a time frame. However, I must say back in April I saw an inverted H&S on the daily and damn, if it didn't go up the measured amount. The exception that proves the rule. Again, I consider H&S inferior pattern but it kept me long trading the ES and I said so. I watched those numbskulls continuosly short that ES and laughed my a$$ off! I'm still laughing and still long. The only short term trades I've made lately, besides trading the ES was buying and selling MSFT and Ford. When I saw Ford dip below a dollar a light went off. It was so close to zero it was a no brainer. I thought MSFT was OB a couple weeks ago and sold it on a gap up day. Hope that helps you. Commodities will be the play going forward and I intend to be selectively long.
Thanks, Ken, for sharing your trading philosophy. Hopefully, it will help me develop the nerves to hold positions longer. Stosh
Heh no problem. My long term trading is no secret. It's so basic and simple. I guess patience is the key once you identify a trade you want to make. Remember to key off the monthly chart (10 years worth of data). Try to stick to simple basic patterns, and obvious trades are the best. This copper one was a no brainer so far. Good luck to you.
Thanks, Ken. One more question, if you will. When you acquire a futures position that you intend to hold for a long time, do you usually buy a distant month contract, or do you just buy the most liquid month and plan on doing a lot of rolling? For instance, you held gold and oil for about 5 years.....how did you do that? Stosh
Always in the one with most open interest. I didn't say it was no work. At no time am I in the market without a stop. I also like big numbers like 100 in crude and 1000 in gold. Generally first time through a number like that there is a pullback. With oil it was slight (the first time), gold much more so. These become easy targets.
I'm moving my trailing stop up a bit because I'm nervous (short term), and going back to lurking occassionally on ET.
Looks like the bull move remains intact. My stop remains just below yesterdays low just in case because I am still nervous. I always let it run and trail the stop to take me out (took 5 years for Gold). If I get stopped out, I will wait and re-enter at a later date. I traded copper with this crazy psychic bitch a while back. I wonder what ever happened to her? Nobody else trading it? If not, why not?