Convinced on strategy but...

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by callahan, May 19, 2011.

  1. Well i hv the same goal, I have close to $35,000 now, and I wish to hit $50,000 by end of year. Problem is even if I hit $100,000, I can at most make $10000-$15000 a year, or 10-15% assumption I have been successful on an average year.

    Problem is can u live with 10-15k a year, or est. 1-1.5k a month ? Manaing a large portfolio is actually almost similar to managing a small portfolio, just that its 10x, but losses are big too.
     
    #11     May 22, 2011
  2. ammo

    ammo

    u know the chance of a stock u own ,opening down 10-20-30 % the next morn is there,its not balls you lack ,it's healthy fear,use options to increase your profit and reduce your risk
     
    #12     May 22, 2011
  3. Since you have backtested the strategy, I'll assume you possess a level of computer skills. So...

    Let me start by saying that, no, trading 10k versus 100k is not the same. Scaling up is always painful. Reason being, what if the day you increase 10x, you have bad day. All the profits you made in the last few months trading at 1x are now gone in a day. It willl mess with you pyschologically unless you've been doing this for a long time. It will create fear and anxiety.

    Next is that 5 years backtesting... it is OK, but, do you really have a handle on the risk here? My read of your post is that you don't.

    A portfolio based strategy has several risk factors. Broad market correlation, individual position sizing, leverage and most importantly long/short exposure limits. What if you're net long 100k with 20 stocks at 5k a piece on a 100k account. The market takes a complete shit, 300 point down day on the dow. Since you hold 24 hours, the next day the market is down another 150. In an environment like this, you might get extra f--ked because 90% of all stocks are going to move down, and, if your strategy likes volatility, it might have 3x++ the percentage loss on capital compared to the index. Couple that with some overnight leverage at 2x and you may be down 30%...

    Are you OK with a bad day where you lose 30k?

    It will happen given some of the assumptions above.

    If there is one piece of advice I can offer is that having good entries and exits is maybe 20% of trading succesfully and confidently at larger size. The other 80% is preparing for the worst case scenario via testing exposure limits, position limits, model allocation etc etc.

    Mike
     
    #13     May 22, 2011