convexx's "hitting bids and lifting offers" ETF options

Yeah, I can't see it tomorrow, certainly. Are you using ATM straddle prem? Anyway, 1908 is pretty ambitious. 88 was assured w/o NFLX. What a crazy mkt.

 

the weekly 450 straddle was around 30, that's a nasty move down, will probably rally a bit tomorrow. Then there's googl...

 

and AAPL.

 

Long ES 51.50. Two per 100K. We have to drift higher from the NFLX over-reaction. NDX positions are up 10 pts combined. Hope to be able to hold into AH tomorrow.

 

flat 25.50. Plan on getting flat SPX, NDX shortly after the open.

 

How is this holding up like this? Now at 11-- I expected zero today

 

Shear trading ignorance


Gamblers mentality - risk big - to win big (can't risk a % of one's bet)


Trader's mentality - utilize capital to make whatever - while only risking a very small % of said capital on each trade

Jesus F'n Christ

RN

 

If you are making your living off of your own money, then obviously you are correct. However, history has proven that Wall Street OPM loves big risk takers and will reward them win or lose.

 

Primary (chronological from entry):

VXX 132: scratch (2 tick gain)
SPY Sep26 132 calls: buy 2.43 offer/sell 2.83 bid -- 16.4% gain on debit
NDX Sep25 132 calls: 17.00 filled/sell 25.70 bid -- 51.1% gain on debit
*FB 132: half-position 2.75% gain on debit
SPX Sep26 132 calls: buy 23.20 offer/sell 28.65 bid -- 23.5% gain on debit
RUT Oct6 132 calls: buy 28.65 offer/sell 24.90 bid -- (11.7%) loss on debit
NDX Oct3 121 puts: buy 75.50 offer/sell 77.20 bid -- 2.2% gain on debit
GOOG 231 puts: buy 20.50 offer/sell 23.55 bid -- 14.9% gain on debit

*FB accounted for at half-size

99.2% gain on debit; 9.92% gain on portfolio at 10%; 4.96% gain on portfolio at 5%

Hedges:

NQZ4: -13 points (0.26%) loss on portfolio
QQQ: $188/$100K notional; (0.19%) loss on portfolio

9.47% return on portfolio at 10% allocation on primary trades. PTTDD: 1.17% -- less that NBBO width. Gains >8x risk.

=======================================

SPX Oct10 45/75/2040 231 in puts; 0.28% net
SPX 15/55/95/35 put condor; 0.13% net
NDX 4000/4080/4120 132 calls + hedge; -8.2%; -0.41% net
SPX 1920/1950/2010 put 231 + hedge; 11.6%; 0.58% net
GOOG 555/575/585 132; 0.9% net
NDX Oct16 3900/3950/4050 231; scratch (slight +)
SPX 1900/1940/1980/2020 put condor; 12%; 0.6% net
NDX 55/00/90 231; -4.1%; -0.20% net
"b-day" NDX 3850/4050/4150 132 calls; -2.3% net
GOOG 505/565/595; -0.85
NDX 3725/3875/3950 132 calls; -0.35% net
3625/3825/3925 132 call asym; -0.43% net
SPX 1835/1935 DNT; -1.52% net
1825/1925 DNT; DNF -5.2%
SPY 180C; -0.94% net

-9.71% return on second series. -9.71% + 4.96%: -4.75% return on portfolio

 

Such blowup! How Niederhoffer! Wow!