Taking you at your word…the envelopes use recent historical data to calculate where the latest statistics suggest price is likely to reverse direction (all things being equal) based on reoccurring price patterns. However, when price does NOT reverse direction, the envelopes’ bands will theoretically continue to compensate for the abnormal price action indefinitely, so the moving averages are there to suggest when whatever factors are impacting price have finally begun to relinquish their influence so that the asset can at last begin initiating a new trend.