I am not surprised. Is anyone here surprised? "The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that consumers ratcheted back their credit by a larger-than-anticipated $21.6 billion from June, the most on records dating to 1943. Economists expected credit to drop by $4 billion." http://www.cnbc.com/id/32738637 We are the consumer of global output (70% of our economy in fact is based on Americans consuming and borrowing money to buy foreign goods and services) I am not surprised. Right now Americans are busy servicing debt and not borrowing. They fear unemployment, large numbers are underemployed. These Harvard grads seem to get it wrong, they were surprised that the property market was a bubble and now they are still surprised. The problem with Analysts is they need to get out of the office and look around and make real life analysis not look at computer models. Look at LTCM for example.