Trend Fader, I must say that you are getting to be so amazingly predictable that I don't even need to take a look at my watch to tell what time it is anymore. First of all, you don't trade Bonds or Gold so why do you care? Second of all, the stockmarket seems to be taking everything in stride today, right? Perhaps a little bit more pricing power by Corporate America might be good for the manufacturing sector of our Economy, eh? Naaa, that can't be it. It wouldn't fit into your perma-Bear case! Now go ahead and post a couple of "cut and paste" Yahoo Finance articles to read that have quotes from varoius Fed Governor's regarding the "stirring of inflation". You seem to be very good at that!
after painstakingly studying multiple markets for many many years and analyzing the data over and over again. i have reluctantly come to the conclusion that Trend Fader is correct and waggles is incorrect!!!
How come the big PLUNGE in the Bond Market today has not lead to a big decline in the Homebuilding stocks? Last time I looked at my screen today I saw: CTX: -.08 HOV: -.20 LEN: +.25 PHM: -.12 RYL: +.66 Care to answer me that? Oh, and don't mind changing your screen name. I can deal with the fact that you have more than just one alias!
lol lol lol.....just kidding waggie... actually, i am a scalper and i just let the market tell me what to do. if i had a long term outlook it would definitely be bearish. but becoming dogmatic about direction kills my short term profits so i try to remain neutral. imho, trend fader makes some very valid points.... i'll take a trader who manages risk over someone that thinks he can predict the market.
You've got to be kidding, right? You mean "managing-risk" like James Stock says he does by selling "naked" calls on the S&P? Or do you mean how Trend Fader (who already has gone on record as saying that he does not use mechanical stops), uses only "mental" ones? Pick your poison Bro!
been using mental stops for years myself. but no..i am not kidding. actually i hope you are kidding. exiting losers and rarely adding to them is extrememly important to my trading style. and i don't give a rat's ass how much more the builders are going to run up...i think that is a fools game right now if one plans on holding them long term.
I wholeheartedly agree that cutting your losers is extremely important. But I also think that you can really put the wind at your back if you look at some charts, identify the trend, and confirm that trend by using a few significant moving averages. Trend Fader does not believe in identifying the current market's trend and riding it for all it's worth, nor does he believe in using tools of technical analysis, let alone charts. In fact, he has been fading this big bull move all the way up. Even the other day he admitted that the market was oversold enought to rally, but he said that he refused to play the longside and would only short the rally. Strange. In fact, show me one post of his in which he has put on a trade from the LONG side? I dare ya.
Waggie.... is very bullish as the market tops out... its only natural. Do you think everyone is gonna be bearish as markets top out? USA has serious issues that are on hold right now and being ignored... eventually they will bite us in the ass. As if to think that when the stimulus ends and rates starts to go up the economy will just rebound and everything will be great.. lol Lets start thining longer term.. when the dust settles in. --MIKE
i've been in this business a decent amount of time and i may be wrong but trend fader sounds like he is a good trader. granted i have only read his most recent posts but i wouldn't bet against him making some serious $$$$$$$$ in the next year or two.
You are kidding right, Trend Fader? Why do you have to "think long-term" when you are a trader that is scalping the market or trading over a period of several days at the most. How does one make money off of "thinking about the long-term"? Please explain this, as I have never ever seen the connection between trading over the course of several hours and several days and long-term economic conditions.