It wont sink us.. it will destroy us. The biggest risk will be if rates start climbing too fast for the banks to handle which in turn will cause massive problems to our highly leveraged baking system. This in turn will cause the housing market to collapse and we will see a Japan type of problem all over again in the US. This is exactly what we are setting up for. We are supposed to learn from history but we never really do. Greenspan is leading the US into the toilet. We consistently are only concerned about today and not tomorrow. Social Security and Medicare are a big joke.. and housing prices are becoming absurd. National Debt is out of control at 7.1 trillion.. thats an avg of 2 billion a day since Sept 30, 2003... goto http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/ Everyone is going to keep on saying look at the past few decades none of this really mattered.. thats why no one really cares... but when things are on the verge of chaos or collapse thats when we will begin pointing fingers... and greenspan would have already retired. What will the future look like?
Waggie is a broker, needs to tell people that the economy had improved and that % of unpaid dept is meaningless because there is less bankruptcy this year. Like most brokers they gota tell you to buy......or make a case to buy each dip. Now i play both sides of the market...however.....i do see a stronger case for the bears. Economy has improved, ...well hell yea it has but comparied to what? Last years numbers, lol or the year before that? The recovery is very bleak and has taking longer than even SOROS predicted. "5.6% may be the jobless claims numbers but unemployment is at disturbing levels. read somewhere today that close to 15 million are unemployed...appx 10.9%." BINGO...waggie needs to read between the lines....and not spout off CNBC numbers. We have not keeped pace with the % of job creation needed to bring the levels of TRUE UNemployment more managable. Economic stimulation by the feds has only caused a housing boom, not an economic boom. It hardly jump started the economy overall, just helped people aquire more debt .....and you know the 9 to 5ers , they got have a 500, 000 home when they hardly bring home 100g a year before Taxes. Cars....well Zero down, Zero financing was supposed to be short lived, well it seems to be the norm now....... Waggies qoute on Repos kills me, look at what F and GM did with sales the last 8 quarters.....LOL.......but earnings are around the corner so that will soon come to light. Sure.....I give Waggie that Earnings have improved, but by how much? The anaylst low balled so many earnings, and they continue to do so. Guidence isnt so hot. OIL....getting higher and higher.....yea, thats real bullish. Geo-political events--- ehhh yea thats real bullish I can go on and on and on .........let the waggies buy the dips, to be honest, i buy some stuff on the dips and i short some stuff. so, buying the proper stuff on a dip, like an ELN is profitable. However, to try and make a case for a bull market at this point is laughable.......purely a funny argument. Ohh yea, did i mention rate raise , although 1 or even 1.75 basis point raise over two quarters or one move will not effect the overall rates to much, but it will effect the psychology of the market the day the first hike comes....... Trend,....I agree with you based on facts, market action and my experience as a trader that makes a sole living at this madness.
Talking about GM.. take a look at this article... "GM increasing outsourcing of white-collar work to cut costs" http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040323/na_fin_com_us_gm_overseas_jobs_2.html Gee lets continue to buy crappy American made cars and support the economy too bad they dont support us.
Thanks for the reply. Actually, I did not consider the outsourcing factor. Seems there are so many things to consider. Also, I agree with you on the Fibs analysis to. Reminds me of psychic mumbo jumbo - cold readers - like that guy on "Crossing Over" cable show. Nothing but after the fact BS - left better for fun. I think you have valid claims here Trend. Thanks for posting some replies to my questions and good trading to you :+)).
Waggie I just layed out a very detailed bearish fundemental argument.. and I hope you wont go around ET saying that I have never provided some type of thesis behind my bearishness. If you do.. I will refer them to this thread. Just keep on buying the dips until the cows come home. --MIKE
ertrader, I wholeheartedly agree with you there. More fuel to the fire . .. "OIL!!!!" Also, I think you are right on the money . . . earnings . . . compared to what! Sheeese . . . how many analysts does it take to screw in a light bulb? Good going. Thanks for the post tonight.
I'm glad you are so bearish. Please convince as many other people as poss of your bearish arguments. The fact that you and your friends exist means there is still money on the side to drive the market up some more. The only bull that rises is one for which there are many doubts.
The people that have the courage to look outside of the headlines and try to anticipate where the economy and the market will be heading in the next 3-6 months are always the ones that make the really big $. The big boys that were buying stocks after the Iraq war and the ones that are shorting as the Nasdaq and other indices were starting to diverge were the ones that made more $ than most people on this board can imagine. Problem is that most people are more interested in talking about candlestick patterns and stochastic crosses. --MIKE
By the way . . . found it very interesting . . . had probs with my HP/COMPAQ computer yesterday morning about an hour before trading hours . . . . called COMPAQ support line (1 - 800 -something something . . .) spent 45 minutes on the phone with this lady just getting my personal info. entered into their data base. . . . Took so long because my "OVERSEAS" connection to INDIA!!!!! was so horrible we could not understand everything we needed to communicate over the garble telephone lines. Shoulda known . . . jobs . . . INDIA . . . . jobs . . . . INDIA. gooo - night. Obviously she was able to talk me through a quick fix. . . . but sheese . . . INDIA!!!
I like to consider myself the smart money. Actually your friend Waggie represents the CNBC ra-ra buy the dips bull majority.