Consumer Confidence and Credit Card Deliq. GOING DOWN THE TOILET

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Trend Fader, Mar 23, 2004.

  1. Concerns over investor confidence are highlighted in the FT this afternoon. The
    report notes that the State Street investor confidence dropped to 92.2 in March
    from Dec. 2003 highs of 109.00. This follows the news yesterday that the UBS
    investor confidence survey also dropped to 85 from 97 in February and January
    highs of 108.00. This may see increased attention emerge too on the ABC
    News/Money Magazine consumer confidence poll due later today. The last result
    was at -22 down from -3 the week of Jan. 18th.
    Further signs of pressure in the US economy came from the news today that credit
    card delinquencies in Q4 had reached record highs. The news may not be enough to
    push the USD out of its range, but may raise concerns over the outlook for the
    economy going forward. EUR/USD trades at 1.2326 and USD/JPY at 106.75.

    [IFR Forex Watch]
  2. Please someone tell me why someone should be buying stocks right now?

    Smart money is unloading profits and shorting into strength.

  3. gam1111


    You are right that insiders and hedge funds have been selling into strength every chance they get.

    Interest Rates are beyond low. Real Interest rates are negative. That makes some case for equities. This is the argument for that, although a losing one for last 8 weeks or so.
  4. gam1111


    what's FT?
  5. Please tell us why you're talking your book so much :D
  6. FT = Financial Times

    :eek: :eek: :eek:
  7. I honestly believe we might heading for a complete melt down in the stock market. Wouldnt be surprised to see the dow trade sub 10k for quite some time.

    The only thing to watch for is the capture of Bin Laden.. that can give the markets a huge pop.. but I will be selling into it.
  8. Another fantastic indicator that anticipates market direction from our perma-Bear, Trend Fader!


    Credit card accounts that were more than 30 days "past due" for the 4th quarter of last year was 4.43% vs the previous quarter ( 3rd quarter ) in which the rate was at 4.09% And during this time, the NASDAQ rallied 25%, from a low of 1600 at the beginning of June of 2003 all the way to 2000 at the end of December of 2004, and to almost 2200 by mid-January of this year. So much for "past due" credit cards being a precursor of bearish stock trends.

    Meanwhile, Trend Fader also fails to tell us that delinquencies of "other" types of consumer loans such as installment loans, including home equity and auto loans fell to the lowest level since 1995.

    Moreover, Ford Motor Credit Company, the finance arm of the nation's 2nd largest car maker announced today that repossessions fell in January and February, in the latest sign that consumer credit quality is starting to improve. The percentage of customers more than 60 days delinquent on their loans also fell, to 0.26 percent in January and 0.21 in February from an average of 0.42 percent in Q-1 of last year.
  9. For me its a tossup- the Financial Times, BBC or Al Jazzera.

  10. Nice how u ommited the last line of your articles of reference from Ford...
    "But with the labor market still struggling, consumer credit has not fully recovered. Credit card delinquencies in the fourth quarter jumped to a record high, according to the American Bankers Association, and mortgage foreclosures rose, according to the MBA. "

    I am not a purma bear.. but right now I am bear and continue to profit. What are u doing right now.. calling this another buy the dips as the market continues to get trashed.

    #10     Mar 23, 2004