i think,that this forum is missing such a thread now ,here is the latest: yesterday,in EU somehow all the media started to talk about "world" currency the last time,that was "heavilly" discussed was last summer,just before the dollar rose very sharply i dont know why have a strange feeling...... some central bank is thinking to dump some gold and helping itself with how concerned they are about the dollar........ or may be the oil "bubble" guys are thinking to get out........no hurracains to help them this year
some people like to collect coins,other paintings.......i am starting to collect put options on the oil we'll see what kind of collection i will gather from now,to december and how valuable they might become till christmas....... even a christmas tree i might build with them .....
well since buying options to leverage timing and directional guesses in the markets has proven to be a big loser historically: Statistically you'll have a lump of coal for Xmas
well,thanks for the history lesson. actually,to be correct i am collecting put options by buying calendar OTM spreads,not buying just naked puts. and......these money were easy made-last year,when your history lesson had proven wrong i am just hoping that goldman will show to "upgrade" the oil to over 100$.......this will be the last sign for me,to believe,that oil is going to crush so i am waiting for them to say something like the economy improved and the oil supply is "tightening"......and right away i am getting fully invested in my put collectables if i am wrong-thats the life of the speculator-i pay with my own money for my mistakes.......but actually these money were also made last year,when goldman said in mid summer,they expect the oil to go to 200$ ........ i kind of have a feeling ,that next week we might see the first dive......just before expiration..... i love goldman......they think they can rule the commodity markets,and actually they really do........but if you know how to read between the lines their "predictions",you might find it not very hard to make money...... this corelation between equity and oil is really about time to break apart..... besides,goldman play to use taxpayers(my) money,through the tarp,to bubble up the oil in elasticity frame of high supply/low demand with over a 100% spike is a great act of patriotism giving a hand to the russians and arabs is such a good gesture, i am overflown with passion about their good "faith" commitment. and as you already rose the history "talk",i would suggest that you give it a thought about which are the usa executive branches,cause they might not be exactly the same ones,you red about in history class
Saying you capitalized on what already happened is not all that difficult, that also goes for changing the situation and now having time spreads on. Dont let the decay in the futures get in the way of a good story and dont look at premium over cost to carry in the futures which those options are based it. Its so easy to sit back on a forum and talk about how easy it is to make money by reading GS or anyone / anything else but then again it is the internet and everyone is rich and good looking.
yes,i am extremely concerned about the time decay of my long calendars but must face this terrible inevitability ,mustn't i?
I guess you're not aware that the futures have time decay and since the different month options are based on different futures there is real decay there. Not to mention the fact that the further out future trades above/below the cost to carry based on speculation. Keep up the great work!