Considering Trading Treasury Bonds Futures

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by orderbookacolyte, Nov 24, 2019.

  1. Bum

    Bum

    Doing a little research on hedge funds (CTAs/managed futures) might get you a little invested for now while you're still a lawyer. Seeing how other successful traders trade might help if you're new to trading.

    I've been invested in multiple CTAs/managed futures for the past 15ish years with decent results. You need to know what to look for when doing your review or you'll get burned but it's similar to knowing how to review your own trading results. Number 1 on my list is maximum drawdown. If it's too high then I have no interest regardless of how good the returns are. If they don't control risk well, it's just a matter of time before the luck ends. Recovering from a sizable drawdown can take a looooong time if you should happen to get in shortly before a drawdown. Option writers can be dangerous unless they use protection (spreads/futures). I'm much more willing to give up return for smaller drawdowns. I'd also suggest getting into multiple programs to diversify. Better to split the money with multiple traders.

    There are several websites where you can do the review of programs. Jokertrader listed one above. Here's another one I use.
    https://www.iasg.com/en-us/managed-futures/performance

    If you find something you think you like, I'd be interested in giving it a peak to let you know why I would/wouldn't consider investing. In the end though it's your money, just my opinion.
     
    #11     Nov 24, 2019
  2. maxinger

    maxinger

    bonds are rather tradable especially those LT bonds.

    take about US Ultra T bond. margin requirement is $4.7k.
    and for Germany buxl , margin requirement is 5K eur.

    not sure how much of $3m you plan to use for trading.
    That amount is very high.


    # lots you could trade is 1000.
    so in one day, if you earn say 30 ticks, profit would be roughly 1000*300= > $300 K
    similarly losses of 15 ticks would be roughly > $150K

    But then,
    It could be a way to reach financial freedom in just few months or perhaps weeks.

    Happy trading !!
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2019
    #12     Nov 25, 2019
  3. gaussian

    gaussian

    Yeah seems absolutely stupid to start trading with 3MM. Pull some cash if you want to play the markets, but go get a financial advisor and lock in a nice consistent return so you can retire in your early 40s.

    Too much money, not enough sense.
     
    #13     Nov 25, 2019
  4. I don't have enough money to essentially retire

    I mean... you do. You absolutely do. Doesn't mean you should retire, or become a full time trader, but this is enough money to retire on. You probably shouldn't retire right now, but you can.

    I'd make the following suggestion:

    • It's really difficult to make money consistently from trading, especially if you have never done it before. But with $3 million you probably don't have to. Assuming you can live on twice the US average household income (let's call it $100K) you only need to earn 3.3% in dividends or coupons. Your first step should be to invest, say, 90% of your liquid net worth in a diversified portfolio with roughly about 15% in bonds, the rest in stocks. This will provide you with 'coupon income' of close to $100K a year after taxes.
    • With the rest of the money you could think about starting to trade.
    • With your background as a corporate lawyer you might be better off using your skills, rather than competing in an arena where you know nothing and the odds are stacked against you (primarily because of leverage and costs). So consider trading a medium to long term, bottom up equity value type strategy where your ability to look at a balance sheet may be valuable. Diversify your portfolio between 5 to 10 stocks.
    • This would mean you could continue working, since such a strategy requires just a few hours a week which you can do at weekends. Whilst you are working, see if you can get your expenses down to $100K a year. Alternatively, try and keep your expenses frozen whilst your 'coupon income' gradually grows.
    • If there are profits: Invest half your trading profits in your 'coupon income' portfolio. Reinvest the rest in your trading portfolio.
    • If there aren't profits: Maybe this isn't for you. But if you have diversified you will still have capital to play with. Think of it as an expensive hobby. And you may get the hang of it, eventually.
    • Take up other hobbies. Spend more time with your family. Start to think about what you'd actually do if you did retire. Many people in high pressure jobs have no idea what they would do if they did retire.
    • When you get to the point where your 'coupon income' is greater than your expenses (factoring in any future changes such as college tuition), and you know how you would like to spend your time, then feel free to retire (or maybe take a sabbatical from your job).
    • Spending all day in front of a screen punting treasury futures isn't my idea of fun, and I would be surprised if it would be yours. Committing yourself to that future without trying it seems crazy.
    • Keep at the equity investing, if you want, but maybe allocate 20% of your 'trading capital' to futures trading. Keep your risk low and diversify your positions. Don't just trade a single contract; you should have the money to trade several asset classes. Maybe you will be able to use some of your skills from equity trading. Maybe you will be good at it. Maybe you will enjoy it. But if you don't, you won't have lost anything.

    GAT

    PS I retired when I was 39, so I know what I'm talking about.
     
    #14     Nov 25, 2019
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  5. ZBZB

    ZBZB

    Fund an account and take a day off and try it with one lots. Then take a week off.

    With a large account you may be better off teaching yourself to invest. Take a subscription to seeking alpha and look at the newsletters available there.
     
    #15     Nov 25, 2019
  6. bbpp

    bbpp

    1. Do buy&hold investing for long term.
    2. Consider this portfolio: 50% gold, 50% TQQQ(3 X ETF for NDX). Hold them for long term.
    For the past 20 years, this portfolio made about 40 times profit, which translates into 20% average annual profit. The idea is if we have a bull market, TQQQ will gain big.If we have a bear market, gold will gain more than TQQQ lose, therefore to protect your portfolio.
    For example, during the 1999-2009 period, which were mostly bear market, and NDX was down,this portfolio profit about 2 times. During 2009-2019, we had a bull market,this portfolio profit about 20 times.
    3. If you think this is too risky, then trading is 100 times riskier.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2019
    #16     Nov 25, 2019
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  7. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    My friend. I'm usually a little bit of an asshole when it comes to replies to recommendations like these. I'm trying to improve my karma so I'm trying to be nice.

    Look at the prospectus of the of every leveraged fund and you will notice - by using simple calculus - that they are horrible, horrible long term investments. They leverage the daily return, so they will get killed by lack of autocorrelation

    Trade the QQQ on margin as investment, trade leveraged ETF's intraday, not vice versa.
     
    #17     Nov 25, 2019
    comagnum likes this.
  8. bbpp

    bbpp

    I don't want to argue with you.
    What you tell me, I already knew long time ago.
    What my post says, you did not understand.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2019
    #18     Nov 25, 2019
  9. Question: when u say 50% gold and 50% TQQQ how do u know how much TQQQ for every GC? Or is it same $ for GLD and TQQQ?

    sorry if I am reading this wrong
     
    #19     Nov 25, 2019
  10. bbpp

    bbpp

    It's GLD, not GC.
    Just check TQQQ and GLD's historical price for past 20 years.
    For TQQQ, I only have its price since 2010, when the ETF initiated.TQQQ was $1.6 in 2010 and it is $76.5 today.
    So I was underestimating its profit by about 130%. Since in 2010 NDX appreciated about 50% from 2009.
    You can adjust GLD or TQQQ's proportion in the portfolio according to your risk and reward appetite.
    Also if you are aggressive, you can add to TQQQ with the part of profit on GLD when TQQQ is beaten down huge in a bear market, and that may increase you profit potential by several 10 times in long run.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2019
    #20     Nov 25, 2019
    jokertrader likes this.