Consider These Two Trading Strategies...

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by Visaria, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. What about execution costs? Cost of borrowing in the case of leverage? Frequency of the trade?

    What about the expected variance?
     
    #21     Jan 28, 2016
  2. Visaria

    Visaria

    no, at the respective kelly or half kelly bets, the risk of ruin is the same for each strat. Same goes for 50% drawdown etc
     
    #22     Jan 28, 2016
    kut2k2 likes this.
  3. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    For purely binary outcomes there is no risk of bankupcy. It is only when multiple-outcome scenarios are "condensed" to the binary case that bankrupcy becomes an issue, because the estimated Kelly fraction is almost always oversized.

    For multiple-outcome scenarios, you'll get a better Kelly estimate here:

    http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/a-new-kelly-formula.291307/
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2016
    #23     Jan 28, 2016
    K-Pia likes this.
  4. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    Kelly Adjusted,
    With a risk of 2 for A (Blue)
    With a risk of 1 for B (Magenta)

    If I look at the payoff then B's better.
    Luckily we are free to choose.
    Gentlemen, my last words.
     
    #24     Jan 28, 2016
  5. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    #25     Jan 28, 2016
    Visaria likes this.
  6. Xela

    Xela



    K-Pia, I intend this helpfully, not critically, and am accordingly wording it as tactfully as I possibly can, but your time would really be far better spent reading an introductory trading/statistics book (such as Michael Harris's Profitability & Systematic Trading, which would really be very helpful to you), rather than continuing to defend here your rather idiosyncratic perspective on this subject.
     
    #26     Jan 28, 2016
  7. Visaria

    Visaria

    i want to explore this topic more in terms of impact on account size and leverage. Maybe later today or tomorrow.
     
    #27     Jan 28, 2016
  8. Xela

    Xela


    I wish I had your perspicacity, to be able to dismiss a well-recognised textbook as "bullshit" without reading it. That attitude's going to make learning anything close to impossible for you, because you're too busy trying to "be right": I strongly suspect that your realistic trading will begin only after you've changed it ... if you ever do. :wtf:
     
    #28     Jan 28, 2016
  9. Visaria

    Visaria

    #29     Jan 28, 2016
  10. I've use both kinds of strategies in the past, and for me it come down to 20% more winners, so I would choose strategy A. This is the kind of strategy I have now. the reasons why 1) because that is the only way you can trade against HFT systems, 1:1 risk/reward and a 60-65% win strategy to give you the edge. 2) The most imported reason I do it is to build my confidence (Trade your plan, not to make money). I been doing this a very long time and the one thing you will need everyday of your trading life will be confidence.
     
    #30     Jan 28, 2016