USO: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=uso http://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrons-recap-why-invest-oil-191514182.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-us-oil-rigs-keeps-180200605.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-recent-decline-oil-rigs-214955374.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/think-u-oil-production-slowing-154547254.html Trade: with USO at 19.62 Jan '17 15/20 bull call spread for a net debit of $264 Price............Profit / Loss............ROI % 11.25..............(264.00)............-100.00% 13.89..............(264.00)............-100.00% 15.00..............(264.00)............-100.00% 16.67................(97.30)..............-36.86% 17.64...................0.00..................0.00% 19.44................180.40................68.33% 20.00................236.00................89.39% 22.22................236.00................89.39% 25.00................236.00................89.39%
http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580451983146427978?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/define-depressed-153613584.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DG+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DG Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=dg Trade: with DG at 69.56 Jan '16 55/52.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/220 = 13.6% in 331 days or 15% annualized Prob = 76% Expectation = .76(30) - .19(220) - .05(110) = 22.8 - 41.8 - 5.5 = -24.5 Price..........Profit / Loss...............ROM % 45.00............(220.00).................-88.00% 50.00............(220.00).................-88.00% 52.50............(220.00).................-88.00% 54.70.................0.00......................0.00% 55.00...............30.00.....................13.60% 60.00...............30.00.....................13.60% 65.00...............30.00.....................13.60% 70.00...............30.00.....................13.60% 75.00...............30.00.....................13.60%
WMT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-wmt-beats-q4-144902258.html http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/wal-mart-beats-4q-profit-forecasts-29072988 http://fortune.com/2015/02/19/walmarts-holiday-results/?xid=yahoo_fortune http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-marts-ceo-just-made-145018105.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_McMillon http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WMT Key Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=WMT Competitors http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wmt Trade: With WMT at 83.51 Sept 92.5/97.5 Bear call spread for a net credit of $41 Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 210 days or 15.5% annualized Prob = 77% Expectation = .77(41) - .13(459) - .10(230) = 31.6 - 59.7 - 23 = -51 Price..............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 70.00................41.00....................8.90% 80.00................41.00....................8.90% 90.00................41.00....................8.90% 92.50................41.00....................8.90% 92.91..................0.00....................0.00% 97.50.............(459.00)...............-91.80% 100.00............(459.00)..............-91.80% 105.00............(459.00)..............-91.80% 115.00............(459.00)..............-91.80%
CL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colgate-palmolive-beats-4q-profit-122147676.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colgate-lifts-dividend-issues-share-184006855.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CL Key Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CL+Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cl Trade: With CL at 70.24 Jan '16 57.5/52.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 328 days or 8.4% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(35) - .02(465) - .05(233) = 32.6 - 9.3 - 11.6 = 11.7 Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 40.00...............(465.00)..............-93.00% 45.00...............(465.00)..............-93.00% 52.50...............(465.00)..............-93.00% 57.15....................0.00..................0.00% 57.50..................35.00...................7.50% 60.00..................35.00...................7.50% 65.00..................35.00...................7.50% 70.00..................35.00...................7.50% 80.00..................35.00...................7.50%
VDSI: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-impressive-cyber-security-stocks-014101282.html http://news.investors.com/022015-74...-rising.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...-dougherty-defends/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VDSI Interactive# Trade: With VDSI at 26.16 Sept 15/12.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $38 Yield = 38/212 = 17.9% in 206 days or 32% annualized stock price too erratic for probability and expectation calculations Price................Profit / Loss.............ROM % 10.00..................(212.00).................-84.80% 12.50................(212.00)...................-84.80% 13.85................(76.80).....................-30.72% 14.62...................0.00.........................0.00% 15.00.................38.00........................15.20% 20.00.................38.00........................15.20% 22.50.................38.00........................15.20% 25.00.................38.00........................15.20% 30.00.................38.00........................15.20% The trade is conservative but the stock is not
Conservative Option Trades is an oxymoron. Options are not a conservative way of trading, they are high risk no matter how you trade them.
CL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colgate-palmolive-beats-4q-profit-122147676.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colgate-lifts-dividend-issues-share-184006855.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CL Key Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CL Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cl Trade: With CL at 70.24 Jan '16 57.5/52.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 328 days or 8.4% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(35) - .02(465) - .05(233) = 32.6 - 9.3 - 11.6 = 11.7 Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 40.00...............(465.00)..............-93.00% 45.00...............(465.00)..............-93.00% 52.50...............(465.00)..............-93.00% 57.15....................0.00..................0.00% 57.50..................35.00...................7.50% 60.00..................35.00...................7.50% 65.00..................35.00...................7.50% 70.00..................35.00...................7.50% 80.00..................35.00...................7.50%
VDSI: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-impressive-cyber-security-stocks-014101282.html http://news.investors.com/022015-74...-rising.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...-dougherty-defends/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VDSI Interactive# Trade: With VDSI at 26.16 Sept 15/12.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $38 Yield = 38/212 = 17.9% in 206 days or 32% annualized stock price too erratic for probability and expectation calculations Price................Profit / Loss.............ROM % 10.00..................(212.00).................-84.80% 12.50................(212.00)...................-84.80% 13.85................(76.80).....................-30.72% 14.62...................0.00.........................0.00% 15.00.................38.00........................15.20% 20.00.................38.00........................15.20% 22.50.................38.00........................15.20% 25.00.................38.00........................15.20% 30.00.................38.00........................15.20% The trade is conservative but the stock is not
LOW: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lowes-low-q4-earnings-beat-130001932.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LOW Key Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=LOW http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LOW Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=low Trade: with LOW at 75.20 Oct 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $26 Yield = 26/474 = 5.6% in 233 days or 8.6% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(26) - .03(474) - .05(237) = 23.92 - 14.22 - 11.85 = -2.15 Price..............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 37.50...............(474.00)................-94.80% 45.00...............(474.00)................-94.80% 50.00...............(474.00)................-94.80% 54.74....................0.00....................0.00% 55.00..................26.00....................5.60% 60.00..................26.00....................5.60% 70.00..................26.00....................5.60% 80.00..................26.00....................5.60% 90.00..................26.00....................5.60%
ALKS: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alkermes-falls-pipeline-news-q4-143202065.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=alks Trade: with ALKS at 70.32 Aug 85/90 bear call spread for a net credit of $95 Yield = 95/405 = 23% in 177 days or 48% annualized Prob = 77% Expectation = .77(95) - .18(405) - .05(203) = 73.15 - 72.9 - 10.15 = -10 Price...................Profit / Loss............ROM % 52.56....................95.00.......................23.00% 64.06....................95.00.......................23.00% 76.17....................95.00.......................23.00% 85.00....................95.00.......................23.00% 85.95......................0.00.........................0.00% 88.28..................(233.20)....................-46.64% 90.00..................(405.00)....................-81.00% 100.39................(405.00)....................-81.00% 112.50................(405.00)....................-81.00%