Cree: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cree-misses-street-1q-forecasts-203623658.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cree-announces-increase-company-stock-223000643.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=CREE http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterde...nt-led-light-bulb-from-cree/?partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CREE Basic Chart#{"range":"5y","scale":"linear"} Trade: With CREE at 31.51 Jan 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 68 days or 28.2% annualized Prob = 90% Expectation = .9(25) - .01(475) - .09(237) = 22.5 - 4.75 - 21.3 = -3.6 Price...........Profit / Loss.......ROM % 15.00...........(475.00).............-95.00% 20.00...........(475.00).............-95.00% 24.61...........(14.30)................-2.86% 24.75..............0.00..................0.00% 25.00............25.00..................5.26% 30.00............25.00..................5.26% 35.00............25.00..................5.26% 40.00............25.00..................5.26%
UCO: Crude oil prices continue to decline: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UCO Basic Chart#{"range":"1y","scale":"linear"} http://www.thestreet.com/story/1293...-price-prediction.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...ll-for-fourth-week/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://www.thestreet.com/story/1292...alyst-reports-play-havoc-with-oil-sector.html http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...opec-gets-stubborn/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/pho...sualized-on-a-beautiful-map-of-182301721.html Trade: with UCO at 24.04 Apr 24/22 bear put spread for a net debit of $93. Price..........Profit / Loss.........ROI % 16.50...........107.00...............115.05% 19.10...........107.00...............115.05% 21.84...........107.00...............115.05% 22.00...........107.00...............115.05% 24.00...........(93.00).............-100.00% 24.58...........(93.00).............-100.00% 27.31...........(93.00).............-100.00% 30.05...........(93.00).............-100.00%
hey Dan, not sure if you'll respond to this, but I'm wondering if I'm blind or is this trade too good to be true. TZA @13.60 current price Nov 28 13.50 CALL 1.15 Nov 28 13.50 PUT 0.4 This looks like an arbitrage risk free profit...or is bigcharts glitched out? http://postimg.org/image/8uca61pt5/ image URL
TZA For TZA 11/28 with TZA at 13.60 13.5 NOV 28 straddle Cost = $164 at expiration: Price............Profit / Loss..........ROI % 10.13...........173.50...........105.79% 11.44............41.60..............25.37% 11.86..............0.00...............0.00% 12.83...........(97.30)...........-59.33% 13.50...........(164.00)........-100.00% 14.22...........(91.80)............-55.98% 15.14..............0.00................0.00% 15.61.............47.10..............28.72% 17.00............186.00............113.41%
BKW: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/burger-king-reports-3q-loss-125149475.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bkw Trade: with BKW at 32.2 Jan 35/38 bear call spread for a net credit of $75 Yield = 75/225 = 33.3% in 73 days or 167% annualized Prob = 73% Expectation = .73(75) - .12(225) - .15(113) = 54.75 - 27 - 17 = 11 Price........Profit / Loss.........ROM % 24.23.........75.00..................33.00% 28.69.........75.00..................33.00% 33.39.........75.00..................33.00% 35.00.........75.00..................33.00% 35.75..........0.00....................0.00% 38.00.......(225.00)..............-75.00% 38.10.......(225.00)..............-75.00% 42.80.......(225.00)..............-75.00% 47.50.......(225.00)..............-75.00%
DAL: http://investorplace.com/2014/11/delta-air-lines-bargain-fare-dal/#.VFrekrktCAw http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DAL http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DAL&ql=1#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} Trade: With DAL at 41.87 Sell Jan '16 35 put for $355 with intent to be put Yield on the put: Yield = 355/3145 = 11.29% in 435 days or 9.5% annualized Price...........Profit / Loss..........ROM % 26.25...........(520.00).............-14.86% 31.26...........(19.30)...............-0.55% 31.45..............0.00...................0.00% 35.00...........355.00................11.29% 36.53...........355.00................11.29% 41.80...........355.00................11.29% 47.07...........355.00................11.29% 52.34...........355.00................11.29%
CSC: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/computer-sciences-tops-2q-profit-215810857.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/computer-sciences-csc-q2-earnings-161002116.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CSC Key Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CSC.NYS?symbol=CSC&form=PRFISH http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSC Trade: with CSC at 59.00 March 65/70 bear call spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 233 days or 21.4% annualized Prob = 70% Price............Profit / Loss.............ROM % 44.25...............60.00...................13.60% 52.55...............60.00...................13.60% 61.29...............60.00...................13.60% 65.00...............60.00...................13.60% 65.60.................0.00....................0.00% 70.00..............(440.00)...............-88.00% 70.02..............(440.00)...............-88.00% 78.76..............(440.00)...............-88.00% 87.50..............(440.00)...............-88.00%
GE: http://news.investors.com/111014-72...s-focus.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=669080&SR=Yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ge-profit-tops-estimates-margins-111931862.html http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE Basic Chart#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} GE pays a 3.3% dividend Trade: With GE at 26.47 Jun 22/18 bull put spread for a net credit of $23 Yield = 23/377 = 6.1% in 220 days or 10.1% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(23) - .01(377) - .03(188) = 22.1 - 3.8 - 5.6 = 12.7 Price............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 12.00.............(377.00)...............-94.25% 15.00.............(377.00)...............-94.25% 18.00.............(377.00)...............-94.25% 21.22...............(55.40)...............-13.85% 21.77..................0.00...................0.00% 22.00................23.00...................6.10% 25.00................23.00...................6.10% 30.00................23.00...................6.10% 35.00................23.00...................6.10%
FCAU: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mo...er-get-ferrari-stake-2014-11-13?siteid=yhoof2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_Chrysler_Automobiles http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.FCAU.NYS?symbol=FCAU&form=PRFISB http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCAU http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FCAU Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} Trade: Sell Jun 7.50 put for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/720 = 4.2% in 216 days or 7% annualized Prob = ?? Price.........Profit / Loss..........ROM % 5.63.........(157.50)..................-21.00% 6.20.........(98.00)....................-14.00% 7.20............0.00........................0.00% 7.50..........30.00........................4.20% 7.50..........30.00........................4.20% 9.50..........30.00........................4.20% 11.50........30.00........................4.20%
CLX: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...mp-20-amid-ebola-flu-concerns.html?cmpid=yhoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cramer-stock-bond-135100163.html http://news.investors.com/111314-72...ividend.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=clx Trade: With CLX at 100.12 Jan 90/87.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $18 Yield = 18/232 = 7.75% in 63 days or 45% annualized Prob = 94% Expectation = .94(18) - .02(232) - .04(116) = 16.9 - 4.6 - 4.6 = 7.7 If I do 5 contracts: Price............Profit / Loss..........ROM % 65.63............(1160.00).............-92.80% 77.05............(1160.00).............-92.80% 87.50............(1160.00).............-92.80% 89.07..............(373.00).............-29.84% 89.82...................0.00...................0.00% 90.00..................90.00................7.75% 101.10................90.00................7.75% 113.12................90.00................7.75% 125.15................90.00................7.75%