Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. Good information guys. I've been trading options for awhile and always welcome new ideas. :)
     
    #791     Jul 12, 2014
  2. JCI:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/johnson-controls-chinese-jv-210007757.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/johnson-controls-shares-could-rise-003351172.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JCI&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=JCI

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=JCI+Profile

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=JCI+Key+Statistics

    Trade:
    with JCI at 50.73
    Jan '16 40/45 bull call spread for net debit of $320
    Yield = 180/320 = 56.2% in 550 days or 37.3% annualized
    Prob = 62%


    Price..................Profit / Loss...............ROI %
    30.00 .................(320.00) .............-100.00%
    35.00 .................(320.00) .............-100.00%
    40.00 .................(320.00) ............-100.00%
    43.16 .....................(3.70) ...............-1.16%
    43.20 ......................0.00 ..................0.00%
    45.00 ...................180.00 ................56.25%
    50.00 ...................180.00 ................56.25%
    55.00 ...................180.00 ................56.25%
    60.00 ...................180.00 ................56.25%
     
    #792     Jul 14, 2014
  3. JNJ:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/johnson-johnson-jnj-beat-earnings-194516193.html

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/1277...out-ma-or-breakup.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JNJ+Basic+Chart

    Trade:
    with JNJ at 105.38
    Jan '15 92.5/90 bull put spread for a net credit of $33
    Yield = 33/217 = 15.2% in 187 days or 29.7% annualized
    Prob = 91.6%
    Expectation = .916(33) - .02(217) - .06(108) = 30.2 - 4.3 - 6.5 = 19.4


    Price..............Profit / Loss............ROM %
    67.50............ (217.00).............. -86.80%
    79.83............ (217.00).............. -86.80%
    90.00............ (217.00).............. -86.80%
    92.17................. 0.00.................. 0.00%
    92.50............... 33.00................. 15.20%
    92.80............... 33.00................. 15.20%
    105.00............. 33.00................. 15.20%
    115.00............. 33.00................. 15.20%
    120.00............. 33.00................. 15.20%
     
    #793     Jul 14, 2014
  4. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pain-...;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3

    http://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2013/05/learned-saving-physicians-suicide.html

    What the hell have these two things to do with each other?

    A very long time ago I worked in Atlantic City at the medical center on Ohio ave just two blocks from the beach. I had taken the job as a sort of fling to give myself a vacation after some demanding and nerve rattling work in nearby Philadelphia.

    It turned out a summer in Atlantic City working the ER was anything but a vacation.

    I was sitting at my desk somewhere around mid-August. It was late in the day when the rush of trauma off the beach was turning down and the start of the trauma from the sweltering city slums had yet to begin.
    My telephone started a crazy ring which indicated the operator was leaning on the button, my beeper started to beep and at the same time I heard the operator on the speaker:

    "Mr. Shirley, Mr. Shirley code 99 Emergency Room"
    "Mr. Shirley, Mr. Shirley code 99 Emergency Room"
    "Mr. Shirley, Mr. Shirley code 99 Emergency Room"

    I heard the first one at my desk, the second one in the hall outside of my office and the third one as I burst through the double doors to the ER.
    A nurse pointed to the sterile OR we had recently set up at the back of the ER.
    As I went in there was a cluster of people around the patient table including an Indian medical resident that I had gotten used to working with. The medical residents were in Atlantic city on rotation from a Philadelphia Medical School. At the moment I arrived at the patient table the medical resident was rubbing the paddles of a defibrillator together as you do to even out the contact jelly. He placed the paddles on the chest of a mid thirties white male, one paddle on the sternum and one on the left side of the chest.

    THUNK.

    We all looked up at the EKG monitor. Flat Line.

    When I first told this story to my psychiatrist, also many years ago, I said there were four things that stuck in my memory from that day that would play back to me in times of stress as real as the day they happened: The first thing was the operator calling my name, the second thing was the THUNK of the defibrillator.

    My job at a code was to 'manage the airway': Oral airway, endotracheal tube, Abu bag, mechanical ventilator ... my job was to manage these, so other people could pay attention to EKG, fluid lines , medication and most importantly diagnosis.
    An anesthesiology nurse had the patient airway already, so, seeing the flat line I knelt on a stool next to the patient table and started chest compression.
    1,2,3,4,5 breath, 1,2,3,4,5 breath, 1,2,3,4,5 breath

    The medical resident was telling the nurse in a quiet yell to draw up new medications while pushing fluid from a large syringe into one of the IV lines.
    Then he grabbed the paddles again. Holding them out to the nurse she put new jelly on each one.
    Rub together.

    THUNK...flat line.

    1,2,3,4,5 breath, 1,2,3,4,5 breath, 1,2,3,4,5 breath
    We went on that way for what seems like three weeks in memory but was probably about an hour and a half. The anesthesiology nurse left leaving me the airway to manage. I put up a ventilator.
    Multiple medications had been tried. Chest compression.
    Defibrillation.
    Pacer.
    Nothing.
    Because I was known as 'never give up Dan' the resident finally looked at me and said "I think we have to stop". Everyone else had already come to that conclusion.
    I gave in. We stopped.
    As I walked out of the ER into the corridor the resident was comming out of the little chapel that was across from the ER. He looked dead himself.
    "If only I had tried medication first instead of the paddles he said" shaking his head.
    That is the third image.
    The fourth image happened then. Out of the chapel came a little girl about 9 years old running like death was chasing her.
    "MY DADDY DIED" she screamed. "MY DADDY DIED"
    Again and again she screams that at me. All my night-mares end with that scream.
    I am so sorry. I am so sorry.
    The next morning my boss came into my office and asked what had happened the afternoon before. I told him.

    He told me the medical resident had resigned. Not only that, he had disappeared. They couldn't find him. If that little girl's scream unhinged me I imagine what it did to the resident.
     
    #794     Jul 21, 2014
  5. AMZN

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-amazon-amzn-050031114.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMZN+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMZN&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    Aug 400/405 bear call spread for a net credit of $57
    Yield = 57/443 = 12.9% in 23 days
    Prob = 88%
    Expectation = .88(57) - .095(443) - .025(221) = 50.2 - 42.1 - 5.5 = 2.6


    Price.................Profit / Loss.................ROM %
    270.00................. 57.00.................... 12.90%
    300.00................. 57.00.................... 12.90%
    360.00................. 57.00.................... 12.90%
    400.00................. 57.00.................... 12.90%
    400.57................... 0.00..................... 0.00%
    405.00............... (443.00)................ -88.60%
    411.05............... (443.00)................ -88.60%
    458.65............... (443.00)................ -88.60%
    506.25............... (443.00)................ -88.60%
     
    #795     Jul 23, 2014
  6. Thanks for sharing the stories, oldnemesis. Very powerful.
     
    #796     Jul 23, 2014
  7. GSK:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...st-on-sluggish-u-s-drug-sales.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/glaxosmithkline-slumps-gsk-falls-5-105412372.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/glaxo-gsk-slips-disappointing-q2-142020691.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GSK+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GSK&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With GSK at 50.08
    Jan '15 55/60 bear call spread for a net credit of $25
    Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 176 days or 10.9% annualized
    Prob = 84%
    Expectation = .84(25) - .025(475) - .135(238) = 21 - 11.9 - 32.13 = -23
     
    #797     Jul 24, 2014
  8. ITB:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/d-r-hortons-earnings-miss-231626660.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=ITB&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:
    With ITB at 23.12
    Jan '15 26/28 bear call spread for a net credit of $26
    Yield = 26/174 = 14.9% in 173 days or 32% annualized
    Prob = 80%
    Expectation = .8(26) - .09(174) - .11(87) = 20.8 - 15.7 - 9.6 = -4.5

    Trade:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=dhi&ql=1
    With DHI at 21.61
    Jan '15 26/28 bear call spread for a net credit of $33
    Yield = 33/167 = 19.8% in 173 days or 41.7% annualized
    Prob = 84%
    Expectation = .84(33) - .09(167) - .07(84) = 27.7 - 15.0 - 5.9 = 6.8
     
    #798     Jul 27, 2014
  9. #799     Jul 28, 2014
  10. #800     Jul 29, 2014