IBRT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stocks-benefit-robots-replace-174839040.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IRBT+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=irbt http://finance.yahoo.com/news/irobot-first-quarter-financial-results-200100710.html http://www.irobot.com/us http://www.irobot.com/us/learn/defense.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IRBT&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With IRBT at 38.27 dec 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 182 days or 22.3% annualized Prob = 89% Expectation = .89(50) - .02(450) - .09(225) = 44.5 - 9 - 20.25 = 15.25
GM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/recalls-drag-general-motors-down-152012043.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GM+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=GM&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=GM&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With GM at 36.90 Jan 43/46 bear call spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/275 = 9.1% in 205 days or 16.2% annualized Prob = 83.5% Expectation = .835(25) - .084(275) - .081(138) = 20.9 - 23.1 - 11.2 = -14
GIS: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-mills-misses-earnings-revenues-132009149.html http://news.investors.com/062514-70...es-fall.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GIS+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=gis http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gis http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GIS&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With GIS at 51.76 Jan '16 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $65 Yield = 65/435 = 14.9% in 567 days or 9.6% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(65) - .04(435) - .09(217) = 56.6 - 17.4 - 19.5 = 19.7
DD: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dupont-cuts-profit-forecast-corn-204014461.html http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...he-soybeans-did-it/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dupont-cuts-earnings-view-weak-162512827.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DD+Key+Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=dd http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=DD&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade 1: with DD at 65.44 Jan '15 72.5/77.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 203 days or 15.6% annualized prob = 82% Expectation = .82(40) - .07(460) - .11(230) = 32.8 - 32.2 - 25.3 = -25 (requires downside follow-through on Monday) Trade 2 : Jan '15 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $31 Yield = 31/469 = 6.6% in 203 days or 11.9% Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(31) - .01(469) - .06(235) = 28.83 - 4.69 - 14.1 = 10.0
OC: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/weak-roof-business-dims-owens-144519232.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/owens-corning-strong-sell-dampened-214009756.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=OC+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=OC&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=OC&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: with OC at 38.68 Jan '15 46/50 bear call spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/360 = 11.1% in 199 days or 20.4% annualized Prob = 83% Expectation = .83(40) - .08(360) - .09(180) = 33.2 - 28.8 - 16.2 = -11.8
DSW: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-dsw-dsw-050057961.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DSW&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DSW+Key+Statistics Trade: With DSW at 27.94 Jan '15 35/40 bear call spread for a net credit of $41 Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 200 days or 16.3% annualized Prob = 88% Expectation = .88(41) - .036(459) - .084(229) = 36.1 - 16.5 - 19.2 = 0.4
BA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-gets-nasa-contract-largest-191009832.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-air-seeks-buy-more-174307746.html http://wallstcheatsheet.com/busines...-why-boeing-stock-is-set-to-soar.html/?ref=YF http://finance.yahoo.com/news/military-grounds-f-35-jets-025259374.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BA+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BA&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with BA at 128.51 Jan '15 100/95 bull put spread for a net credit of $29 Yield = 29/471 = 6.15% in 197 days or 11.4% annualized Prob = 95% Expectation = .95(29) - .02(471) - .03(236) = 27.55 - 9.42 - 7.08 = 11.05
SO: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=so http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SO&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= With SO at 44.01 Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 195 days or 20.8% annualized Prob = 81% Expectation = .81(50) - .02(450) - .17(225) = 40.5 - 9 - 38.25 = -6.75 Compare one option contract to buying equivalent $ in stock at $44.01 (10.11 shares) so that investment in both cases is $450 Spread..............................................................Stock.................................... Price................. Profit / Loss............... ROM % .................P/L................ROM% 26.25 .................(450.00)................. -90.00% .............(181.15)..........(40.0%) 31.77................. (450.00)................. -90.00%..............(124.84)..........(27.7%) 35.00 .................(450.00)................. -90.00% ...............(92.08)..........(20.5%) 37.58................... (191.90)................ -38.38%...............(65.71)...........(14.6%) 39.50........................ 0.00..................... 0.00%..............(46.09)............(10.1%) 40.00...................... 50.00................... 11.10%...............(40.09).............(8.9%) 43.39...................... 50.00.................... 11.10%...............(6.34)..............(1.4%) 49.20...................... 50.00.................... 11.10%...............53.04...............11.7% 55.01...................... 50.00.................... 11.10%..............112.42..............24.9%
LIT: http://www.investing.com/analysis/battery-powered-profits-—-courtesy-of-tesla-218611 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=LIT+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LIT&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with LIT at 13.81 Sell Jan '15 $112 put for a net credit of $140 Yield = 140/1060 = 13.2% in 194 days or 24.8% annualized Prob = 75% Price..............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 8.00.................(260.20)...........-24.50% 9.00................ (160.00).......... -13.33% 10.00.................. (1.40)............ -0.12% 10.60................... 0.00............... 0.00% 12.00................ 140.00............. 13.20% 13.00................ 140.00............. 13.20% 14.00................ 140.00..............13.20%
GDX: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/uptrend-gold-mining-etfs-continue-175741258.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...t-its-worth-only-800-2014-07-04?siteid=yhoof2 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GDX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GDX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GDX&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '16 20/15 bull put spread for a net credit of $71 Yield = 71/429 = 16.55% in 551 days or 11% annualized Prob = 80% Expectation = .80(71) - .04(429) - .16(215) = 56.8 - 17.16 - 34.4 = 5.2