Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. UNH:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...ses-boom-in-sector-2014-05-29?dist=tcountdown

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?UNH,AET,CI,HUM,WLP

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=UNH+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=UNH+Competitors

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNH&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    with UNH at 79.37
    Jan '15 65/62.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
    Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 231 days or 17.6% annualized
    Prob = 95.6%
    Expectation = .956(25) - .02(225) - .024(113) = 23.9 - 4.5 - 2.7 = 16.7


    Price.....................Profit / Loss.....................ROM %
    45.00...................... (225.00)....................... -90.00%
    55.00...................... (225.00)...................... -90.00%
    62.50...................... (225.00)...................... -90.00%
    64.75............................... 0.00............................ 0.00%
    65.00............................ 25.00......................... 11.10%
    70.00............................ 25.00......................... 11.10%
    75.00............................ 25.00......................... 11.10%
    80.00............................ 25.00......................... 11.10%
    85.00............................ 25.00......................... 11.10%
     
    #761     May 30, 2014
  2. #762     May 31, 2014
  3. #763     Jun 2, 2014
  4. #764     Jun 2, 2014
  5. #765     Jun 3, 2014
  6. PHH:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-phh-corp-phh-050027558.html

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12703055/1/phh-corp-stock-downgraded-phh.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...PR_300947?WT.mc_id=NLTITLE_YYYYMMDD_PR_300947

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/weakness-seen-phh-corporation-phh-105147775.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/phh-corporation-announces-first-quarter-200500783.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PHH+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PHH&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:

    With PHH at 23.73
    Nov 25/30 bear call spread for a net credit of $80
    Yield = 80/420 = 19% in 149 days or 46.7% annualized


    Price...............Profit / Loss..............ROM %
    17.00................ 80.00.................. 19.00%
    20.00................ 80.00.................. 19.00%
    25.00................ 80.00.................. 19.00%
    25.56................ 24.10.................... 4.82%
    25.80.................. 0.00.................... 0.00%
    29.54.............. (373.90)............... -74.78%
    30.00.............. (420.00)............... -84.00%
    35.00.............. (420.00)............... -84.00%
    37.50.............. (420.00)............... -84.00%
     
    #767     Jun 5, 2014
  7. FL:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/foot-locker-beats-q1-earnings-133004499.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FL+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=fl

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fl

    Trade:
    with FL at $49.94
    Jan 43/40 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
    Yield = 40/260 = 15.38% in 219 days or 26% annualized
    Prob = 81%
    Expectation = .81(40) - .10(260) - .09(130) = 32.4 - 26.0 - 11.7 = -5

    Price................Profit / Loss............ROM %
    30.00............... (265.00).............. -88.33%
    35.00............... (265.00).............. -88.33%
    40.00............... (265.00).............. -88.33%
    42.65.................... 0.00.................. 0.00%
    42.77................... 12.30................. 4.10%
    43.00................... 35.00................ 15.38%
    49.94................... 35.00................ 15.38%
    55.00................... 35.00................ 15.38%
    60.00................... 35.00................ 15.38%

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foyZteDSWCk
    zen
     
    #769     Jun 11, 2014
  8. Why only a $40 credit? optionsXpress is reporting NBBO of $0.35/$0.85. In my experience, they usually fill pretty close to the middle ($60). This obviously raises the expected profit.
     
    #770     Jun 11, 2014