Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. UNG:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/california-heat-provides-glimpse-natgas-121544528.html

    http://www.etftrends.com/2014/05/natural-gas-etfs-find-support-as-eia-raises-forecast/

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/em...ices-unlikely-to-retreat-this-year-2014-05-14

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-deploys-8-000th-cng-143000015.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNG&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With UNG at 24.28
    Oct 20/17 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
    Yield = 30/270 = 11.1% in 156 days or 26% annualized
    Prob = 83.5%
    Expectation = .84(30) - .03(270) - .13(135) = 25.2 - 8.1 - 17.5 = 0


    Price.....................Profit / Loss...............ROM %
    12.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00%
    16.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00%
    17.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00%
    19.68............................ (1.70).................... -0.57%
    19.70.............................. 0.00........................ 0.00%
    20.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11%
    23.24............................ 30.00..................... 11.11%
    26.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11%
    30.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11%

    BTW:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-add-nat-gas-202010913.html

    (has nothing to do with this trade)
     
    #751     May 14, 2014
  2. #752     May 16, 2014
  3. #753     May 19, 2014
  4. HD:

    http://news.investors.com/052014-70...timates.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-home-depot-elicits-ouch-225300665.html

    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...depot-may-sales-rise-but/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HD

    Trade:
    With HD at 77.96
    Aug 82.5/85 bear call spread for a net credit of $32
    Yield = 32/218 = 14.6% in 87 days or 61.6% annualized


    Price....................Profit / Loss................ROM %
    58.47...................... 32.00........................ 14.60%
    67.64...................... 32.00........................ 14.60%
    77.29...................... 32.00........................ 14.60%
    82.50...................... 32.00........................ 14.60%
    82.82......................... 0.00........................... 0.00%
    85.00.................. (218.00).................... -87.20%
    86.94.................. (218.00).................... -87.20%
    96.60.................. (218.00).................... -87.20%
    106.25............... (218.00).................... -87.20%
     
    #754     May 20, 2014
  5. #755     May 21, 2014
  6. FXforex

    FXforex

    Oldnemesis .......... What is the P/L of all these trades? You have almost 3 years of data and it would be nice to see the results.
     
    #756     May 21, 2014
  7. GST:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-estimates-moving-higher-gastar-111521127.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gastar-exploration-gst-focus-stock-110712716.html

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gst

    Trade:
    With GST at 7.39
    June 5/7.5 bull call spread for a net debit of $190


    Price......................Profit / Loss....................ROI %
    3.75......................... (190.00)................... -100.00%
    4.83......................... (190.00)................... -100.00%
    5.00......................... (190.00)................... -100.00%
    5.97......................... (93.40)......................... -49.16%
    6.90.............................. 0.00............................... 0.00%
    7.10........................... 20.20............................ 10.63%
    7.39.............................48.60............................25.57%
    7.50........................... 60.00............................ 31.58%
    8.24........................... 60.00............................ 31.58%
    9.38........................... 60.00............................ 31.58%

    short term hit and run from Larry McMillan and Zacks.
     
    #757     May 22, 2014
  8. BIIB:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BIIB+Profile

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BIIB+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=BIIB

    http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...hrough-drugs-yield-1-instant-blockbuster.aspx

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chmp-adopts-positive-opinion-plegridy-115900583.html

    http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...ise--on-robust-drug-pipeline-Barrons-contends

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BIIB&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With BIIB at 299.71
    Jan '15 200/295 bull put spread for a net credit of $36
    Yield = 36/464 = 7.8% in 235 days or 12.1% annualized
    Prob = 96%
    Expectation = .96(36) - .03(464) - .01(232) = 34.56 - 13.92 - 2.32 = 18.32


    Price........................Profit / Loss..................ROM %
    150.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80%
    190.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80%
    195.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80%
    199.64.............................. 0.00.......................... 0.00%
    200.00........................... 36.00.......................... 7.80%
    225.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
    250.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
    275.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
    299.71............................36.00..........................7.80%
    300.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
     
    #758     May 26, 2014
  9. Maya Angelou died today at age 86.

    The caged bird sings
    with fearful trill
    of the things unknown
    but longed for still
    and his tune is heard
    on the distant hill
    for the caged bird
    sings of freedom

    http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/i-know-why-the-caged-bird-sings/

    I am white and born in the North, Maya Angelou was black and born in the south.

    Yet I remember the Saturday afternoon I first read "I Know Why The Caged Bird Sings" and how it brought a light and a depth to me that I had never known before.

    http://vimeo.com/5453316

    With so many of our voices being silenced and so few replacements on the horizon I wonder how we will survive.
     
    #759     May 28, 2014
  10. OREX:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/224...pproved-soon-and-will-lead-market-here-is-why

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OREX&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    with OREX at 6.26
    June 7/6 strangle for a net debit of $135


    Price........................Profit / Loss.........................ROI %
    3.50...........................115.00..................................85.00%
    4.00..............................63.00..................................47.00%
    4.50.............................. 15.00............................... 11.11%
    4.65................................. 0.00.................................. 0.00%
    5.00............................. (36.50)........................... -49.33%
    6.00............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00%
    6.17............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00%
    7.00............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00%
    7.03............................. (131.70)........................ -97.56%
    7.89................................ (45.90)........................ -34.00%
    8.35..................................... 0.00............................... 0.00%
    8.75.................................. 40.00............................ 29.63%
    9.00..................................65.00..............................48,00%
     
    #760     May 29, 2014