UNG: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/california-heat-provides-glimpse-natgas-121544528.html http://www.etftrends.com/2014/05/natural-gas-etfs-find-support-as-eia-raises-forecast/ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/em...ices-unlikely-to-retreat-this-year-2014-05-14 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-deploys-8-000th-cng-143000015.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNG&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With UNG at 24.28 Oct 20/17 bull put spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/270 = 11.1% in 156 days or 26% annualized Prob = 83.5% Expectation = .84(30) - .03(270) - .13(135) = 25.2 - 8.1 - 17.5 = 0 Price.....................Profit / Loss...............ROM % 12.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00% 16.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00% 17.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00% 19.68............................ (1.70).................... -0.57% 19.70.............................. 0.00........................ 0.00% 20.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11% 23.24............................ 30.00..................... 11.11% 26.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11% 30.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11% BTW: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-add-nat-gas-202010913.html (has nothing to do with this trade)
KO: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/coca-cola-better-2014-155004209.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=KO&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With KO at 40.76 Jan '15 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $33 Yield = 33/467 = 7.07% in 245 days or 10.5% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(33) - .01(467) - .03(234) = 31.68 - 4.67 - 7.02 = 20 BE = 34.67
T: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-aims-tvs-future-48-040336487.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T Trade: With T at 36.03 Oct 32/27 bull put spread for a net credit of $32 Yield = 32/468 = 6.8% in 152 days or 16.4% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(32) - .01(468) - .08(234) = 29.12 - 4.68 - 18.72 = 5.72
HD: http://news.investors.com/052014-70...timates.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-home-depot-elicits-ouch-225300665.html http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...depot-may-sales-rise-but/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HD Trade: With HD at 77.96 Aug 82.5/85 bear call spread for a net credit of $32 Yield = 32/218 = 14.6% in 87 days or 61.6% annualized Price....................Profit / Loss................ROM % 58.47...................... 32.00........................ 14.60% 67.64...................... 32.00........................ 14.60% 77.29...................... 32.00........................ 14.60% 82.50...................... 32.00........................ 14.60% 82.82......................... 0.00........................... 0.00% 85.00.................. (218.00).................... -87.20% 86.94.................. (218.00).................... -87.20% 96.60.................. (218.00).................... -87.20% 106.25............... (218.00).................... -87.20%
HAPPY: http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/20...g-happy-in-tehran/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0 http://blogs.marketwatch.com/themar...ed-for-dance-video-that-hurt-public-chastity/ The original Pharrell Williams video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6Sxv-sUYtM&feature=kp I think we should have a flash mob in Tehran ... not only dance to 'Happy' but do it nude. What's a year in an Iranian prison
Oldnemesis .......... What is the P/L of all these trades? You have almost 3 years of data and it would be nice to see the results.
GST: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-estimates-moving-higher-gastar-111521127.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gastar-exploration-gst-focus-stock-110712716.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gst Trade: With GST at 7.39 June 5/7.5 bull call spread for a net debit of $190 Price......................Profit / Loss....................ROI % 3.75......................... (190.00)................... -100.00% 4.83......................... (190.00)................... -100.00% 5.00......................... (190.00)................... -100.00% 5.97......................... (93.40)......................... -49.16% 6.90.............................. 0.00............................... 0.00% 7.10........................... 20.20............................ 10.63% 7.39.............................48.60............................25.57% 7.50........................... 60.00............................ 31.58% 8.24........................... 60.00............................ 31.58% 9.38........................... 60.00............................ 31.58% short term hit and run from Larry McMillan and Zacks.
BIIB: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BIIB+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BIIB+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=BIIB http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...hrough-drugs-yield-1-instant-blockbuster.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chmp-adopts-positive-opinion-plegridy-115900583.html http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...ise--on-robust-drug-pipeline-Barrons-contends http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BIIB&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With BIIB at 299.71 Jan '15 200/295 bull put spread for a net credit of $36 Yield = 36/464 = 7.8% in 235 days or 12.1% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(36) - .03(464) - .01(232) = 34.56 - 13.92 - 2.32 = 18.32 Price........................Profit / Loss..................ROM % 150.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80% 190.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80% 195.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80% 199.64.............................. 0.00.......................... 0.00% 200.00........................... 36.00.......................... 7.80% 225.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80% 250.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80% 275.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80% 299.71............................36.00..........................7.80% 300.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
Maya Angelou died today at age 86. The caged bird sings with fearful trill of the things unknown but longed for still and his tune is heard on the distant hill for the caged bird sings of freedom http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/i-know-why-the-caged-bird-sings/ I am white and born in the North, Maya Angelou was black and born in the south. Yet I remember the Saturday afternoon I first read "I Know Why The Caged Bird Sings" and how it brought a light and a depth to me that I had never known before. http://vimeo.com/5453316 With so many of our voices being silenced and so few replacements on the horizon I wonder how we will survive.
OREX: http://seekingalpha.com/article/224...pproved-soon-and-will-lead-market-here-is-why http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OREX&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with OREX at 6.26 June 7/6 strangle for a net debit of $135 Price........................Profit / Loss.........................ROI % 3.50...........................115.00..................................85.00% 4.00..............................63.00..................................47.00% 4.50.............................. 15.00............................... 11.11% 4.65................................. 0.00.................................. 0.00% 5.00............................. (36.50)........................... -49.33% 6.00............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00% 6.17............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00% 7.00............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00% 7.03............................. (131.70)........................ -97.56% 7.89................................ (45.90)........................ -34.00% 8.35..................................... 0.00............................... 0.00% 8.75.................................. 40.00............................ 29.63% 9.00..................................65.00..............................48,00%