Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. GPS:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gap-continues-dismal-comps-run-205006107.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GPS+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=gps

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gps

    Trade:
    with GPS at 38.40
    Jan '15 45/47 bear call spread for a net credit of $25
    Yield = 25/175 = 14.3 % in 279 days or 18.7% annualized
    Prob = 77%


    Price....................................Profit / Loss................................ROI %
    30.00.......................................... 25.00................................... 14.30%
    35.00.......................................... 25.00.................................... 14.30%
    40.00.......................................... 25.00.................................... 14.30%
    45.00.......................................... 25.00.................................... 14.30%
    45.25............................................. 0.00....................................... 0.00%
    46.65....................................... (139.90)................................ -69.95%
    47.00....................................... (175.00)................................ -87.50%
    50.00....................................... (175.00)................................ -87.50%
    55.00....................................... (175.00)................................ -87.50%
     
    #721     Apr 13, 2014
  2. WFC:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-profit-rises-14-121159978.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-continues-show-earnings-195507212.html

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...-among-biggest-banks-2014-04-11?siteid=yhoof2

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WFC+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=WFC

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wells_Fargo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WFC&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wfc

    Trade:
    With WFC at 48.08
    Jan '15 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
    Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 279 days or 6.9% annualized
    Prob = 97%


    Price.................................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
    22.50.................................... (475.00)........................ -95.00%
    25.00.................................... (475.00)........................ -95.00%
    30.00.................................... (475.00)........................ -95.00%
    34.75............................................ 0.00.............................. 0.00%
    35.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%
    40.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%
    45.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%
    55.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%
    60.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%

    [​IMG]


    It's Palm Sunday today:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2DdFkZui1U
     
    #722     Apr 13, 2014
  3. AMRS:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/makes-amyris-amrs-strong-sell-110906814.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMRS+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=amrs

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMRS+Interactive#symbol=AMRS;range=

    Trade:
    with AMRS at 3.49
    Sept 5/2.5 bear put spread for a net debit of $160


    Price.......................................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
    2.00............................................ 90.00................................ 56.25%
    2.50............................................ 90.00................................ 56.25%
    2.71............................................ 68.50................................ 42.81%
    3.40............................................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
    3.60........................................... (19.80)............................ -12.38%
    4.48........................................... (108.20)......................... -67.63%
    5.00........................................... (160.00)...................... -100.00%
    5.50........................................... (160.00)...................... -100.00%
    6.00........................................... (160.00)...................... -100.00%
     
    #723     Apr 14, 2014
  4. DGX:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/quest-diagnostics-raised-buy-203403289.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DGX+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=dgx

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=DGX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=DGX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    DGX pays a 2.2% dividend

    Trade #1:
    With DGX at 60.14
    Sell Jan '15 45 put for a net credit of $95
    Yield = 95/4405 = 2.16% in 278 days or 2.8% annualized
    Prob = 88%

    Price..............................Profit / Loss.....................ROI%
    33.75............................... (1030.00)................ -22.89%
    41.70............................... (235.00)...................... -5.22%
    44.05....................................... 0.00.......................... 0.00%
    45.00.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%
    50.07.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%
    58.44.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%
    66.81.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%
    75.18.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%


    Trade #2
    Jan '15 45/40 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
    Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 278 days or 6.9% annualized
    Prob = 88%


    Price...........................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
    30.00............................ (475.00)........................ -95.00%
    35.00............................ (475.00)........................ -95.00%
    40.00............................ (475.00)......................... -95.00%
    44.75.................................... 0.00................................ 0.00%
    45.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
    50.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
    55.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
    65.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
    75.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
     
    #724     Apr 14, 2014
  5. ICUI:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-icu-medical-icui-050033026.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ICUI+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=icui

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=ICUI&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1


    Trade:
    With ICUI at 56.95
    Aug 60/55 bear put spread for a net debit of $212


    Price...............................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
    40.00.................................... 288.00........................ 135.85%
    45.00.................................... 288.00........................ 135.85%
    50.00..................................... 288.00....................... 135.85%
    55.00..................................... 288.00....................... 135.85%
    57.88........................................... 0.00............................. 0.00%
    60.00..................................... (212.00).................. -100.00%
    65.00..................................... (212.00)................... -100.00%
    70.00..................................... (212.00)................... -100.00%
    75.00..................................... (212.00)................... -100.00%
     
    #725     Apr 16, 2014
  6. IBM:

    http://news.investors.com/041714-69...arnings.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-q1-earnings-line-revs-122012568.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-posts-lower-1q-earnings-211007222.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IBM+Key+Statistics

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM

    Trade:
    With IBM at 189.87

    Oct 220/225 bear call spread for a net credit of $30
    Yield = 30/470 = 6.38% in 184 days or 12.7% annualized
    Prob = 85%


    Price......................Profit / Loss...........................ROM %
    150.00...................... 30.00..................................... 6.38%
    180.00...................... 30.00..................................... 6.38%
    195.00...................... 30.00...................................... 6.38%
    220.00...................... 30.00...................................... 6.38%
    220.30......................... 0.00...................................... 0.00%
    225.00.................. (470.00)............................... -94.00%
    245.00.................. (470.00)............................... -94.00%
    250.00.................. (470.00)............................... -94.00%
    275.00.................. (470.00)............................... -94.00%
     
    #726     Apr 17, 2014
  7. BX:

    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...fits-analysts-optimistic/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BX+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=bx

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BX&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:

    With BX at 31.34

    Jan '15 22/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $25

    Yield = 25/175 = 14.28% in 269 days or 19.4% annualized

    Prob = 92%

    Expectation = .92(25) - .01(175) - .07(87.5) = 23 - 1.75 - 6.12 = 15.1


    Price...................Profit / Loss..............ROM %
    15.00................... (175.00)............. -87.50%
    18.00................... (175.00)............. -87.50%
    20.00................... (175.00)............. -87.50%
    21.75........................ 0.00................. 0.00%
    22.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
    25.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
    30.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
    35.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
    40.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
     
    #727     Apr 21, 2014
  8. HD:

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/1267...er-this-afternoon.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HD+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=HD

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HD&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:

    With HD at 77.09
    Nov 65/60 bull put spread for net credit of $48
    Yield = 48/452 = 10.6% in 208 days or 18.6% annualized
    Prob = 90%
    Expectation = .9(48) - .02(452) - .08(226) = 43.2 - 9.0 - 18.1 = 16.1


    Price.................Profit / Loss.............ROM %
    45.00............... (452.00)............. -90.40%
    54.86............... (452.00)............. -90.40%
    60.00............... (452.00)............. -90.40%
    64.52.................... 0.00................ 0.00%
    65.00.................. 48.00............... 10.60%
    70.00.................. 48.00................10.60%
    75.00.................. 48.00............... 10.60%
    80.00.................. 48.00............... 10.60%
    90.00.................. 48.00................10.60%
     
    #728     Apr 21, 2014
  9. TLM:


    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-talisman-energy-tlm-050027064.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TLM+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=tlm

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLM&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:

    With TLM at 10.80

    Jan '15 13/16 bear call spread for net credit of $30
    Yield = 30/270 = 11.1% in 267 days or 15.5% annualized
    Prob = 80%
    Expectation =.8(30) - .06(265) - .14(132) = 24 - 16 - 18 = -10


    Price..............Profit / Loss................ROM %
    8.00................ 30.00.................... 11.11%
    10.00.............. 30.00.....................11.11%
    12.50.............. 30.00.....................11.11%
    13.00.............. 30.00.................... 11.11%
    13.30................ 0.00..................... 0.00%
    15.19............ (189.20)................. -63.07%
    16.00............ (270.00)................. -90.00%
    17.50............ (270.00)................. -90.00%
    20.00............ (270.00)................. -90.00%
     
    #729     Apr 23, 2014
  10. #730     Apr 24, 2014