Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. ISRG:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intuitive-surgical-climbs-da-vinci-194625742.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fda-clears-intuitive-surgicals-da-181025593.html

    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/04/02/32404/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJ_3GJNz4fg

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100650872

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=isrg

    Trade:
    With ISRG at 518.50
    Jan '15 440/450 bull call spread for a net debit of $760
    Yield = 240/760 = 31.6% in 289 days or 40% annualized
    Prob and Expectation calcs are meaningless


    Price..............................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
    350.00........................... (760.00)................... -100.00%
    400.00........................... (760.00).................... -100.00%
    440.00........................... (760.00)..................... -100.00%
    447.60................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
    450.00.............................. 240.00.......................... 31.58%
    500.00.............................. 240.00.......................... 31.58%
    518.50.............................. 240.00.......................... 31.58%
    575.00............................. 240.00........................... 31.58%
    600.00............................. 240.00........................... 31.58%
     
    #711     Apr 2, 2014
  2. ZEUS:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-olympic-steel-zeus-050033352.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ZEUS+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ZEUS

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ZEUS&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With Zeus at 29.37
    Jul 30/25 bear put spread for a net debit of $205
    Yield = 295/205 = 144%

    Price.............................Profit / Loss.........................ROI %
    18.75.............................. 295.00............................ 143.90%
    22.35.............................. 295.00............................ 143.90%
    25.00.............................. 295.00............................ 143.90%
    26.14.............................. 181.40................................ 88.49%
    27.95.................................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
    29.92............................. (197.40)............................ -96.29%
    30.00............................. (205.00..........................) -100.00%
    33.71............................. (205.00).......................... -100.00%
    37.50............................. (205.00).......................... -100.00%
     
    #712     Apr 4, 2014
  3. K:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=K

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/04/04/kellogg-stock-trade-takeover/7328005/

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-company-k-focus-stock-111111975.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...the-most-in-almost-five-years.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=K+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=K&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=


    With K at 63.77
    Trade: #1
    Jan '15 57.5/55 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
    Yield = 35/215 = 16.3% in 285 days or 21% annualized

    Trade #2
    Sept '14 62.5 straddle for a net debit of $595

    Price.....................................Spread.................Straddle
    45.00................................... (215.00)..............1000.00
    50.00................................... (215.00)..................635.00
    55.00................................... (215.00)..................138.00
    56.40...................................... (74.80).....................15.00
    56.55........................................(35.00).........................0.00
    57.15........................................... 0.00.......................(60.00)
    57.50......................................... 35.00......................(94.00)
    63.77..........................................35.00....................(465.00)
    65.00......................................... 35.00....................(333.00)
    70.00......................................... 35.00...................$164.00
    80.00......................................... 35.00.................$1100.00
     
    #713     Apr 6, 2014
  4. Portfolio allocation:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

    On Friday The S&P dropped by about 2.5% while BND and TLT advanced by about .5%

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=BND&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=TLT&ql=1&c=^GSPC

    According to a common bond/equity allocation scheme

    http://money.cnn.com/retirement/guide/investing_basics.moneymag/index7.htm


    You should keep (100 - age)% of your investment portfolio in bonds or bond like securities.


    In order to come out even on the day I would need to have

    2.5/.5 = 5 times as much in bonds as in equities.... i.e. 17% in equities and 83% in bonds.

    i.e. 83 year olds would have been even on the day.


    :)
     
    #714     Apr 6, 2014
  5. PFE:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=pfe

    http://news.investors.com/040714-69...ntation.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

    http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...6/PFE-Pfizer-selloff-unwarranted-Barrons-says

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PFE+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=PFE

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PFE&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Phase II trials are not meant to be statistically significant trials but are used as a chance for the company to dip its toe into the clinical trial arena for this drug. This allows them to build machinery and test procedures which then enable them to conduct the more definitive phase III trial.

    The Phase III trial is where the emphasis is on a larger population and statistically significant results.

    BTW drugs HAVE been approved where statistical significance has not been obtained and where the disease is dread and the treatment hopeful.

    Pfizer as a company is much much more than palbociclib.

    Trade:
    with PFE at 31.20
    Dec 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $32
    Yield = 32/468 = 6.8% in 256 days or 9.8% annualized
    Prob = 85%
    Expectation = .85(32) - .02(468) - .13(234) = 27.2 - 9.36 - 30.42 = -13
    BE @ 24.68
     
    #715     Apr 7, 2014
  6. #716     Apr 7, 2014
  7. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=isrg

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intuitive-surgical-slumps-weak-1q-155804025.html

    Trade:
    With ISRG at 456.64
    Jan 500/510 bear call spread for a net credit of $200

    Price...........................Profit / Loss..............ROI %
    350.00........................... 200.00................. 20.00%
    400.00........................... 200.00................. 20.00%
    450.00........................... 200.00................. 20.00%
    500.00........................... 200.00.................. 20.00%
    502.00................................ 0.00..................... 0.00%
    510.00......................... (800.00)................ -80.00%
    520.00......................... (800.00)................ -80.00%
    530.00......................... (800.00)................. -80.00%
    550.00......................... (800.00)................. -80.00%

    Would the additional trade mitigate or guarantee a loss??
     
    #717     Apr 10, 2014
  8. Using options to raise yields on income instruments:

    TLT:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=TLT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1
    TLT currently yields 3.06% annually in dividends.
    With TLT at 109.89

    Sept 100/95 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
    Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 163 days or 16.8% annualized.
    Prob = 93%
    Expectation = .93(35) - .02(465) - .05(232) = 32.55 - 9.3 - 11.6 = 11.6
     
    #718     Apr 10, 2014
  9. FHS

    FHS

    so are you saying 2% of the time you can have a max loss, and 5% of the time you successfully exit early?
     
    #719     Apr 10, 2014
  10. JNJ:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...-pick-in-a-dangerous-market/?partner=yahootix

    JNJ yields 2.7% annually in dividends.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=JNJ+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=jnj

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=JNJ&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=jnj

    Trade:

    Oct 80/75 bull put spread for a net credit of $28
    Yield = 28/472 = 5.93% in 189 days or 11.5% annualized
    Prob = 95%
    Expectation = .95(28) - .01(472) - .04(236) = 26.6 - 4.72 - 9.44 = 12.44
     
    #720     Apr 11, 2014