SYK: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stryker-raised-strong-buy-180008352.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stryker-flexes-medtech-muscles-153300878.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SYK+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=SYK http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=SYK&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With SYK at 80.86 Jan 60/55 bull put spread for a net credit of $32 Yield = 32/468 = 6.8% in 299 days or 8.3% annualized Prob = 97% Expectation = .97(32) - .01(468) - .02(234) = 31.04 - 4.68 - 4.68 = 21.68 Price......................................Profit / Loss...............................ROI % 45.00........................................ (468.00).............................. -93.60% 50.00........................................ (468.00)............................... -93.60% 55.00........................................ (468.00)............................... -93.60% 59.68................................................ 0.00..................................... 0.00% 60.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80% 65.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80% 70.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80% 75.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80% 80.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80% 80.86.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80% 100.00 .......................................... 32.00.................................... 6.80%
MTN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-...;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MTN+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MTN&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With MTN at 72.39 Jul 72.50/70 bear put spread for a net debit of 1.00 Price..................................Profit / Loss........................ROI % 55.00...................................... 150.00........................ 150.00% 60.00...................................... 150.00........................ 150.00% 65.00...................................... 150.00........................ 150.00% 70.00...................................... 150.00........................ 150.00% 71.50............................................ 0.00.............................. 0.00% 72.50.................................... (100.00)..................... -100.00% 75.00.................................... (100.00)..................... -100.00% 80.00.................................... (100.00)..................... -100.00% 90.00.................................... (100.00)..................... -100.00%
AGCO: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/127411/agco-slips-to-strong-sell http://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-beat-agco-shares-fall-142003944.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/farm-machinery-maker-agcos-profit-151524758.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AGCO+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=AGCO http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=agco http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AGCO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With AGCO at 52.99 Aug 60/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 144 days or 28% annualized Prob = 84% Expectation = .84(50) - .06(450) - .1(225) = 42 - 27 - 22 = -7 Price............................Profit / Loss.....................ROI % 45.00................................. 50.00......................... 11.10% 50.00................................. 50.00......................... 11.10% 55.00................................. 50.00......................... 11.10% 60.00................................. 50.00......................... 11.10% 60.50..................................... 0.00........................... 0.00% 64.48.............................. (397.90).................... -79.58% 65.00.............................. (450.00).................... -90.00% 70.00.............................. (450.00).................... -90.00% 75.00.............................. (450.00).................... -90.00%
NPO: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/enpro-downgraded-strong-sell-214504979.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NPO+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=NPO+Competitors http://www.thestreet.com/story/1223...ouble-digit-gains.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/enpro-misses-q3-earnings-revs-134005858.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielf...k-bankruptcy-to-125-million/?partner=yahootix http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielf...-but-it-sure-smells-like-it/?partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/news/enpro-industries-reports-results-fourth-123000811.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NPO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NPO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With NPO at 72.85 Sept 90/95 bear call spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 177 days or 20.4% annualized Prob = 85% Expectation = .85(45) - .1(455) - .05(278) = 38.25 - 45.50 - 13.9 = -21.15 Price......................Profit / Loss..................ROI % 60.00........................ 45.00........................... 9.90% 65.00........................ 45.00........................... 9.90% 72.85.........................45.00............................9.90% 80.00........................ 45.00........................... 9.90% 90.00........................ 45.00........................... 9.90% 90.45............................ 0.00........................... 0.00% 92.85..................... (239.60).................... -47.92% 95.00..................... (455.00).................... -91.00% 105.00.................. (455.00).................... -91.00% 120.00.................. (455.00).................... -91.00% Alternate trade: June 80/85 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.11% in 86 days or 47% annualized Prob = 74% Expectation = .76(50) - .15(450) - .09(225) = 38 - 67.5 - 20.25 = -50
CBS: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cbs Trade: With CBS at 61.96 April 65/60 bear put spread for a net debit of $290 Yield = 210/290 = 72% if CBS < 62.10 at expiration Price...........................Profit / Loss.........................ROI % 45.00............................ 210.00 ...............................72.41% 50.00............................ 210.00............................... 72.41% 55.00............................ 210.00............................... 72.41% 60.00............................ 210.00............................... 72.41% 62.10................................... 0.00................................. 0.00% 65.00 ............................(290.00)....................... -100.00% 70.00............................ (290.00)....................... -100.00% 75.00............................ (290.00)....................... -100.00% 80.00............................ (290.00)....................... -100.00%
Crimea: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-ukraine-crisis-centralasia-idUSBREA2Q0BP20140327 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan https://www.google.com/maps/place/K...0x38a91007ecfca947:0x5f7b842fe4b30e1b!6m1!1e1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RSX&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
Trade: RSX: (see above) With RSX at 22.97 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSX http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy Aug 25/20 bear put spread for a net debit of $240 Yield = 240/260 = 92% in 141 days or 238% annualized Price.........................Profit / Loss.......................ROI % 15.00............................ 260.00........................ 108.33% 20.00............................ 260.00......................... 108.33% 21.40............................. 119.80.......................... 49.92% 22.60................................... 0.00............................. 0.00% 24.68............................. (208.40)..................... -86.83% 25.00............................. (240.00)..................... -100.00% 27.97............................. (240.00)..................... -100.00% 31.25............................. (240.00)..................... -100.00%
A woman and a duck walk into a bar. The bartender says, "Where'd you get the pig." The woman says, "That's not a pig, that's a duck." He says, "I was talking to the duck."
TLT: With TLT at 109.37 http://seekingalpha.com/article/2115603-the-top-7-reasons-to-buy-treasuries-part-2 Trade: Jan '15 90/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $23 Yield = 23/477 = 4.8% in 294 days or 6.0% annualized Prob = 98% Expectation = .98(23) - .01(477) - .01(238) = 22.5 - 4.8 - 2.4 = 15.3 Price.........................Profit / Loss......................ROI % 75.00......................... (477.00)........................ -95.40% 80.00......................... (477.00)........................ -95.40% 85.00......................... (477.00)........................ -95.40% 89.77................................. 0.00.............................. 0.00% 90.00.............................. 23.00.............................. 4.80% 95.00.............................. 23.00.............................. 4.80% 100.00........................... 23.00.............................. 4.80% 105.00........................... 23.00.............................. 4.80% 110.00........................... 23.00.............................. 4.60%
GM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-adding-971-000-vehicles-224322710.html http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/major-events-gms-recall-16-million-cars-23097385?page=2 http://www.thewire.com/business/2014/03/gm-recall-mary-barra-hearing/359670/ With GM at 34.73 Trade #1: Sept 35/40 bear call spread for a net credit of $151 Yield = 151/349 = 43% in 174 days or 91% annualized Prob = 55% Expectation = .55(151) - .22(349) - .23(174) = 83.1 - 76.8 - 40.0 = -33.7 Trade # 2 Sept 35/40 bear put spread for a net debit of $360 Yield = 140/360 = 39% in 174 days or 82% annualized Prob = 55% Expectation = .55(140) - .22(360) - .23(180) = 77 - 79.2 - 41.4 = -43.6 Price...........................Trade #1....................Trade #2 25.00........................... 151.00.........................140.00 30.00........................... 151.00.........................140.00 35.00........................... 151.00.........................140.00 35.48........................... 102.70.............................91.70 36.40................................20.00................................0.00 36.51................................. 0.00.............................(20.00) 40.00.......................... (349.00)........................(360.00) 45.00.......................... (349.00)........................(360.00) 50.00.......................... (349.00)........................(360.00) 55.00.......................... (349.00)........................(360.00) The two spreads are very alike in final outcome.