I noticed your post on the Crimea. I like to do some conservative trading. Can I use this news to buy some long term investing options., like LEAPS as some good companies are beaten down last week. I also write in the website: http://www.options-trading-training.com and give my ideas to beginners in options trading. Please check when you have time. I am planning to post option trades for testing purposes for the beginners.
Crimea: http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-...ns-to-nazi-annexation-of-austria/1864112.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss
IP: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-international-paper-ip-050027968.html http://www.cnbc.com/id/101417438?__...hoo&doc=101417438%7cStorms+cost+International http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IP+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ip http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IP&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= With IP at 43.93 Trade #1 Oct 52.50/57.50 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 213 days or 19% annualized Prob = 81% Expectation = .81(50) - .075(450) - .115(225) = 40.5 - 33.75 - 25.90 = -19 Trade #2 Oct 38/33 bull put spread for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/445 = 12.% in 213 days or 21% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(55) - .025(445) - .105(223) = 47.85 - 11.12 - 23.4 = 13.33 Statistics gives a slight edge to the bull put spread... but history may give the edge to the bearish trade.
GIS: http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/vid....html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1 http://www.thestreet.com/story/12532774/1/general-mills-can-still-satisfy-earnings-preview.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-mills-gis-miss-earnings-124004855.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GIS&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with GIS at 50.50 Jan 40/37 bull put spread for a net credit of $33 Yield = 33/267 = 12.4% in 304 days or 14.8% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(33) - .04(267) - .05(134) = 30.03 - 10.68 - 6.7 = 12.6 Price........................Profit / Loss...........................ROI % 25.00............................ (267.00)....................... -89.00% 35.00............................ (267.00)....................... -89.00% 37.00............................ (267.00)....................... -89.00% 39.67..................................... 0.00............................ 0.00% 40.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00% 45.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00% 50.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00% 55.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00% 60.00.................................. 33.00.......................... 11.00%
Crimea: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...kremlin-transcript-2014-03-18?dist=lcountdown http://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...-pressure-on-russia-2014-03-17?dist=afterbell http://blogs.marketwatch.com/themar...rs-of-european-border-shiftings/?link=instory
ODP: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/office-depot-now-strong-sell-195352147.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/office-depot-misses-q4-earnings-174005284.html http://blogs.marketwatch.com/behind...bt-to-the-future-of-office-supplies-industry/ http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ODP http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ODP&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With ODP at 4.61 Oct 5.5/8.0 bear call spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/225 = 11.11% in 213 days or 19% annualized Price.........................Profit / Loss......................ROi % 4.00.............................. 25.00 ............................11.11% 4.61.............................. 25.00 ............................11.11% 4.71.............................. 25.00............................ 11.11% 5.50.............................. 25.00............................ 11.11% 5.75................................. 0.00................................0.00% 6.03............................. (28.50)........................ -11.40% 7.36............................. (160.70)..................... -64.28% 8.00............................. (225.00)..................... -90.00% 9.00............................. (225.00)..................... -90.00% 10.00.......................... (225.00)..................... -90.00%
Update: Sept 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $73 Yield = 73/427 = 17.1% in 183 days or 34.1% annualized Prob = 79% Expectation = .79(73) - .13(427) - .08(213) = 57.67 - 55.51 - 17.04 = -15 Nothing much has changed in the past 5 days... still looks like we will be flat to down from here. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy
SPY: continued http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy Sept 165/160 bull put spread for a net credit of $58 Yield = 58/442 = 13.1% in 183 days or 26.2% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(58) - .03(442) - .04(221) = 53.94 - 13.26 - 8.84 = 31.84 Price....................Profit / Loss.........................ROM % 120.00.................... (442.00)....................... -88.40% 140.00.................... (442.00)....................... -88.40% 160.00.................... (442.00)....................... -88.40% 164.42............................ 0.00.............................. 0.00% 164.64......................... 22.30.............................. 4.46% 165.00.......................... 58.00........................... 13.10% 180.00.......................... 58.00........................... 13.10% 210.00.......................... 58.00........................... 13.10% 225.00.......................... 58.00........................... 13.10%
RAVN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/raven-down-strong-sell-190008676.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=RAVN+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RAVN+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=RAVN http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=RAVN&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=RAVN&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With RAVN at 32.90 Aug 45/50 bear call spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 148 days or 18.6% annualized Prob = 95% Expectation = .95(35) - .02(465) - .03(232) = 33.25 - 9.3 - 7.0 = 17 Price.............................Profit / Loss.................ROI % 25.00.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50% 30.00.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50% 32.90.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50% 40.00.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50% 45.00.............................. 35.00........................... 7.50% 45.35................................. 0.00........................... 0.00% 47.22......................... (186.60)..................... -37.32% 50.00......................... (465.00)..................... -93.00% 55.00......................... (465.00)..................... -93.00% 60.00......................... (465.00)..................... -93.00%
KRFT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/krafts-4q-profit-rises-sales-220033872.html (have you ever had that macaroni and cheese dinner?? better you should eat the box) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/krafts-top-line-pressures-continue-174004496.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=KRFT+Key+Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=krft http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=KRFT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With KRFT at 55.37 Jan 15 60/62.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/210 = 19% in 300 days or 23% annualized Prob: KRFT has been trading for less than 2 years since the spin-off and probability and expectation are thus not available. Price.....................................Profit / Loss....................ROM % 45.55.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00% 50.00.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00% 55.00.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00% 55.37.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00% 60.00.......................................... 40.00......................... 19.00% 60.40............................................. 0.00............................ 0.00% 62.50 ......................................(210.00)..................... -84.00% 65.00...................................... (210.00)..................... -84.00% 70.00...................................... (210.00)..................... -84.00% 75.00...................................... (210.00)..................... -84.00%