MET: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-metlife-may-pays-barrons-170324559.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MET+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=met http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MET&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With MET at 53.31 Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $48 Yield = 48/452 = 10.6% in 311 days or 12.5% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(48) - .02(452) - .06(226) = 44.2 - 9.04 - 13.56 = 21.6 Price...............................Profit / Loss............................ROI % 25.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40% 30.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40% 35.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40% 39.52....................................... 0.00.................................. 0.00% 40.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60% 45.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60% 50.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60% 60.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60% 65.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
PLUG: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy...as-analyst-says-fair-share-value-is-50-cents/ http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-shares-soar-wal-194511634.html http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2014/03/11/plug-power-walmart-fuel-cells/?source=yahoo_quote http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PLUG+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=plug http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PLUG&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=plug Trade: with PLUG at 6.03 June 10/13 bear call spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/260 = 15.4% in 101 days or 56% annualized Prob = 85% Expectation = .85(40) - .10(260) - .05(130) = 34 - 26 - 6.5 = 1.5 Price............................Profit / Loss...................ROI % 4.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40% 6.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40% 9.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40% 10.00.............................. 40.00.......................... 15.40% 10.40................................. 0.00............................. 0.00% 11.51.......................... (111.20)...................... -37.07% 13.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67% 14.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67% 16.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67%
BLDP: See PLUG above http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy...as-analyst-says-fair-share-value-is-50-cents/ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bldp http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BLDP+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BLDP&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BLDP&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=PLUG&ql=1 Trade: with BLDP at 5.1 Aug 3/1 bull put spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/155 = 29% in 157 days or 67% annualized Price..........................Profit / Loss.....................ROI % 0.75............................... (155.00)................... -77.50% 1.00............................... (155.00)................... -77.50% 1.83............................... (72.00)...................... -36.00% 2.55.................................... 0.00............................ 0.00% 2.97.................................. 41.60......................... 20.80% 3.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00% 4.10.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00% 5.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00% 6.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%
PFE: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/study-pfizer-vaccine-cuts-pneumonia-215937954.html very expensive study with a very positive outcome. Still need to look at toxicity. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PFE&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With PFE at 31.98 Jan'15 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $34 Yield = 34/466 = 7.3% in 310 days or 8.6% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(34) - .01(466) - .07(233) = 30.94 - 4.66 - 16.31 = 9.97 Price......................................Profit / Loss...................ROI % 15.00......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20% 19.79......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20% 20.00......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20% 24.66................................................. 0.00....................... 0.00% 24.84.............................................. 17.90....................... 3.58% 25.00............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30% 29.88............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30% 34.93............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30% 39.98............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
HIMX: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=HIMX+Profile http://www.thestreet.com/story/12527256/1/why-himax-himx-is-up-today.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/time-focus-himax-technologies-himx-115226486.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HIMX+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HIMX&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With HIMX at 15.65 April 12/14 bull call spread for a net debit of $154 Price.............................Profit / Loss.......................ROI % 10.00............................. (154.00)....................... -100.00% 11.00............................. (154.00)........................ -100.00% 12.00............................. (154.00)........................ -100.00% 13.16................................ (37.90)............................ -24.61% 13.54..................................... 0.00.................................. 0.00% 14.00................................... 46.00............................... 29.87% 15.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87% 15.65....................................46.00.................................29.87% 17.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87% 19.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87% Alternate trade: Sept 10/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 190 days or 19.0% annualized Prob = 77% Expectation = .76(45) - .01(455) - .23(228) = 34.20 - 4.55 - 52.21 = -22.6 Price.............................Profit / Loss...................ROI % 3.75................................. (455.00)................... -91.00% 5.00................................. (455.00)................... -91.00% 6.78................................. (276.50)................... -55.30% 9.55......................................... 0.00......................... 0.00% 9.98....................................... 42.90........................ 8.58% 10.00.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90% 13.17.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90% 16.37.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90% 19.56.................................... 45.00....................... 9.90%
TEVA: http://news.investors.com/030614-69...upgrade.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-fda-nod-generic-evista-200752901.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...buyouts-lift-earnings-outlook.html?cmpid=yhoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TEVA+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=TEVA http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TEVA&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With TEVA at 48.76 Sept 37/34 bull put spread for a net credit of $23 Yield = 23/277 = 8.3% in 190 days or 16% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(23) - .04(277) - .05(138) = 20.9 - 11.8 - 6.9 = 2.2 Price....................Profit / Loss........................ROI % 25.00.................... (277.00)......................... -92.33% 32.00.................... (277.00)......................... -92.33% 34.00.................... (277.00).......................... -92.33% 36.77............................ 0.00................................ 0.00% 37.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30% 39.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30% 45.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30% 48.76..........................23.00.............................. 8.30% 50.00........................ 23.00............................... 8.30%
Ukraine and Crimea : Update http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/14/world/europe/ukraine.html?_r=0 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy That long red downer may finally mark the end of the bull market I have one thing to say: Borschst
SPY http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy http://www.thestar.com/business/per...p_as_more_investors_buy_stocks_on_margin.html http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...hmC6cWvMoULn2WZi7-GsosQ&bvm=bv.62922401,d.dmQ http://www.minyanville.com/business...ooper-Did-Yesterday-Mark-a/3/12/2014/id/54129 Trade: Sept 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $63 Yield = 63/437 = 14.4% in 188 days or 28% annualized Prob = 80% Expectation = .80(63) - .14(437) - .06(218) = 50.4 - 61.18 - 13.08 = -23.84 Price.................................Profit / Loss.......................ROM % 150.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40% 170.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40% 185.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40% 200.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40% 200.63......................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00% 205.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40% 210.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40% 225.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40% 250.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
Crimea: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crimeans-overwhelmingly-vote-secession-203643295.html The Russians are happy... but there was never any doubt. Russia took Crimea before the vote was held. Can a state secede from a union?? In 1861 13 states seceded from the US: http://www.civil-war.net/pages/ordinances_secession.asp Did they have the right?? Was it 'legal' for the Northern states to stop them?? I never thought so. What will THIS vote mean to world markets?? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-sundays-crimea-vote-means-for-markets-2014-03-14 Not much in the immediate time frame but the future adventures of Putin will be of more and more interest. Many people (including Putin) would like to see Russia return to the days of the USSR. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq1KbYUp8Ac It's crazy to see the Russians go nuts over the Beatles.
Bloomberg report: http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-aussie-slips-amid-crimea-vote-yuan-band-move Seems like a "blah" move. Maybe something else is causing the doldrums.