Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. MET:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-metlife-may-pays-barrons-170324559.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MET+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=met

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MET&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With MET at 53.31
    Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $48
    Yield = 48/452 = 10.6% in 311 days or 12.5% annualized
    Prob = 92%
    Expectation = .92(48) - .02(452) - .06(226) = 44.2 - 9.04 - 13.56 = 21.6


    Price...............................Profit / Loss............................ROI %
    25.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40%
    30.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40%
    35.00............................... (452.00)............................ -90.40%
    39.52....................................... 0.00.................................. 0.00%
    40.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
    45.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
    50.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
    60.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%
    65.00..................................... 48.00................................ 10.60%


    [​IMG]
     
    #671     Mar 11, 2014
  2. PLUG:
    :)
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy...as-analyst-says-fair-share-value-is-50-cents/

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-shares-soar-wal-194511634.html

    http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2014/03/11/plug-power-walmart-fuel-cells/?source=yahoo_quote

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PLUG+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=plug

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PLUG&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=plug

    Trade:
    with PLUG at 6.03
    June 10/13 bear call spread for a net credit of $40
    Yield = 40/260 = 15.4% in 101 days or 56% annualized
    Prob = 85%
    Expectation = .85(40) - .10(260) - .05(130) = 34 - 26 - 6.5 = 1.5


    Price............................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
    4.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40%
    6.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40%
    9.00................................. 40.00.......................... 15.40%
    10.00.............................. 40.00.......................... 15.40%
    10.40................................. 0.00............................. 0.00%
    11.51.......................... (111.20)...................... -37.07%
    13.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67%
    14.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67%
    16.00.......................... (260.00)...................... -86.67%
     
    #672     Mar 11, 2014
  3. BLDP:

    See PLUG above
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy...as-analyst-says-fair-share-value-is-50-cents/
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bldp
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BLDP+Key+Statistics
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BLDP&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BLDP&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=PLUG&ql=1

    Trade:
    with BLDP at 5.1
    Aug 3/1 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
    Yield = 45/155 = 29% in 157 days or 67% annualized


    Price..........................Profit / Loss.....................ROI %
    0.75............................... (155.00)................... -77.50%
    1.00............................... (155.00)................... -77.50%
    1.83............................... (72.00)...................... -36.00%
    2.55.................................... 0.00............................ 0.00%
    2.97.................................. 41.60......................... 20.80%
    3.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%
    4.10.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%
    5.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%
    6.00.................................. 45.00......................... 29.00%

    [​IMG]
     
    #673     Mar 11, 2014
  4. PFE:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/study-pfizer-vaccine-cuts-pneumonia-215937954.html

    very expensive study with a very positive outcome. Still need to look at toxicity.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PFE&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With PFE at 31.98
    Jan'15 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $34
    Yield = 34/466 = 7.3% in 310 days or 8.6% annualized
    Prob = 91%
    Expectation = .91(34) - .01(466) - .07(233) = 30.94 - 4.66 - 16.31 = 9.97


    Price......................................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
    15.00......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20%
    19.79......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20%
    20.00......................................... (466.00)................ -93.20%
    24.66................................................. 0.00....................... 0.00%
    24.84.............................................. 17.90....................... 3.58%
    25.00............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
    29.88............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
    34.93............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
    39.98............................................... 34.00...................... 7.30%
     
    #674     Mar 12, 2014
  5. HIMX:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=HIMX+Profile

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12527256/1/why-himax-himx-is-up-today.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/time-focus-himax-technologies-himx-115226486.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HIMX+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HIMX&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With HIMX at 15.65
    April 12/14 bull call spread for a net debit of $154


    Price.............................Profit / Loss.......................ROI %
    10.00............................. (154.00)....................... -100.00%
    11.00............................. (154.00)........................ -100.00%
    12.00............................. (154.00)........................ -100.00%
    13.16................................ (37.90)............................ -24.61%
    13.54..................................... 0.00.................................. 0.00%
    14.00................................... 46.00............................... 29.87%
    15.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87%
    15.65....................................46.00.................................29.87%
    17.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87%
    19.00................................... 46.00................................ 29.87%

    Alternate trade:

    Sept 10/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
    Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 190 days or 19.0% annualized
    Prob = 77%
    Expectation = .76(45) - .01(455) - .23(228) = 34.20 - 4.55 - 52.21 = -22.6


    Price.............................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
    3.75................................. (455.00)................... -91.00%
    5.00................................. (455.00)................... -91.00%
    6.78................................. (276.50)................... -55.30%
    9.55......................................... 0.00......................... 0.00%
    9.98....................................... 42.90........................ 8.58%
    10.00.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90%
    13.17.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90%
    16.37.................................... 45.00........................ 9.90%
    19.56.................................... 45.00....................... 9.90%
     
    #675     Mar 13, 2014
  6. TEVA:

    http://news.investors.com/030614-69...upgrade.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-fda-nod-generic-evista-200752901.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...buyouts-lift-earnings-outlook.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TEVA+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=TEVA

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TEVA&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With TEVA at 48.76
    Sept 37/34 bull put spread for a net credit of $23
    Yield = 23/277 = 8.3% in 190 days or 16% annualized
    Prob = 91%
    Expectation = .91(23) - .04(277) - .05(138) = 20.9 - 11.8 - 6.9 = 2.2


    Price....................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
    25.00.................... (277.00)......................... -92.33%
    32.00.................... (277.00)......................... -92.33%
    34.00.................... (277.00).......................... -92.33%
    36.77............................ 0.00................................ 0.00%
    37.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30%
    39.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30%
    45.00......................... 23.00.............................. 8.30%
    48.76..........................23.00.............................. 8.30%
    50.00........................ 23.00............................... 8.30%
     
    #676     Mar 13, 2014
  7. #677     Mar 13, 2014
  8. SPY

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

    http://www.thestar.com/business/per...p_as_more_investors_buy_stocks_on_margin.html

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...hmC6cWvMoULn2WZi7-GsosQ&bvm=bv.62922401,d.dmQ

    http://www.minyanville.com/business...ooper-Did-Yesterday-Mark-a/3/12/2014/id/54129

    Trade:

    Sept 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $63
    Yield = 63/437 = 14.4% in 188 days or 28% annualized
    Prob = 80%
    Expectation = .80(63) - .14(437) - .06(218) = 50.4 - 61.18 - 13.08 = -23.84


    Price.................................Profit / Loss.......................ROM %
    150.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
    170.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
    185.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
    200.00..................................... 63.00........................... 14.40%
    200.63......................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
    205.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
    210.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
    225.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
    250.00.................................. (437.00)....................... -87.40%
     
    #678     Mar 15, 2014
  9. Crimea:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crimeans-overwhelmingly-vote-secession-203643295.html

    The Russians are happy... but there was never any doubt. Russia took Crimea before the vote was held.

    Can a state secede from a union??

    In 1861 13 states seceded from the US:

    http://www.civil-war.net/pages/ordinances_secession.asp

    Did they have the right?? Was it 'legal' for the Northern states to stop them??

    I never thought so.

    What will THIS vote mean to world markets??

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-sundays-crimea-vote-means-for-markets-2014-03-14

    Not much in the immediate time frame but the future adventures of Putin will be of more and more interest. Many people (including Putin) would like to see Russia return to the days of the USSR.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq1KbYUp8Ac


    It's crazy to see the Russians go nuts over the Beatles.

    :)
     
    #679     Mar 16, 2014
  10. xandman

    xandman

    #680     Mar 16, 2014