Ukraine and Crimea : Tomorrow's open may well be down because of Putin's sabre rattling over the Ukraine. I believe this will be short lived so I don't plan to do anything. Since the market is so overbought it could trigger a decline with the Ukraine as an excuse... just to let a little air out of the bubble. I find Putin's statement that he needs to exert control over events in the Ukraine in order to protect Russians and 'Russian speakers' living there a bit worrisome... he could say the same about New York city which seems to have more Russians than the Crimea. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea http://stream.wsj.com/story/deadly-clashes-in-ukraine/SS-2-457850/ It's interesting to review the current situation and compare it to Obama's recent threat to bomb Syria in order to protect US interests there... and especially to review Putin's op-ed in the NY Times in that instance: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-putins-new-york-times-op-ed-lets-revisit-it/ http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?hp&_r=2& I was in Kiev in the sixties and found it a singularly unpleasant place... mostly because it was full of people who looked like Putin:
Update: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=acat http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zacks-rank-5-additions-tuesday-130954122.html New Trade: with ACAT at 47.45 Sept 45/40 bear put spread for a net debit of $150 Potential Yield = 350/150 = 230% in 199 days Price................................Profit / Loss..........................ROI % 30.00................................. 350.00............................... 233.33% 35.00................................. 350.00............................... 233.33% 40.00................................. 350.00............................... 233.33% 41.41.................................. 209.10............................... 139.40% 43.50.......................................... 0.00................................... 0.00% 45.00.................................. (150.00).......................... -100.00% 50.00.................................. (150.00).......................... -100.00% 55.00.................................. (150.00).......................... -100.00% 60.00.................................. (150.00).......................... -100.00%
GTLS: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-chart-industries-gtls-060028281.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GTLS+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GTLS&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with GTLS at 85.56 Sept 110/115 bear call spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.89% in 198 days or 18.2% annualized Prob = 86.8% Expectation = .868(45) - .097(455) - .035(228) = 39.1 - 44.2 - 8.0 = -13.1 Price......................Profit / Loss..........................ROI % 85.00............................ 45.00................................. 9.89% 90.00............................ 45.00................................. 9.89% 95.00............................ 45.00................................. 9.89% 110.00......................... 45.00................................. 9.89% 110.45............................ 0.00.................................. 0.00% 111.60..................... (114.60)........................... -22.92% 115.00..................... (455.00)........................... -91.00% 125.00..................... (455.00)........................... -91.00% 130.00..................... (455.00)........................... -91.00%
Ukraine: Here is an excellent review of events over the past few days from the London Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669670/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-live.html If you get fish and chips on the street in London they put it in a rolled up Telegraph. Here are some photos of Kiev in the '60s. A horrible place then and now. I think it has the worlds longest winter outside of the Artic. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk...oy-your-portfolio-2014-03-05?dist=lbeforebell
RSH: Dinosaur Trade http://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-radioshack-run-out-of-things-to-sell-2014-03-06?dist=lcountdown Goldman lowered RadioShack's price target to $1 from $2.25 based on a higher probability of default over the next three years by the CDS market, which is now about 80%. Shares are Sell rated. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui Trade: Oct 3/5 bear call spread for a net credit of $10 Yield = 10/190 = 5.3% in 225 days or 8.5% annualized Prob = 82% Expectation = .82(10) - .06(190) - .12(95) = 8.2 - 11.4 - 11.4 = -14.6 Price.......................Profit / Loss................ROI % 1.51............................ 10.00......................... 5.30% 2.42............................ 10.00......................... 5.30% 3.00............................ 10.00......................... 5.30% 3.10............................... 0.00......................... 0.00% 3.38............................ (27.80)................. -13.90% 4.34.......................... (123.50)................. -61.75% 5.00.......................... (190.00)................. -95.00% 5.29........................... (190.00)............... -95.00% 6.25........................... (190.00)............... -95.00%
DFE: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=DFE&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=DFE&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=SPY&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DFE+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=DFE+Holdings http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-signs-were-near-a-market-top-and-what-to-do-now-2014-03-07 http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/fre...er-close-watch-over-high-deficits_286844.html http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...et-deficit-to-widen-in-2015-without-more-cuts Trade: With DFE at 63.22 Aug 63/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $100 Yield = 100/100 = 100% in 160 days or 228% annualized Prob = 51% Price..............................Profit / Loss................ROI % 50.00............................... 100.00....................... 50.00% 55.00............................... 100.00....................... 50.00% 60.00............................... 100.00....................... 50.00% 63.00............................... 100.00....................... 50.00% 64.00...................................... 0.00......................... 0.00% 65.00............................... (100.00).................. -50.00% 70.00............................... (100.00).................. -50.00% 75.00............................... (100.00).................. -50.00% 80.00............................... (100.00).................. -50.00% A hundred dollars on red.
UNG: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/06/w...a-for-natural-gas.html?hpw&rref=business&_r=0 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNG+Basic+Chart Trade: With UNG at 25.55 Jan '15 18/15 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/275 = 9.1% in 314 days or 10.6% annualized Prob = 85% Price........................Profit / Loss...................ROI % 12.00......................... (275.00)...................... -91.67% 15.00......................... (275.00)...................... -91.67% 15.22......................... (253.00)...................... -84.33% 17.75.................................. 0.00............................ 0.00% 18.00............................... 25.00............................ 9.10% 20.00............................... 25.00............................ 9.10% 25.00............................... 25.00............................ 9.10% 30.00.............................. 25.00............................. 9.10%
WTW: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-weight-watchers-wtw-050021066.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...fit-forecast-trails-estimates.html?cmpid=yhoo http://www.thestreet.com/story/1252...till-a-heavy-sell.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://www.thestreet.com/story/1236...eting-aftermarket.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WTW+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WTW&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With WTW at 20.46 Jan'15 35/37.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 312 days or 13% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(25) - .05(225) - .02(113) = 23.25 - 11.25 - 2.26 = 9.7 Price...........................Profit / Loss......................ROI% 20.00................................. 25.00......................... 11.11% 25,00................................. 25.00......................... 11.11% 30.00................................. 25.00......................... 11.11% 35.00................................. 25.00......................... 11.11% 35.25.................................... 0.00............................ 0.00% 37.50............................. (225.00)...................... -90.00% 40.51............................. (225.00)...................... -90.00% 46.88............................. (225.00)...................... -90.00%
TSLA: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TSLA&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...s-pointing-to-netflix-tesla-bitcoin-and-more/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA+Key+Statistics Trade: Jan'15 300/305 bear call spread for a net credit of $100 Yield = 100/400 = 25% in 312 days or 29.2% annualized Prob = 75% Price........................Profit / Loss.......................ROI % 225.00......................... 100.00........................... 25.00% 250.00......................... 100.00........................... 25.00% 275.00......................... 100.00........................... 25.00% 300.00......................... 100.00........................... 25.00% 301.00............................... 0.00............................. 0.00% 305.00........................ (400.00)...................... -80.00% 320.00........................ (400.00)...................... -80.00% 340.00........................ (400.00)...................... -80.00%
NILE: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-blue-nile-nile-050020381.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NILE+Profile http://www.bluenile.com/ http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-nile-announces-fourth-quarter-123000714.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NILE+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=nile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NILE&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With NILE at 36.13 Aug 45/50 bear call spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 157 days or 23% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(45) - .054(455) - .076(228) = 39.2 - 24.6 - 17.3 = -2.7 Price.........................Profit / Loss........................ROI % 30.00............................... 45.00............................ 9.90% 35.00............................... 45.00............................ 9.90% 40.00............................... 45.00............................ 9.90% 45.00............................... 45.00............................ 9.90% 45.45.................................. 0.00............................ 0.00% 48.20........................... (274.60)..................... -54.92% 50.00........................... (455.00)..................... -91.00% 55.00........................... (455.00)..................... -91.00% 60.00........................... (455.00)...................... -91.00% Alternate Trade: Aug 30/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $72 Yield = 72/428 = 16.8% in 157 days or 39.1% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(72) - .05(428) - .17(214) = 56.2 - 21.4 - 36.2 = -1.4 Price.........................Profit / Loss........................ROI % 18.00............................ (428.00)...................... -85.60% 20.00............................ (428.00)...................... -85.60% 25.00............................ (428.00)...................... -85.60% 29.15............................ (12.50)........................... -2.50% 29.28................................. 0.00............................... 0.00% 30.00............................... 72.00............................ 16.80% 35.00............................... 72.00............................ 16.80% 40.00............................... 72.00............................ 16.80% 45.00.............................. 72.00............................. 16.80%