Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. ACAT:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-arctic-cat-acat-060023711.html

    http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...obile-maker-arctic-cat-inc-stock-plunged.aspx

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ACAT+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ACAT

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq9ayTSJorQ

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACAT&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACAT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    with ACAT at 44.85
    Jun 45/40 bear put spread for a net debit of $185
    Potential Yield = 315/185 = 170% in 115 days


    Price....................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
    30.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
    35.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
    40.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
    40.34..................... 280.90...................... 151.84%
    43.15........................... 0.00............................ 0.00%
    45.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%
    50.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%
    55.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%
     
    #651     Feb 25, 2014
  2. WFM:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-whole-foods-market-060028610.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/whole-foods-plunges-earnings-miss-145006981.html

    http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ods-growth-slows-as-competition-heats-up.aspx

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/8b1ab4f2-94e8-11e3-a8ac-00144feab7de.html#axzz2uPwZNssP

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wfm

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WFM+Key+Statistics

    Trade:
    with WFM at 53.55
    Aug 62.50/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $35
    Yield = 35/215 = 16.3% in 170 days or 35% annualized
    Prob = 85.5%
    Expectation = .855(35) - .09(215) - .055(107) = 29.9 - 19.4 - 5.9 = 4.6


    Price...............................Profit / Loss....................ROM %
    40.00................................... 35.00........................... 16.30%
    50.00................................... 35.00........................... 14.00%
    55.00................................... 35.00........................... 14.00%
    62.50................................... 35.00........................... 14.00%
    62.85...................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
    64.65............................... (179.90)....................... -71.96%
    65.00............................... (215.00)....................... -86.00%
    70.00............................... (215.00)....................... -86.00%
    75.00............................... (215.00)........................ -86.00%
     
    #652     Feb 26, 2014
  3. TLT:

    Treasuries at 10%:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=TLT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    With TLT at 107.35

    Jan '16 85/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $80
    yield = 80/420 = 19.05% in 687 days or 10.1% annualized
    Prob = 96%
    Expectation = .96(80) - .02(420) - .02(210) = 76.8 - 8.4 - 4.2 = 64.2

    TLT currently yields 3.07%

    :)
     
    #654     Feb 26, 2014
  4. TASR:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/solid-q4-earnings-taser-181004567.html

    http://news.investors.com/022614-69...es-rise.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TASR

    Trade:
    with TASR at 18.93
    Jun 15/12 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
    Yield = 35/265 = 13.2% in 114 days or 42% annualized
    Prob = 70%
    Expectation = .7(35) - .22(265) - .08(137) = 24.5 - 58.3 - 11.0 = -44.8

    Price................................Profit / Loss.......................ROI %
    9.00................................... (265.00)......................... -88.33%
    11.00................................ (265.00)......................... -88.33%
    12.00................................ (265.00)......................... -88.33%
    14.65........................................ 0.00............................... 0.00%
    14.78...................................... 12.60.............................. 4.20%
    15.00...................................... 35.00............................ 13.20%
    17.00...................................... 35.00............................ 13.20%
    20.00...................................... 35.00............................ 13.20%
    25.00...................................... 35.00............................ 13.20%
     
    #655     Feb 26, 2014
  5. #656     Feb 27, 2014
  6. MCD:

    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...risk-jpmorgan-says/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MCD&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:

    Jun 87.50/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
    Yield = 25/225 = 11.11% in 113 days or 36% annualized
    Prob = 91%
    Expectation = .91(25) - .03(225) - .06(112) = 22.75 - 6.75 - 6.72 = 9.3


    Price...................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
    75.00.................... (225.00).................. -90.00%
    80.00.................... (225.00).................. -90.00%
    85.00.................... (225.00).................. -90.00%
    85.44.................... (181.40).................. -72.56%
    87.25............................ 0.00........................ 0.00%
    87.50......................... 25.00..................... 11.11%
    95.00......................... 25.00.................... 11.11%
    100.00....................... 25.00.................... 11.11%
    110.00....................... 25.00.................... 11.11%
     
    #657     Feb 27, 2014
  7. DVA:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101450261?__...hoo&doc=101450261%7cBuffett's+Berkshire+buys+

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/13/n...-private-chain-despite-track-record.html?_r=0

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DVA+Profile

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/davita-healthcare-beats-q4-earnings-152004404.html

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/health...new-high-after-company-ups-its-2014-forecast/

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/davita-treat-thousands-saudi-arabia-091200894.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DVA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With DVA at 68.02
    Oct 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
    Yield = 40/450 = 8.9% in 231 days or 14% annualized
    Prob = 90%
    Expectation = .9(40) - .03(450) - .07(225) = 36 - 13.5 - 15.75 = 6.75


    Price........................Profit / Loss............................ROI %
    40.00........................... (460.00)........................... -92.00%
    45.00........................... (460.00)........................... -92.00%
    50.00........................... (460.00)........................... -92.00%
    54.60................................... 0.00................................. 0.00%
    55.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%
    60.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%
    65.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%
    75.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%
    85.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_kidney
     
    #658     Feb 28, 2014
  8. GE:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-electric-slips-sell-210004927.html

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ge

    I currently have a Jan '15 22/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $33 on GE

    Based largely on this article:

    http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...electric-companys-backlog-swells-in-2013.aspx

    Given Zacks downgrade I am going to add a 30/35 bear call spread for a net credit of $29 to produce an Iron Condor (30/35, 22/20).

    My net yield will be 62/432 = 14.35% with 321 days left to expiration or 10% annualized.

    Prob = 88%/84%
    Expectation = .84(62) - .01(439) -.12(219) - .03(139) = 52.1 - 4.4 - 26.3 - 4.2 = 17.2


    Price.............................Profit / Loss......................ROI %
    15.00............................... (138.00)..................... -27.60%
    20.00............................... (138.00)..................... -27.60%
    20.52............................... (86.20)........................ -17.24%
    21.38.................................... 0.00............................... 0.00%
    22.00................................. 62.00............................. 14.35%
    26.33................................. 62.00............................. 14.35%
    30.00................................. 62.00............................. 14.35%
    30.62..................................... 0.00............................... 0.00%
    32.13.............................. (151.40)........................ -30.28%
    35.00.............................. (438.00)........................ -87.60%
    45.00.............................. (438.00)........................ -87.60%
     
    #659     Mar 1, 2014
  9. EHTH:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ehealth-down-strong-sell-214005896.html

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/1243...k-is-ehealth-ehth.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ehealth-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-210500505.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=EHTH+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EHTH&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=EHTH&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EHTH+Basic+Chart&t=5d

    Trade:

    May 60/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $60
    Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 75 days or 66% annualized
    Prob = 85%
    Expectation = .85(60) - .088(440) - .07(220) = 51 - 39 - 15 = -3


    Current Price: $48


    Price...................................Profit / Loss........................ROI%
    35.00..................................... 60.00.............................. 13.60%
    45.00..................................... 60.00.............................. 13.60%
    55.00..................................... 60.00.............................. 13.60%
    60.00..................................... 60.00.............................. 13.60%
    60.60......................................... 0.00................................. 0.00%
    62.97.................................. (236.70).......................... -47.34%
    65.00.................................. (440.00).......................... -88.00%
    70.00.................................. (440.00).......................... -88.00%
    75.00.................................. (440.00).......................... -88.00%
     
    #660     Mar 2, 2014