T: From above http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-stocks-to-beat-a-declining-market-2014-02-07?pagenumber=1 http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/121213/ATampT-Beats-on-Q4-Earnings-amp-Revs http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=T+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=T http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=T&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=T+Basic+Chart&t=2y T pays a 5.7% annual dividend I'm willing to be put at $25 and sell calls until called. Trade: Oct 27/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/175 = 14.3% in 250 days or 20.8% annualized Prob = 90% Expectation = .9(25) - .03(175) - .07(87.5) = 22.5 - 5.25 - 6.12 = 11.13 Price..................................Profit / Loss....................ROI % 20.00..................................... (175.00)................... -87.50% 24.00..................................... (175.00).................... -87.50% 25.00..................................... (175.00)..................... -87.50% 26.75............................................. 0.00......................... 0.00% 27.00........................................... 25.00...................... 14.30% 29.00........................................... 25.00...................... 14.30% 31.00........................................... 25.00...................... 14.30% 35.00........................................... 25.00...................... 14.30% 40.00........................................... 25.00...................... 14.30%
ECYT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-day-endocyte-ecyt-060022832.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/endocyte-inc-ecyt-focus-stock-062100681.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ECYT+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ECYT+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/news/preclinical-data-support-endocytes-folate-210100411.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/1208...arian-cancer-drug.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/narrower-expected-loss-endocyte-145003642.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ECYT&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with ECYT at 12.67 July 7.5/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/220 = 13.6% in 156 days or 31.9% annualized Prob = 72% Expectation = .72(30) - .15(220) - .13(110) = 21.6 - 33 - 14.3 = -25.7 Price....................Profit / Loss......................ROI % 3.75.......................... (220.00) ....................-88.00% 5.00.......................... (220.00).................... -88.00% 6.25........................... (94.55)...................... -37.82% 7.20................................. 0.00............................ 0.00% 7.50............................... 30.00......................... 12.00% 8.00............................... 30.00......................... 12.00% 10.00............................ 30.00......................... 12.00% 12.00............................ 30.00......................... 12.00% 14.00............................ 30.00......................... 12.00% Alternate trade: with EYCT at 12.67 Jul 10/12.5 bull call spread for a net debit of $175 Price.............................Profit / Loss..................ROI % 7.50................................ (175.00)................... -100.00% 9.50................................ (175.00)................... -100.00% 10.00............................. (175.00)................... -100.00% 11.75..................................... 0.00............................ 0.00% 12.50................................... 75.00......................... 42.86% 13.00................................... 75.00......................... 42.86% 15.00................................... 75.00......................... 42.86% 17.00................................... 75.00......................... 42.86%
INTC: There is so much blather on the internet about INTC it is hard to make a rational trade. To me the following graph reduces endless blah blah blah to essentials: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=intc In mid January INTC missed expectations on earnings and gapped down. It then drifted down for a couple of weeks and has now risen again to the point where a trade might be in order. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-fourth-quarter-revenue-exceeds-210904920.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...ning-outlook-2014-01-16-1710308?siteid=yhoof2 http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...1-rev-view-in-line/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...-numbers-say-bears/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/slumping-intel-cut-more-5-225424444.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=INTC+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=INTC&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=INTC&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With INTC at 24.7 Jul 27/29 bear call spread for a net credit of $27 Yield = 27/173 = 15.6% in 154 days or 37% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(27) - .09(173) - .13(86) = 21 - 15.5 - 11 = -5.5 Price...........................Profit / Loss.....................ROI % 18.00.............................. 27.00.......................... 15.60% 22.00.............................. 27.00........................... 15.60% 25.00.............................. 27.00........................... 15.60% 27.00............................. 27.00............................ 15.60% 27.27................................. 0.00.............................. 0.00% 29.00.......................... (173.00)....................... -86.50% 30.00.......................... (173.00)....................... -86.50% 33.00.......................... (173.00)....................... -86.50% 35.00.......................... (173.00)....................... -86.50%
KRFT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-misses-earnings-revs-again-134008183.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/krafts-4q-profit-rises-sales-220033872.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=KRFT+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KRFT+Basic+Chart Trade: With KRFT at 53.97 Sept 60/62.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $20 Yield = 20/230 = 8.7% in 217 days or 14,6% annualized Prob = (not computable because of the recent sale) Price..............................Profit / Loss...............ROI % 45.00................................ 20.00........................ 8.70% 50.00............................... 20.00......................... 8.70% 55.00............................... 20.00......................... 8.70% 60.00............................... 20.00......................... 8.70% 60.20.................................. 0.00......................... 0.00% 62.50........................... (230.00).................. -92.00% 65.00........................... (230.00).................. -92.00% 70.00........................... (230.00).................. -92.00% 75.00........................... (230.00).................. -92.00%
UPS: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-hikes-dividend-213004349.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-releases-4q-results-151800919.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=UPS+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UPS&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with UPS at 97.24 Jan '15 77.5/72.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $38 Yield = 38/462 = 8.2% in 336 days or 8.9% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(38) - .01(462) - .03(231) = 36.5 - 4.62 - 6.93 = 25 Price................................Profit / Loss...................ROI % 65.00................................. (462.00)................... -92.40% 70.00................................. (462.00)................... -92.40% 72.50................................. (462.00).................... -92.40% 77.12.......................................... 0.00.......................... 0.00% 77.50........................................ 38.00......................... 8.20% 80.00........................................ 38.00......................... 8.20% 85.00........................................ 38.00......................... 8.20% 95.00........................................ 38.00......................... 8.20% 100.00..................................... 38.00......................... 8.20% 110.00..................................... 38.00......................... 8.20%
CPB: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/14/campbell-soup-profit/5480333/ http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbells-q2-earnings-outperform-193358534.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CPB+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB+Basic+Chart Trade: with CPB at 43.01 Jan '15 30/35 bull call spread for a net debit of $3.50 Yield = 150/350 = 42.8% in 334 days or 46.8% annualized Prob that CPB will be above 35 = 84% Expectation (given a fill): .84(150) - .04(350) - .12(175) = 126 - 14 - 21 = 91 This spread pricing is based on last pricing not on bid/ask. bid/ask pricing provides a negative return for this spread. What's the prob that OptionsXpress , using their execution capabilities, can get this fill?? Unknown... costs nothing to try. Assured fill spreads (e.g. bid/ask bull put spreads) yield about 7% annualized. This is not enough for me to make the trade. Price..........................Profit / Loss................ROI % 22.50........................... (350.00)............... -100.00% 28.50........................... (350.00)................ -100.00% 30.00........................... (350.00)................ -100.00% 33.50................................... 0.00......................... 0.00% 34.82............................. 131.60...................... 37.60% 35.00............................. 150.00...................... 42.86% 41.13............................. 150.00...................... 42.86% 47.45............................. 150.00...................... 42.86% 53.76............................. 150.00...................... 42.86%
BA: http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...organ-stanley-says/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/02/07/boeing-time-to-buy/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-outlook-sinks-stock-despite-204909846.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-q4-core-profit-29-132847313.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bo...deliveries-2014-01-29-121033740?siteid=yhoof2 http://www.thestreet.com/story/1228...eted-on-wednesday.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BA+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=BA http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BA&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BA&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Boeing pays a dividend of 2.2% annualized Trade: With BA at 130.16 Jan '15 90/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 333 days or 9.5% annualized Prob = 97% Expectation = .97(40) - .02(460) - .01(230) = 38.8 - 9.2 - 2.3 = 27 Price..................................Profit / Loss.........................ROI % 63.75.................................... (460.00)......................... -92.00% 82.74.................................... (460.00)......................... -92.00% 85.00.................................... (460.00).......................... -92.00% 89.60............................................. 0.00.............................. 0.00% 90.00.......................................... 40.00............................... 8.70% 100.00....................................... 40.00............................... 8.70% 120.00........................................ 40.00.............................. 8.70% 140.00........................................ 40.00.............................. 8.70% 160.00........................................ 40.00...............................8.70% Better than Barron's recommendation to 'buy Boeing on weakness" ??
AAPL: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-buy-signals-have-surfaced-2014-02-14 http://wallstcheatsheet.com/technol...ocked-to-apple-in-fourth-quarter.html/?ref=YF http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-1q-disappoints-investors-stock-005255190.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-iphone-sales-china-targets-011748638.html http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/cramer-it-may-be-time-to-show-apple-some-love-again.html/?ref=YF http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL+Key+Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aapl http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with AAPL at 543.99 July 420/415 bull put spread for a net credit of $33 Yield = 33/467 = 7.1% in 151 days or 17.1% annualized Prob = 97% Expectation = .97(33) - .02(467) - .01(234) = 32.0 - 9.3 - 2.3 = 20.4 Price...............................Profit / Loss.............................ROI % 400.00.............................. (467.00)............................. -93.40% 410.00.............................. (467.00)............................. -93.40% 415.00.............................. (467.00)............................. -93.40% 419.67....................................... 0.00................................... 0.00% 420.00..................................... 33.00................................... 7.10% 440.00..................................... 33.00................................... 7.10% 460.00..................................... 33.00................................... 7.10% 480.00..................................... 33.00................................... 7.10% 500.00..................................... 33.00................................... 7.10%
Do we need a hedge? http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...bet-on-the-sp-500-to-the-tune-of-1-3-billion/ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy e.g. With SPY at 184.02 Sept 180/165 bear put spread for a net debit of $402 Price..............................Profit / Loss...........................ROI % 123.75.............................. 1098.00.......................... 273.13% 144.15.............................. 1098.00.......................... 273.13% 165.00.............................. 1098.00.......................... 273.13% 165.62.............................. 1036.40.......................... 257.81% 175.98......................................... 0.00............................... 0.00% 180.00................................... (402.00)..................... -100.00% 187.09................................... (402.00)..................... -100.00% 208.56................................... (402.00)..................... -100.00% 230.03................................... (402.00)..................... -100.00% How about SSO which is the double SPY ETF: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SSO&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=SPY&ql=1 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSO with SSO at 101.33 Sept 95/8O bear put spread for a net debit of $371 Price........................Profit / Loss...............ROI % 60.00......................... 1129.00................ 304.31% 72.79......................... 1129.00................ 304.31% 80.00......................... 1129.00................ 304.31% 86.26............................ 502.90................ 135.55% 91.29.................................. 0.00..................... 0.00% 95.00........................... (371.00)............ -100.00% 99.73........................... (371.00)............ -100.00% 113.20........................ (371.00)............ -100.00% 126.66........................ (371.00)............ -100.00% Maybe George is just playing a Martingale strategy..... double your bet on each loss until you are right.
FRX: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/actavis-confirms-25-bln-forest-labs-acquistion-2014-02-18-791154 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FRX Trade: With FRX at 91.97 Jan '15 80/70 bull put spread for a net credit of $120 Yield = 120/880 = 13.6% Such deals usually take 6 months to close so that equals an annualized 27% (more or less)