BND: An income trade http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BND&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=BND+Holdings http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BND+Basic+Chart Trade: Sept 78/75 bull put spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/270 = 11.1% in 227 days or 17.9% annualized Prob = 94% Expectation = .94(30) - .01(270) - .05(135) = 28.2 - 2.7 - 6.75 = 18.8
MRK: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/merck...;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MRK+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=MRK+Competitors http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRK&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRK&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mrk MRK pays a 3.3% dividend Trade: With MRK at 53.53 Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $41 Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 345 days or 9.4% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(41) - .02(459) - .06(230)= 37.7 - 9.2 - 13.8 = 14.7
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/experiment-adds-sense-touch-artificial-194204452.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/...rosthetic-hand-allows-man-to-touch-again.html God Bless them. What an accomplishment.
GLW: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/corning-announces-fourth-quarter-full-121201791.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gorilla-glass-maker-corning-says-130901479.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/corning-hit-gorilla-glass-woes-204005276.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...cialty-materials-businesses/?partner=yahootix http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-is-still-not-corning-incorporateds-frie.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GLW+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=GLW&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLW&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With GLW at 17.55 Aug '14 20/25 bear call spread for a net credit of $36 Yield = 36/464 = 7.76% in 190 days or 14.9% annualized Prob = 77.2% Expectation = .772(36) - .03(464) - .2(232) = 27.8 - 13.9 -46.4 = -32.5 Price............................Profit / Loss...................ROI % 15.00............................. 36.00.............................. 7.76% 18.00............................. 36.00............................. 7.76% 20.00............................. 36.00............................. 7.76% 20.29................................ 7.20............................. 1.44% 20.36................................. 0.00............................ 0.00% 23.94............................ (358.20)................... -71.64% 25.00............................ (464.00)................... -92.80% 27.50............................ (464.00)................... -92.80% 30.00............................ (464.00)................... -92.80% Also viable: Jan '15 12/10 bull put spread for a net credit of $15 Yield = 15/185 = 8.1% in 344 days or 8.6% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(15) - .02(185) - .07(92) = 13.6 - 3.7 - 6.44 = 3.5
K: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-beats-q4-earnings-revs-193009465.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-returns-profit-4q-revenue-132711595.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-cereals-struggle-keep-spot-165807931.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=K+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=K http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=K&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=K&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With K at 57,74 Jan '15 45/40 bull put spread for a net credit of $38 Yield = 38/462 = 8.2% in 345 days or 8.7% annualized Prob = 90% Expectation = .9(38) - .03(462) - .07(231) = 34.2 - 13.9 - 16.2 = 4.1 Price................................Profit / Loss.....................ROI % 30.00.................................. (462.00)..................... -92.40% 35.00.................................. (462.00)..................... -92.40% 40.00.................................. (462.00)..................... -92.40% 44.62.......................................... 0.00........................... 0.00% 45.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20% 50.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20% 55.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20% 60.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20% 65.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20%
VXX/SPY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPY&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=vxx Trade: with VXX at 48.51 Feb 48/53 bull call spread for a net debit of $190 Price................................Profit / Loss...................ROI % 36.00................................. (190.00)................... -100.00% 41.00................................. (190.00)................... -100.00% 47.00................................. (190.00)................... -100.00% 48.00.................................. (190.00).................. -100.00% 49.90........................................... 0.00........................... 0.00% 53.00..................................... 310.00..................... 163.16% 54.00..................................... 310.00..................... 163.16% 60.00..................................... 310.00...................... 163.16% 65.00...................................... 310.00..................... 163.16% or with spy at 177.48 Feb 175/170 bear put spread for a net debit of $190 Price..................Profit / Loss............ROI % 125.00................ 310.00................. 163.16% 145.00................ 310.00................. 163.16% 165.00................ 310.00................. 163.16% 170.00................ 310.00................. 163.16% 173.10...................... 0.00....................... 0.00% 175.00................ (190.00)............ -100.00% 180.00................ (190.00)............ -100.00% 200.00................ (190.00)............ -100.00% 220.00................ (190.00)............. -100.00%
TEVA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-beats-q4-earnings-revs-131004683.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TEVA+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=TEVA http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=teva http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TEVA&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with TEVA at 44.69 Sept 35/31 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/365 = 9.6% in 224 days or 15.6% annualized Prob = 83% Expectation = .83(35) - .07(365) - .1(182) = 29.1 - 25.55 - 18.2 = -15 Price.............................Profit / Loss...................ROi % 23.25.............................. (365.00) ...................-91.25% 29.51.............................. (365.00)................... -91.25% 31.00.............................. (365.00)................... -91.25% 34.65...................................... 0.00......................... 0.00% 35.00.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60% 36.10.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60% 42.69.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60% 49.27.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60% 55.86.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60%
Some late Christmas Cards: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYELs18r4i8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFmYwZ9Kn4c http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nc5UK80KTEs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYTS71PBXgs
COST: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-comps-surpass-expectations-215503090.html http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...vs-costco-do-lower-prices-trump-employee.aspx http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...s-walmart-federal-minimum-wage-obama/5029211/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=COST+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=COST+Competitors http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=cost http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=COST http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=COST&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=COST&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: Jan '15 85.5/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/515 = 6.8% in 341 days or 7.3% annualized (cost pays a dividend of 1.1% annualized) Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(35) - .03(515) - .04(258) = 32.55 - 15.45 - 10.32 = 6.8 Price....................Profit / Loss.....................ROI % 60.00...................... (515.00)..................... -93.64% 75.00...................... (515.00)..................... -93.64% 80.00...................... (515.00)..................... -93.64% 85.15.............................. 0.00........................... 0.00% 85.50............................ 35.00.......................... 6.80% 90.00............................ 35.00.......................... 6.80% 100.00......................... 35.00.......................... 6.80% 125.00......................... 35.00.......................... 6.80% 150.00......................... 35.00.......................... 6.80%
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-stocks-to-beat-a-declining-market-2014-02-07?pagenumber=1 ................................Hulbert's Quality Stocks............................... Stock..........................P/E.......................Beta.........................Chart AFL..............................9.57....................1.78............................ .X ALL............................10.97....................1.15..............................X WFC.........................11.66....................0.86..............................X BNS...........................10.66....................0.94..............................X RY...............................11.23....................1.14.............................X AAPL.........................12.92....................0.73............................X CSCO.........................12.33...................1.13............................X T.......................................9.53....................0.33............................X CVX.............................10.10....................1.11...........................X IBM..............................11.86....................0.67...........................X A good place to fish for trades e.g. T Oct 27/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/175 = 14.3% in 250 days or 20.8% annualized Prob = 90% Expectation = .9(25) - .03(175) - .07(87.5) = 22.5 - 5.25 - 6.12 = 11.13