CYS: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CYS+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CYS+Key+Statistics http://seekingalpha.com/article/192...violates-efficient-market-theory?source=yahoo http://seekingalpha.com/article/176...r-q3-and-its-outlook-is-positive?source=yahoo http://www.thestreet.com/story/1224...rpai-mtge-pwe-hts.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CYS&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With CYS at 7.86 Sell the Sept 7.0 put for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/700 = 8.57% in 231 days or 13.5% annualized CYS currently pays a 16% annual dividend (pays quarterly) Calls are also available to sell to raise income level. Chances are good that we will be able to collect our 13.5% without ever buying the stock, but if we ARE put we should be able to continue collecting a good income level anyway.
TLT: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=TLT&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/long-term-treasury-etfs-back-013639541.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With TLT at 106.73 Sept 95/90 bull put spread for a net credit of $65 Yield = 65/435 = 14.9% in 235 days or 23.2% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(65) - .02(435) - .06(217) = 59.8 - 8.7 - 13.02 = 38.1
PFE: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-beats-sales-profit-forecasts-124046200.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-tops-earnings-revs-guides-135732579.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PFE&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With PFA at 30.75 Sept 28/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/245 = 22.45% in 234 days or 35.0% annualized Prob = 73% Expectation = .73(55) - .09(445) - .18(222) = 40.15 - 40.05 - 40.0 = -39.9 Price...................Profit / Loss.....................ROI % 18.75....................... (245.00) ....................-81.67% 22.53....................... (245.00).................... -81.67% 25.00....................... (245.00).................... -81.67% 26.51....................... (94.40)....................... -31.47% 27.45............................ 0.00............................. 0.00% 28.00.......................... 55.00.......................... 22.45% 30.48.......................... 55.00.......................... 22.45% 34.46.......................... 55.00.......................... 22.45% 38.44.......................... 55.00.......................... 22.45%
AMGN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-strong-earnings-beat-amgen-153005981.html http://seekingalpha.com/article/197...r-and-oncology-pipeline-products?source=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amgen-4q-profit-leaps-30-234209873.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMGN+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=amgn http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=AMGN&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 AMGN pays a 2% annual dividend Trade: With AMGN at 120.49 Jan '15 82.5/77.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $34 Yield = 34/466 = 7.3% in 352 days or 7.6% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(34) - .04(466) -.03(233) = 31.62 - 18.64 - 6.99 = 5.99 Price.............................Profit / Loss...............ROI% 70.00............................. (466.00).................. -93.20% 75.00............................. (466.00).................. -93.20% 77.00............................. (466.00).................. -93.20% 80.00..............................(161.00).................. -32.20% 82.16..................................... 0.00......................... 0.00% 82.50................................... 34.00........................ 7.30% 85.00................................... 34.00........................ 7.30% 90.00................................... 34.00........................ 7.30% 95.00.................................. 34.00......................... 7.30% Update: I actually got $40 on this AMGN trade boosting my yield to 40/460 = 8.7% or 9% annualized
LOW: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-stocks-to-buy-instead-of-apple-2014-01-29?pagenumber=1 "Over the past couple of years, Lowe's stock has been on a very impressive price run. Based on a improving market and customer satisfaction creating very strong fundamentals, I believe any pullback in price is a buying opportunity. At current levels using the valuation metrics above, I have concluded that Lowe's is currently undervalued and have calculated it is trading at a 36.69% discount..." http://seekingalpha.com/article/1968711-lowes-a-good-time-to-buy?source=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LOW+Key+Statistics http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ings-jump-34-on-recovering-home-improvem.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LOW&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With LOW at 45.97 Jan '15 35/32 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/260 = 15.4% in 351 days or 16% annualized Prob = 88% Expectation = .88(40) - .06(260) - .06(130) = 35.2 - 15.6 - 7.8 = 11.8 Price.............................Profit / Loss..................ROI % 25.00................................ (260.00)................ -86.67% 30.00................................ (260.00)................ -86.67% 32.00................................ (260.00)................ -86.67% 34.60......................................... 0.00..................... 0.00% 35.00....................................... 40.00................. 15.40% 37.00....................................... 40.00................. 15.40% 40.00........................................ 40.00................ 15.40% 50.00........................................ 40.00................ 15.40% 55.00........................................ 40.00................ 13.33%
GIS: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-mills-kept-neutral-weak-225004818.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-mills-posts-lower-expected-122153684.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GIS+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=gis http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=GIS&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=GIS&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With GIS at 48.02 Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/445 = 12.4 % in 350 days or 12.9% annualized Prob = 89% Expectation = .89(55) - .02(445) - .09(223) = 48.95 - 8.9 - 20.07 = 20.0 Price..........................Profit / Loss.........................ROI % 25.00........................... (445.00)........................... -89.00% 30.00........................... (445.00)........................... -89.00% 35.00........................... (445.00)........................... -89.00% 39.45................................... 0.00.................................. 0.00% 40.00................................. 55.00............................... 12.40% 45.00................................. 55.00............................... 12.40% 50.00................................. 55.00............................... 12.40% 55.00................................. 55.00............................... 12.40%
AWR: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-buy-american-states-water-222503153.html http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...fit-from-americas-crumbling-infrastructu.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...-031300170.html;_ylt=AwrBJSDpRO5SHGsATSuTmYlQ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AWR+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=awr http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AWR+Basic+Chart Trade: With AWR at 28.40 Sept 25/30 bull call spread for a net debit of $340 Price............................Profit / Loss......................ROI % 18.00.......................... (340.00)....................... -100.00% 20.00.......................... (340.00)....................... -100.00% 25.00.......................... (340.00)...................... -100.00% 26.14.......................... (226.40)......................... -66.59% 28.40.................................. 0.00............................... 0.00% 29.92............................ 152.40............................. 44.82% 30.00............................ 160.00............................. 47.06% 35.00............................ 160.00............................. 47.06% 37.50............................ 160.00............................. 47.06%
WEC: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...PR_291787?WT.mc_id=NLTITLE_YYYYMMDD_PR_291787 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wec-upgraded-outperform-210004096.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wec-provides-financial-guidance-183003123.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=WEC&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=WEC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WEC&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With WEC at 42.19 Jul 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $80 Yield = 80/420 = 19.0% in 165 days Price........................Profit / Loss...................ROI % 26.25......................... (420.00)....................... -84.00% 31.33......................... (420.00)....................... -84.00% 35.00......................... (420.00)....................... -84.00% 36.68......................... (251.60)....................... -50.32% 39.20.................................. 0.00............................. 0.00% 40.00................................ 80.00......................... 19.00% 42.00................................ 80.00......................... 19.00% 45.00 ............................... 80.00......................... 19.00% 50.00 ............................... 80.00......................... 19.00%
WMT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-looks-lower-q4-215005859.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-cuts-outlook-due-135719210.html http://www.cnbc.com/id/101380735?__...hoo&doc=101380735%7cTime+to+close+Wal-Mart+st http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WMT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With WMT at 72.66 Jan '15 85/90 bear call spread for a net credit of $38 Yield = 38/462 = 8.22% in 347 days or 8.6% annualized Prob = 84% Expectation = .84(38) - .09(462) - .07(231) = 31.9 - 41.58 - 16.17 = -26 Price......................................Profit / Loss....................ROI% 55.00........................................ 38.00............................. 8.22% 65.00........................................ 38.00............................. 8.22% 75.00........................................ 38.00............................. 8.22% 85.00........................................ 38.00............................. 8.22% 85.38........................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00% 89.06...................................... (368.40)..................... -73.68% 90.00...................................... (462.00)...................... -92.40% 100.00................................... (462.00)...................... -92.40% 115.00................................... (462.00......................) -92.40%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101381010 Many years ago I was working as a bench chemist at the Rhom and Haas research facility in King of Prussia just outside of Philadelphia. I used to go to lunch at a Strawbridge's store at the nearby King of Prussia mall. I used to go by myself so I could sit and have my soup and sandwich and read my Wall Street Journal in peace. There was another guy who used to come in and do the same thing . I saw him there most days. It turned out to be Jack Bogle. At the time he was just starting the Vanguard funds. We used to eat our soup and discuss the WSJ articles on the markets. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Bogle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strawbridge's