Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. BBY:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/best-buy-holiday-sales-fall-130226548.html

    http://online.barrons.com/article/S...79324671626942380.html?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_2

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BBY+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=bby

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=BBY&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:

    With BBY at 26.83

    June 40/45 bear call spread for a net credit of $26
    Yield = 26/474 = 5.5% in 154 days or 13% annualized
    Prob = 92%
    Expectation = .92(26) - .04(474) - .04(237) = 23.9 - 19.0 - 9.5 = -4.6


    Price...............Profit / Loss................ROI %
    25.00................ 26.00.................... 5.5%
    30.00................ 26.00.................... 5.5%
    35.00................ 26.00.................... 5.5%
    40.00................ 26.00.................... 5.5%
    40.26.................. 0.00.................... 0.00%
    41.65................. (139.30)............ -27.86%
    45.00................. (474.00)............ -94.80%
    50.00................. (474.00)............ -94.80%
    55.00................. (474.00)............ -94.80%
     
    #601     Jan 17, 2014
  2. GE:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...forecasts-on-jet-engine-sales.html?cmpid=yhoo
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ge-earnings-jump-sales-rise-214500216.html
    http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...electric-companys-backlog-swells-in-2013.aspx
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GE+Key+Statistics
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GE&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With GE at 26.58
    Jan '15 22/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $33
    Yield = 33/167 = 19.8% in 369 days or 19.5% annualized
    Prob = 89%
    Expectation = .89(33) - .03(167) - .08(83) = 29.37 - 5.01 - 6.64 = 17.72



    Price.................................Profit / Loss.........................ROM %
    15.00.................................... (167.00)........................... -83.50%
    18.00.................................... (167.00)............................ -83.50%
    20.00.................................... (167.00)............................ -83.50%
    21.67............................................ 0.00................................... 0.00%
    22.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
    23.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
    25.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
    29.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
    33.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
     
    #602     Jan 20, 2014
  3. THC:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tenet-downgraded-sell-181005508.html
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tenet-healthcare-falls-analyst-lowers-181130143.html
    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-earnings-guidance/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=THC+Key+Statistics
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=THC
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=THC+Basic+Chart

    Trade:
    With THC at 45.30
    May 45/43 bear put spread for a net debit of $90

    Price...........................Profit / Loss.......................ROI %
    32.00............................. 110.00........................ 122.22%
    36.00............................. 110.00........................ 122.22%
    41.00............................. 110.00........................ 122.22%
    43.00............................. 110.00........................ 122.22%
    44.10................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
    45.00............................... (90.00).................... -100.00%
    46.00............................... (90.00)................... -100.00%
    51.00............................... (90.00)................... -100.00%
    56.00............................... (90.00)................... -100.00%
     
    #603     Jan 21, 2014
  4. PTM:

    (a portfolio diversification trade)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...otes-for-strike-to-hobble-platinum-mines.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-p...-233027147.html;_ylt=A2KJ3CTRi99S.VsAaJKTmYlQ

    http://www.businessinsider.com/platinum-prices-surging-2014-1

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-etfs-play-platinums-coming-202430720.html

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/113382/time-to-buy-this-precious-metal-etf

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=PTM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=tlt&ql=1&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=PTM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:
    With PTM at 16.23
    May 16/18 bull call spread for a net debit of $75


    Price....................Profit / Loss..........ROI %
    12.00...................... (75.00)........... -100.00%
    14.00...................... (75.00)........... -100.00%
    16.00...................... (75.00)........... -100.00%
    16.75......................... 0.00............... 0.00%
    18.00...................... 125.00............ 166.67%
    19.00...................... 125.00............ 166.67%
    20.00...................... 125.00............ 166.67%
    22.00...................... 125.00............ 166.67%

    If one is not afraid to acquire PTM one could sell the Aug 16 put for $80 giving 5% to Aug 15th (206 days)
     
    #604     Jan 22, 2014
  5. MCD:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...le-changed-on-u-s-store-sales.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-profit-despite-fewer-customers-132023157.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/mcdo...hanged-nFb3WU38Qu~Sc4whTkEYkA.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MCD+Basic+Chart&t=5y

    Trade:
    premarket MCD is down 44 cents at 94.44

    Jan '15 105/110/70/65 Iron Condor for a net credit of $81
    Yield = 81/419 = 19.3% in 358 days or 19.7% annualized
    Prob = 80/99%


    Price..............................Profit / Loss.....................ROM %
    60.00.............................. (419.00)....................... -83.80%
    65.00.............................. (419.00)....................... -83.80%
    65.78.............................. (340.70)....................... -68.14%
    69.19..................................... 0.00 ..............................0.00%
    70.00................................... 81.00.......................... 19.33%
    80.00................................... 81.00.......................... 19.33%
    100.00................................ 81.00.......................... 19.33%
    105.00................................ 81.00.......................... 19.33%
    105.81.................................... 0.00.......................... 0.00%
    110.00............................... (419.00).................. -83.80%
    137.50............................... (419.00).................. -83.80%

    Profitable between 69.19 and 105.81 with a prob of 77%
     
    #605     Jan 23, 2014
  6. BAX:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/baxter-beats-earnings-revenues-200705501.html

    http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ernational-inc-will-be-nit-picked-but-th.aspx

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/baxter-reports-fourth-quarter-2013-120000141.html

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAX


    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BAX+Basic+Chart&t=2y

    Trade:
    With BAX at $69
    Jan '15 72.5/75 bear call spread for a net credit of $80
    Yield = 80/170 = 47% in 358 days or 48% annualized


    Price........................Profit / Loss.............ROI %
    55.00.................................. 80.00........................... 47.00%
    60.00.................................. 80.00...........................47.00%
    65.00.................................. 80.00........................... 47.00%
    70.00.................................. 80.00........................... 47.00%
    73.30..................................... 0.00........................... 0.00%
    75.00............................... (170.00).................... -68.00%
    80.00............................... (170.00).................... -68.00%
    85.00............................... (170.00).................... -68.00%
    90.00............................... (170.00).................... -68.00%
     
    #606     Jan 23, 2014
  7. HLF:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-day-herbalife-hlf-060018590.html

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hlf

    I posted a Jan '15 30/25 bull put spread on Dec 26th.

    Update using today's numbers:
    With HLF at 65.92
    Jan '15 30/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $80
    Yield = 80/420 = 19.0% in 357 days or 19.5% annualized
    Prob = 78%
    Expectation = .78(80) - .15(420) - .07(210) = 62.4 - 63 - 14.7 = -15.3

    Price.............Profit / Loss................ROI %
    20.00...................... (420.00).................... -84.00%
    25.00...................... (420.00).................... -84.00%
    29.20.............................. 0.00.......................... 0.00%
    30.00........................... 80.00....................... 16.00%
    35.00........................... 80.00....................... 16.00%
    40.00.......................... 80.00........................ 16.00%
    45.00.......................... 80.00........................ 16.00%
    50.00.......................... 80.00........................ 16.00%
    55.00.......................... 80.00........................ 16.00%
     
    #607     Jan 24, 2014
  8. PG:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-g-beats-earnings-fx-220832792.html

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101362150?__...hoo&doc=101362150%7cThis+boring+stock+won+tod

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ty-is-trimming-grooming-sales.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PG+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=PG

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PG&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With PG at 79.18
    Jan '15 60/55/90/95 Iron Condor for a net credit of $92
    Yield = 92/408 = 22.5% in 356 days or 23.1% annualized
    Prob = 73%
    Expectation = .73(92) - .137(408) - .13(204) =67.2 - 55.9 - 26.52 = -15.2


    Price.....................Profit / Loss................ROI %
    45.00............................ (408.00)........................... -81.60%
    55.00............................ (408.00)........................... -81.60%
    56.12............................ (295.60)........................... -59.12%
    59.08................................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
    60.00................................. 92.00.................................23.10%
    70.00................................. 92.00.................................23.10%
    80.00................................. 92.00..................................23.10%
    90.00................................. 92.00..................................23.10%
    90.92.................................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
    95.00.............................. (408.00)........................... -81.60%
    120.00........................... (408.00)............................ -81.60%
     
    #608     Jan 25, 2014
  9. BMY:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brist...;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/25/b...pected-results.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bristol-myers-beats-sales-profit-130411950.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BMY&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=BMY&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=BMY&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:
    With BMY at 50.94
    Jan '15 32/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
    Yield = 30/370 = 8.10% in 356 days or 8.3% annualized
    Prob = 95%
    Expectation = .95(30) - .02(470) - .03(235) = 28.5 - 9.4 - 7.05 = 12.1


    Price..........................Profit / Loss................ROI %
    21.00........................... (370.00)................. -92.50%
    28.00........................... (370.00)................. -92.50%
    29.19........................... (251.00).................. -62.75%
    31.70.................................... 0.00....................... 0.00%
    32.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
    35.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
    40.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
    50.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
    60.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
     
    #609     Jan 25, 2014
  10. URBN:

    http://online.barrons.com/article/S...79334734005936704.html?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_2

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/urban-outfitters-reports-record-holiday-124000334.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sector-wrap-retailers-good-bet-215740778.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=URBN+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=URBN

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=URBN&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=URBN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:
    With URBN at $36
    Jan '15 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
    Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 354 days or 9% annualized
    Prob = 88%
    Expectation = .88(40) - .03(460) - .09(230) = 35.2 - 13.8 - 20.7 = 0

    Price..........................Profit / Loss................ROI %
    15.00.......................... (460.00).................. -92.00%
    20.00.......................... (460.00).................. -92.00%
    20.76.......................... (384.20).................. -76.84%
    24.60.................................. 0.00........................ 0.00%
    25.00............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
    26.82............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
    32.88............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
    38.94............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
    45.00............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
     
    #610     Jan 25, 2014