ARO: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1222...is-rallying-today.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ARO&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ARO&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= With ARO at 8.97 and allowing three months for the truth to be known: Trade 1: Apr 9/12 bull call spread for a net debit of $91 Trade 2: Apr 9/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $96 Trade 3: Apr 8 long call .................................P/L........................................ Price........Trade 1.............Trade 2...........Trade 3 6.00...........(91).................(200)................(170) 7.00...........(91).................(103)................(170) 8.00...........(91)....................(5).................(170) 9.00...........(91).....................96..................(70) 9.91.............0.00...................96..................20 10.00...........7.60...................96..................30 11.00.........108.00..................96.................130 12.00.........209.00..................96.................230 13.00.........209.00..................96.................330
NWN: Income oriented utility http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-aristocrats-that-look-ripe-for-the-pick.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NWN+Profile http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=nwn http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NWN&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=NWN http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NWN&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with NWN at 42.10 Sell June 40 put for $100. Yield = 100/3900 = 2.56% in 161 days or 5.8% annualized. (NWN pays a 4.4% dividend) Prob NWN > 40 = 67% The intent is to be put NWN, collect the dividend and sell calls. If not put we will sell puts again.
TGT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-target-breach-could-lasting-215453304.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=TGT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: with TGT at 62.62 Jul 70/72.5 bear call spread for a credit of $27 Yield = 27/223 = 12.1% in 189 days or 23.4% annualized Prob = 83.5% Expectation = .835(27) - .1(223) - .065(111) = 22.5 - 22.3 - 7.15 = -7 Price.....................Profit / Loss............% 55.00 .....................27.00 ...............12.10% 60.00 .....................27.00 ...............12.10% 65.00 .....................27.00 ...............12.10% 70.00 .....................27.00 ...............12.10% 70.27 .......................0.00 ................0.00% 72.50 .....................(223.00) .........-89.20% 75.00 .....................(223.00) .........-89.20% 80.00 .....................(223.00) .........-89.20% 85.00 .....................(223.00) .........-89.20%
CORN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/corn-etf-surges-surprise-harvest-230102950.html http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/78132/Buy-American-with-these-Three-Commodity-ETFs http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=corn Trade: With CORN at 31.16 May 31/32 bull call spread for a net debit of $45 Price................Profit / Loss.............. % 26.00 .................(45.00) ............-100.00% 29.00 .................(45.00) ............-100.00% 31.00 .................(45.00) ............-100.00% 31.45 ....................0.00 ..................0.00% 32.00 ...................55.00 ...............122.22% 33.00 ...................55.00 ...............122.22% 34.00 ...................55.00 ...............122.22%
RYN: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-rayonier-ryn-060025566.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-stocks-in-the-red-inflation-falls-to-boe-target-2014-01-14 http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/06/rayonier-goes-timberrrrrr.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=RYN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RYN+Key+Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ryn Trade: With RYN at 41.53 Feb 40/35 bear put spread for a net debit of $60 Price.............Profit / Loss............ROI % 26.25.............. 440.00 .............733.33% 31.18 ..............440.00 .............733.33% 35.00 ..............440.00 .............733.33% 36.36 ..............304.10............. 506.83% 39.40 ..................0.00 ................0.00% 40.00 ...............(60.00) ..........-100.00% 41.54 ...............(60.00) ..........-100.00% 46.73 ...............(60.00) ..........-100.00% 51.91 ...............(60.00) ..........-100.00% BTW: America is no more: http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/bourbon-american-foreign-ties-21523151 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Overholt http://theoldswhiskeys.com/
CELG: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/celgene-provides-rosy-long-term-160005934.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/celgene-raises-sales-eps-forecasts-173426271.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/celgene-cuts-4q-2013-adj-192450371.html http://www.celgene.com/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CELG+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=celg http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=CELG&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CELG+Basic+Chart Trade: With CELG at 166.03 Jan '15 100/95 bull put spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 367 days or 11% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(50) - .07(450) - .02(225) = 45.5 - 31.5 - 5.0 = 9.0 Price......................Profit / Loss................ROM % 90.00 .....................(450.00) ..................-90.00% 95.00 .....................(450.00) ..................-90.00% 97.41 .....................(209.40) ..................-41.88% 99.50 ..........................0.00 ......................0.00% 100.00 .......................50.00 ....................11.10% 124.94 .......................50.00 ....................11.10% 152.47 .......................50.00 ....................11.10% 180.00 .......................50.00 ....................11.10% 207.54 .......................50.00 ....................11.10%
AA: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101334401?__...hoo&doc=101334401%7cWhat+the+F-150+tells+us+a http://www.cnbc.com/id/101327719 http://www.thestreet.com/story/12237892/1/why-alcoa-aa-is-gaining-today.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AA+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AA+Basic+Chart&t=2y With AA at 10.32: Trade 1: Jan '15 10/12 Bull call spread for a net debit of $69 Trade 2 Jan '15 10/5 Bull Put Spread for a net credit of $102 ...............Trade 1....................................Trade 2................. Price........Profit / Loss............%............Profit / Loss............% 7.50 ...........(69.00) ...........-100%...........(144)............(36)% 9.00 ...........(69.00) ...........-100% ..........0.00.................0% 10.00 .........(69.00) ...........-100% ...........102................26% 10.45 .........(23.50) .............-34%............102................26% 10.69 ...........0.00 ..................0%............102................26% 12.00 ........131.00 ...............190%...........102................26% 13.50 ........131.00 ...............190%...........102................26% 15.00 ........131.00 ...............190%...........102................26%
ACN: http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/...ands-of-a-new-federal-contractor.html/?ref=YF http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ACN+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=acn http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=ACN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=ACN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With ACN at 81.95 Aug 70/65 bull put spread for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/445 = 12.4% in 213 days or 21% annualized Prob = 88% Expectation = .88(55) - .04(445) - .08(222) = 48.4 - 17.8 - 17.7 = 12.9 Price..............Profit / Loss................ROM % 48.75............. (445.00) ................-89.00% 59.05............. (445.00) ................-89.00% 65.00 .............(445.00) ................-89.00% 69.45 .................0.00 .....................0.00% 69.90 ................45.00 ....................9.00% 70.00 ................55.00 ...................12.40% 80.75 ................55.00 ...................12.40% 91.59 ................55.00 ...................12.40% 100.00 ..............55.00 ...................12.40%
SSI: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-stage-stores-ssi-060023720.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stage-stores-reports-sales-nine-110000060.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SSI&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With SSI at 19.62 APR 22.50/17.50 bear put spread for a net debit of $330 Price................Profit / Loss...........ROI % 13.00................ 170.00.............. 51.52% 16.00................ 170.00.............. 51.52% 17.50................ 170.00.............. 51.52% 19.00.................. 16.60............... 5.03% 19.20.................... 0.00............... 0.00% 20.00..................(85.00).............-25.00% 22.50............... (330.00)........... -100.00% 25.09............... (330.00)........... -100.00% 28.13............... (330.00)........... -100.00%
INTC: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-profit-rises-on-modest-sales-growth-2014-01-16 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amex-intel-to-report-earnings-after-hours-2014-01-16?siteid=yhoof2 http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/119936/intel-beats-revs-misses-eps-guides-flat http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-fourth-quarter-revenue-exceeds-210904920.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INTC&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With INTC at 26.54 Jul 30/33 bear call spread for a net credit of $26 Yield = 26/274 = 9.5% in 183 days or 18.9% annualized Price..................Profit / Loss.............ROI % 20.00.................. 26.00 ...................9.50% 25.00.................. 26.00 ...................9.50% 28.00.................. 26.00 ...................9.50% 30.00.................. 26.00 ...................9.50% 30.26.................... 0.00 ...................0.00% 32.63................. (236.60) .............-78.87% 33.00................. (274.00) ..............-91.33% 36.94................. (274.00) ..............-91.33% 41.25................. (274.00) ..............-91.33%