-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- so do i...but it sounds very OBAMAish cheers john
Have gold and silver peaked?? SLV: http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...up-hedgies-sell-gold-silver/?mod=yahoobarrons http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SLV&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Bear call spread: IF I think SLV has peaked: Sell the Jan '12 SLV 50 call and buy the Jan '12 SLV 52 call for a net credit of $20 Yield = 20/180 = 11% in 122 days or 33% annualized Prob and expectation are meaningless with Hype and momentum driven entities like SLV... but Prob of SLV going above 50 is listed at 12.5% for whatever that's worth. For GLD which scares me a lot more than SLV: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=GLD Sell the Jan '12 195 call and buy the Jan '12 197call for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/175 = 14.2% in 122 days or 43% annualized Prob > 195 = 24.8%
CL: Discussed previously. A recession resistant stock: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=CL&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&c=^DJI Trade: Sell the Jan '12 75 put and buy the Jan'12 72.50 put for a net credit of $22 Yield = 22/228 = 9.6% in 122 days or 28.9% annualized. Prob = 91.7% Expectation = .917(22) - .04(228) -.04(114) = 20.2 - 9.1 - 4.6 = 6.5 positive expectation
Nice work Dan, your insight and thoughts are very unique and meaningful. After being burned on shorting puts on momentum stocks (NFLX), I think it's time to take a more conservative approach to trading options. Yeah, it sure is fun watching your options triple and quadruple but there simply is so much risk and its hard to be profitable in the long run. Keep up the good work!
TSM: This is a speculative rather than conservative trade http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/20/apple-moves-to-taiwan.aspx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TSM&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://moneycentral.msn.com/investo...ment=10YearSummary&symbol=US:TSM&stmtView=Qtr http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSM+Key+Statistics With TSM at 12.18 buy the Jan '12 12.50 call and sell the Jan '12 15 call for a net debit of $80 Price.............P/L..........% 12................(80).....(100%) 13................(30).....(62%) 14.................70.........87% 15................170......212%
SPY: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Market-Recap-China-Falters-wscheats-1218429435.html?x=0&.v=1 http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=154210 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=SPY&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Bear call spread: Sell the March 137 call and buy the March 140 call for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/260 = 15.4% in 176 days or 31.9% annualized Prob = 82.7% Expectation = .827(40) - .086(260) -.087(130)= 33.1 - 22.4 -11.3 = - 0.6 or essentially zero. i.e. as one would expect SPY options prices are pretty precisely calculated to give a net expectation of zero.
NLY: NLY is on my list of recession resistant stocks for the following reasons: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=NLY&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&c=^DJI http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NLY+Key+Statistics http://moneycentral.msn.com/investo...ment=10YearSummary&symbol=US:NLY&stmtView=Qtr The loss in 2005 puts it low on my ranking NLY currently has a dividend of 14% and has a beta of only .21 . I have traded NLY options in the past.
USO: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Market-Recap-China-Falters-wscheats-1218429435.html?x=0&.v=1 http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=154210 http://www.minyanville.com/business...07?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...rgues-for-higher-oil-prices/?partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=USO Trade: Sell the March 45 call and buy the March 50 call for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 176 days or 13.2% annualized. Prob = 91.4% Expectation = .914(30) - .04(470)- .04(235)= 27.4 - 18.8 - 9.4 = 0 This USO trade is currently offered at 24 which would not give a positive expectation. We need 30 to get a zero expectation. I will bid for 30 and see if market volatility and spreads will give me the trade.
HNZ: http://www.forbes.com/2011/09/22/analyst-moves-hnz-intc-marketnewsvideo.html?partner=yahootix http://seekingalpha.com/article/294518-5-stocks-going-ex-dividend-this-week?source=yahoo http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...ltz-sells-41-of-heinz-stake/?mod=yahoobarrons http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HNZ+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HNZ&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Sell the March '12 40 put and buy the March '12 35 put for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 176 days or 18% annualized Prob = 88.3% Expectation = .883(40) - .02(460) - .1(230) = 35.2 - 9.2 - 23 = 3