CPB: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-still-underperform-191004379.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=CPB&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: Jan '15 50/55 bear call spread for net credit of $80 Yield = 80/420 = 19% in 381 days or 18.2% annualized Prob = 74% Expectation = .74(80) - .16(429) - .1(214) = 59.2 - 68.6 - 21.4 = -31 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Soup_Company
RHT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/red-hat-strong-buy-180003644.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RHT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With RHT at 56.07 Jan '15 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 381 days or 7.2% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(35) - .01(465) - .03(232) = 33.6 - 4.65 - 6.96 = 22 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Hat
Heading south on a jet plane in the AM. This cold is tooo much to take: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf5UfOuvQHQ Just remember in the winter, far beneath the bitter snows lies the seed that with the sun's love in the spring becomes the rose
Back down south now... safe from the North's bitter snow. Changed planes in Charlotte... what a nightmare that place is. PAY: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-verifone-systems-pay-055015921.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PAY+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=pay http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PAY+Basic+Chart&t=2y Trade: With PAY at 25.79 Jan '15 35/40 bear call spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 378 days or 9.5% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(45) - .05(455) - .08(228) = 39.2 - 22.7 - 18.2 = -2 Price.........Profit / Loss..........% 20.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50% 25.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50% 30.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50% 35.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50% 35.45 ..............0.00 ...........0.00% 37.61 .........(216.30) ........-43.26% 40.00 .........(455.00) ........-91.00% 45.00 .........(455.00) ........-91.00% 50.00 .........(455.00)........ -91.00%
MUB: http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...-look-at-muni-cefs/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=624759 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-municipal-bond-etfs-2014-165934341.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MUB+Basic+Chart&t=5y Trade: Aug 95/98 bull put spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/255 = 17.6% in 225 days or 29% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(45) - .02(255) - .06(127) = 41.4 - 5.1 - 7.6 = 28.7 Price.................Profit / Loss..................% 71.25 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00% 82.54 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00% 94.43 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00% 95.00 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00% 97.55 ......................0.00 ..................0.00% 98.00 .....................45.00 ................17.60% 106.32 ...................45.00 ............... 17.60% 118.21 ...................45.00 ................17.60% 130.10 ...................45.00 ................17.60%
RYL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryland-slips-strong-sell-214503338.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RYL+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=RYL http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=RYL&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With RYL at 42.84 jan '15 60/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 377 days or 10.8% annualized Prob = 85% Expectation = .85(50) - .1(450) - .05(225) = 42.5 - 45.0 - 11.25 = -13.75 Price...............Profit / Loss........ % 35.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1% 40.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1% 50.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1% 60.00 .................50.00.......... 11.1% 60.50 ...................0.00........... 0.00% 61.40 .................(90.40).......-18.08% 65.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00% 70.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00% 85.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00% http://www.wcnc.com/mobile-content/...er-causes-major-airport-delays-238547601.html
SPY: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/closi...inues-as-service-economy-disappoints-cm316165 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy two point 10 day trade: With SPY at 182.36 Jan '14 182/180 bear put spread for net debit of $61 Price..................Profit / Loss.......... % 165.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87% 170.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87% 175.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87% 180.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87% 181.39.................... 0.00 ..............0.00% 182.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00% 185.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00% 190.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00% 195.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
SNDK: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandisk-upgraded-strong-buy-143008440.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SNDK+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=sndk http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SNDK&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SNDK&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 373 days or 5.15% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(25) - .03(475) - .04(238) = 23.25 - 14.25 - 9.52 = -.52 With SNDK having run up 50% in the past year, my fear of a market pull back, a somewhat heavy valuation, a fairly light return of 5% and the expectation calculation indicating pretty fairly priced options this is not a buy for me regardless of what Zack's thinks. I pass.
PM: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/philip-morris-slips-to-strong-sell-analyst-blog-cm316481 http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-the-dollar-did-it/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PM&ql=1 http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=PM http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PM http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=PM&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With PM at 84.68 Jan '15 95/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 374 days or 13.3% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(60) - .13(440) - .09(220) = 46.8 - 57.2 - 19.8 = -30.2 Price....................Profit / Loss..............% 65.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30% 70.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30% 80.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30% 95.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30% 95.60........................ 0.00............... 0.00% 100.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00% 110.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00% 115.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00% 125.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
JOSB: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jos-bank-mens-wearhouse-war-151004385.html http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/06/next-steps-for-jos-a-bankmens-wearhouse/?mod=yahoo_hs http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JOSB http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JOSB+Basic+Chart Trade: With JOSB at 55.70 Jul '14 45/40 bull put spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 191 days or 12.2% annualized Prob = ??? Expectation = ??? Price................Profit / Loss..............% 30.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00% 35.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00% 40.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00% 44.70 ....................0.00 .................0.00% 45.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40% 50.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40% 55.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40% 60.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40% 65.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%