Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. #581     Dec 31, 2013
  2. #582     Dec 31, 2013
  3. Heading south on a jet plane in the AM. This cold is tooo much to take:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf5UfOuvQHQ

    Just remember in the winter, far beneath the bitter snows
    lies the seed
    that with the sun's love
    in the spring
    becomes the rose
     
    #583     Jan 1, 2014
  4. Back down south now... safe from the North's bitter snow. Changed planes in Charlotte... what a nightmare that place is.

    PAY:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-verifone-systems-pay-055015921.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PAY+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=pay

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PAY+Basic+Chart&t=2y

    Trade:
    With PAY at 25.79
    Jan '15 35/40 bear call spread for a net credit of $45
    Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 378 days or 9.5% annualized
    Prob = 87%
    Expectation = .87(45) - .05(455) - .08(228) = 39.2 - 22.7 - 18.2 = -2


    Price.........Profit / Loss..........%
    20.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50%
    25.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50%
    30.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50%
    35.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50%
    35.45 ..............0.00 ...........0.00%
    37.61 .........(216.30) ........-43.26%
    40.00 .........(455.00) ........-91.00%
    45.00 .........(455.00) ........-91.00%
    50.00 .........(455.00)........ -91.00%
     
    #584     Jan 3, 2014
  5. MUB:

    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...-look-at-muni-cefs/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=624759

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-municipal-bond-etfs-2014-165934341.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MUB+Basic+Chart&t=5y

    Trade:

    Aug 95/98 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
    Yield = 45/255 = 17.6% in 225 days or 29% annualized
    Prob = 92%
    Expectation = .92(45) - .02(255) - .06(127) = 41.4 - 5.1 - 7.6 = 28.7


    Price.................Profit / Loss..................%
    71.25 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00%
    82.54 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00%
    94.43 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00%
    95.00 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00%
    97.55 ......................0.00 ..................0.00%
    98.00 .....................45.00 ................17.60%
    106.32 ...................45.00 ............... 17.60%
    118.21 ...................45.00 ................17.60%
    130.10 ...................45.00 ................17.60%
     
    #585     Jan 3, 2014
  6. RYL:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryland-slips-strong-sell-214503338.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RYL+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=RYL

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=RYL&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:
    With RYL at 42.84
    jan '15 60/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $50
    Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 377 days or 10.8% annualized
    Prob = 85%
    Expectation = .85(50) - .1(450) - .05(225) = 42.5 - 45.0 - 11.25 = -13.75


    Price...............Profit / Loss........ %
    35.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1%
    40.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1%
    50.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1%
    60.00 .................50.00.......... 11.1%
    60.50 ...................0.00........... 0.00%
    61.40 .................(90.40).......-18.08%
    65.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00%
    70.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00%
    85.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00%

    http://www.wcnc.com/mobile-content/...er-causes-major-airport-delays-238547601.html
     
    #586     Jan 4, 2014
  7. SPY:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/closi...inues-as-service-economy-disappoints-cm316165

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

    two point 10 day trade:

    With SPY at 182.36

    Jan '14 182/180 bear put spread for net debit of $61


    Price..................Profit / Loss.......... %
    165.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87%
    170.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87%
    175.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87%
    180.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87%
    181.39.................... 0.00 ..............0.00%
    182.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
    185.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
    190.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
    195.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
     
    #587     Jan 7, 2014
  8. SNDK:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandisk-upgraded-strong-buy-143008440.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SNDK+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=sndk

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SNDK&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SNDK&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:

    Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
    Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 373 days or 5.15% annualized
    Prob = 93%
    Expectation = .93(25) - .03(475) - .04(238) = 23.25 - 14.25 - 9.52 = -.52

    With SNDK having run up 50% in the past year, my fear of a market pull back, a somewhat heavy valuation, a fairly light return of 5% and the expectation calculation indicating pretty fairly priced options this is not a buy for me regardless of what Zack's thinks.

    I pass.
     
    #588     Jan 7, 2014
  9. PM:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/philip-morris-slips-to-strong-sell-analyst-blog-cm316481

    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-the-dollar-did-it/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PM&ql=1

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=PM

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PM

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=PM&ql=1

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    With PM at 84.68
    Jan '15 95/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $60
    Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 374 days or 13.3% annualized
    Prob = 78%
    Expectation = .78(60) - .13(440) - .09(220) = 46.8 - 57.2 - 19.8 = -30.2

    Price....................Profit / Loss..............%
    65.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30%
    70.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30%
    80.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30%
    95.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30%
    95.60........................ 0.00............... 0.00%
    100.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
    110.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
    115.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
    125.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
     
    #589     Jan 7, 2014
  10. JOSB:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jos-bank-mens-wearhouse-war-151004385.html

    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/06/next-steps-for-jos-a-bankmens-wearhouse/?mod=yahoo_hs

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JOSB

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JOSB+Basic+Chart

    Trade:
    With JOSB at 55.70
    Jul '14 45/40 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
    Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 191 days or 12.2% annualized
    Prob = ???
    Expectation = ???


    Price................Profit / Loss..............%
    30.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00%
    35.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00%
    40.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00%
    44.70 ....................0.00 .................0.00%
    45.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
    50.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
    55.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
    60.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
    65.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
     
    #590     Jan 8, 2014