I like this old nemesis thread, even if he did not answer one of my questions. I predicted that many those who looked down at it would disappear over time, and he would still be here. I found his approach original and exploit some subtleties in spreads, and implements "slow beats the hare". It looks boring, which would attract less competition from flashy guys who like to say in loud voice things such as "I made 70% in my last trade", and that sort of annoying talk. The young man in old coat has beaten them.
What do you want him to do with people do not respect others? His strategy not to respond or to put people on ignore seems to have worked, and is efficient. I know he is justified, because others insult me and I do not even respond to them, but they continue ( for years.) to insult and say things they know are untrue.
ZINC: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-horsehead-holding-zinc-055020015.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ZINC&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=zinc Trade: With ZINC at 14.09 Jun '14 15/12.5 bear put spread for a net debit of $125 Price...............Profit / Loss........... % 10.00................ 125.00............. 100.00% 11.00................ 125.00............. 100.00% 12.50................ 125.00............. 100.00% 13.07.................. 68.20.............. 54.56% 13.75 ....................0.00................ 0.00% 14.96 .................(121.20).......... -96.96% 15.00 .................(125.00)......... -100.00% 16.86 .................(125.00)......... -100.00% 18.75 .................(125.00)......... -100.00%
XEL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8zuGafSyjY&feature=youtu.be http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=XEL+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=xel http://tickerreport.com/banking-fin...-inc-declares-quarterly-dividend-of-0-28-xel/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XEL&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With XEL at 27.74 June '14 25/20 Bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 188 days or 14.6% annualized Price....................Profit / Loss.............% 15.00 ...................(465.00) .............-93.00% 18.78 ...................(465.00) .............-93.00% 20.00 ...................(465.00) .............-93.00% 22.75 ...................(189.90) .............-37.98% 24.65 ........................0.00 ................0.00% 25.00 ....................35.00 ..................7.50% 30.00 ....................35.00 ..................7.50% 35.00 ....................35.00 ..................7.50% XEL pays a 4% dividend
SLV: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitcone...nd-for-silver-coins-in-2013/?partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SLV&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=gld,^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SLV&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With SLV at 19.15 Mar '14 18/20 bull call spread for a net debit of $107 Price..........................P/L................% 13.50 .....................(107.00) .....-100.00% 15.50 .....................(107.00) .....-100.00% 18.00 .....................(107.00) .....-100.00% 19.07 ..........................0.00 .........0.00% 20.00 .........................93.00 ........86.92% 22.50 .........................93.00 ........86.92% 25.00 .........................93.00 ........86.92%
HPQ: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...te-it-sluggishness/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hp-raises-ceo-whitmans-salary-232116880.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HPQ+Key+Statistics http://www8.hp.com/h20621/video-gal...001/hp-elitebook-revolve-810-tablet-pc/video/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=HPQ&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=HPQ&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With HPQ at 27.45 Jan '15 17/12 bull put spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 395 days or 9.1% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(45) - .01(455) - .07(228) = 41.4 - 4.6 - 31.8 = 5 Price.............Profit / Loss............. % 9.00 ................(459.00) .........-91.80% 12.00 ..............(459.00) .........-91.80% 13.86 ..............(273.20) .........-54.64% 16.59 ...................0.00 .............0.00% 17.00 .................45.00 ..............9.9% 19.00 .................45.00 ..............9.9% 25.00 .................45.00 ..............9.9% 30.00 .................45.00 ..............9.9% 35.00 .................45.00 ..............9.9%
AAPL: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aapl http://www.forbes.com/sites/connieg...it-until-february-or-longer/?partner=yahootix http://9to5mac.com/2013/12/18/aapl-...the-mystery-of-the-missing-china-mobile-deal/ http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...worry-about-jabils-earnings.aspx#.UrP3o2Io6ig http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=AAPL&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=AAPL&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Apr '14 400/390 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/965 = 3.6% in 119 days or 11.1% annualized Prob = 98% Expectation = .98(35) - .01(965) - .01(482) = 34.3 - 9.65 - 4.82 = 19.7 I will exit on a negative expectation
Flashmob: I am back in PA for the holidays and happened on a flashmob performance while out shopping: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-bethlehem-christmas-flash-mob-20131223,0,6882451.story It's not really a surprise since Bethlehem PA prides itself on being the Christmas City. Lots of similar if smaller scale things happen here all the time. The other afternoon I was in the check out line at K-mart and a woman was checking out toys for her brood when the man in front of me insisted on paying for her purchases with his own credit card. Here's a slightly more organized performance: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUZEtVbJT5c All in all the flashmob didn't do badly. God bless us every one...... ............................Tiny Tim
HLF: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...ire-ackman-digs-into-herbalife-one-more-time/ http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9952b058-6c1e-11e3-a216-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2oZ7X7ev1 http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013...-to-reveal-on-herbalife-in-2014/?mod=yahoo_hs http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...yet-begun-to-fight/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...ments-mean-good-times-for-activist-investors/ http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...d-to-know-about-herbalifes-upcoming-earnings/ http://www.cnbc.com/id/101279213?__...hoo&doc=101279213%7cHerbalife+plans+to+get+ba http://news.investors.com/121813-68...-strong.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=HLF http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HLF+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HLF&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '15 30/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 386 days or 10.5% annualized Prob = 95% Expectation = .95(50) - .02(450) - .03(225) = 47.5 - 9.0 - 6.8 = 31.7
ED: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/time-buy-utility-stocks-124000050.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ED+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ED&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ED&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '15 50/47.50 bull put spread for $70 Yield = 70/180 = 38.9% in 380 days or 37.4% annualized Prob = 76% Expectation = .76(70) - .14(180) - .1(90) = 53.2 - 25.2 - 9 = 19