Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. ETR:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/184...e-buy-for-utility-income-seekers?source=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ETR+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ETR

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=etr

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ETR&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    ETR pays a 5.3% dividend
    Trade:
    With ETR at 62.08
    June '14 57.50/55 bull put spread for a net credit of $60
    Yield = 60/190 = 31.6% in 198 days or 58.2% annualized
    Prob = 71%
    Expectation = .71(60) - .19(190) - .1(95) = 42.6 - 36.1 - 9.5 = -3


    Price........Profit / Loss........%
    45.00 .......(190.00) .......-76.00%
    50.00 .......(190.00) .......-76.00%
    55.00 .......(190.00) .......-76.00%
    55.56 .......(134.00) .......-53.60%
    56.90 ..........0.00 ............0.00%
    57.50 ........60.00 ...........31.00%
    60.00 ........60.00 ...........31.00%
    65.00 ........60.00 ...........31.00%
    70.00 ........60.00 ...........31.00%
     
    #561     Dec 5, 2013
  2. Rechecking the 'Hunger Games stocks':

    LGF:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LGF

    IMAX:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IMAX

    RGC:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGC

    Of the three stocks only RGC looks like it will make a profit.

    The Christmas season into new years is a good time for movie theaters and is not dependent solely on the Hunger Games movie. So I think RGC will make a profit on that bull call spread.

    The other two already had the success of the movie built into the stock and are losing money from when that article first recommended them.

    BTW that article touting the Hunger Games stocks has mysteriously disappeared.

    I wonder why?
     
    #562     Dec 6, 2013
  3. PEP:

    "PepsiCo broke down below support, by closing below 84. This completes a short-term top on its chart. In addition, there is a sell signal from the put-call ratio. "

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=PEP&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000223807&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PEP+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=PEP+Competitors

    With PEP at 83.15

    Trade #1:

    Buy Jan '14 85 put for a net debit of $266

    TRADE #2

    Buy Jan '14 85 put and sell Jan '14 80 put for a net debit of $202

    ..............................P/L...................
    Price......Trade #1...............Trade #2
    70..........$1224.....................$298
    75...........$724......................$298
    80...........$224......................$298
    82.34.......$0.0.......................$55
    82.98.......($42).....................$0.0
    83.15.......($85)....................($37)
    85..........($266)...................($202)
    90..........($266)...................($202)
    95..........($266)...................($202)
    100........($266)...................($202)
     
    #563     Dec 7, 2013
  4. PEP C'td:

    Trade #3

    Sell Jan '14 82.50 call and buy Jan '14 85 call for a net credit of $113

    ..............................................P/L............................
    Price......Trade #1...............Trade #2..........Trade #3
    70..........$1224.....................$298...............$113
    75...........$724......................$298...............$113
    80...........$224......................$298...............$113
    82.34.......$0.0.......................$55................$113
    82.98.......($42).....................$0.0................$68
    83.15.......($85)....................($37)...............$12
    85..........($266)...................($202).............($137)
    90..........($266)...................($202).............($137)
    95..........($266)...................($202).............($137)
    100........($266)...................($202).............($137)
     
    #564     Dec 7, 2013
  5. DG:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-general-earnings-beat-estimate-184727244.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-general-upgraded-conviction-buy-103237100.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DG+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DG+Basic+Chart

    Trade:
    With DG at 60.2
    May 50/45 bull put spread for a net credit of $60
    Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 160 days or 31.1% annualized
    Prob = 86%
    Expectation = .86(60) - .04(440) - .10(220) = 51.6 - 17.6 - 22.0 = 12


    Price...............Profit / Loss...........%
    35.00.............. (440.00)......... -88.00%
    40.00.............. (440.00)......... -88.00%
    45.00.............. (440.00)......... -88.00%
    49.40.................. 0.00.............. 0.00%
    50.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
    55.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
    60.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
    65.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
    70.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
     
    #565     Dec 7, 2013
  6. #566     Dec 9, 2013
  7. INTC:

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...ays-morgan-stanley/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/09/where-is-intel-going-in-2014.aspx

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12142759/1/if-only-intel-didnt-date-losers.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=INTC+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INTC&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    with INTC at 24.93
    Jan '15 30/35 bear call spread for a net credit of $43
    Yield = 43/457 = 9.4% in 403 days or 8.5% annualized
    (INTC pays 3.9% ann dividend)
    Prob = 83%
    Expectation = .83(43) - .04(457) - .13(228) = 35.7 - 18.3 - 29.8 = -12.4


    Price..............Profit / Loss........%
    22.50 ...............43.00 ..........8.50%
    25.00 ...............43.00 ..........8.50%
    27.50 ...............43.00 ..........8.50%
    30.00 ...............43.00 ..........8.50%
    30.43 .................0.00 ..........0.00%
    33.63 .............(319.80) ......-63.96%
    35.00 .............(457.00) ......-91.40%
    37.50 .............(457.00) ......-91.40%
    40.00 .............(457.00) ......-91.40%
     
    #567     Dec 9, 2013
  8. TQNT:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiem...rgets-triquint-for-takeover/?partner=yahootix

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/starboard-plans-proxy-fight-triquint-184341897.html

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/making-a-big-play-for-2014-right-now-2013-12-09?pagenumber=1

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=TQNT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:

    Jan '15 7/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $50
    Yield = 50/150 = 33% in 402 days or 30.3% annualized
    Prob = 60%
    Expectation = .6(50) - .12(150) - .28(75) = 30 - 18 - 21 = -9


    Price..........Profit / Loss...............%
    3.75 ............(150.00) ............-75.00%
    5.00 ............(150.00) ............-75.00%
    6.26 ..............(24.40) ............-12.20%
    6.50 ..................0.00 ...............0.00%
    7.00 .................50.00 .............33.00%
    7.50 .................50.00 .............33.00%
    8.00 .................50.00 .............33.00%
    10.00 ...............50.00 .............33.00%
     
    #568     Dec 10, 2013
  9. MRO:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101265899?__...headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=101265899|Cramer uncovers undervalue

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-sea-assets-increases-buyback.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/marathon-oil-beats-q3-earnings-165002054.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MRO+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRO&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRO&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    with MRO at 35.69
    Apr '14 25/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $29
    Yield = 29/471 = 6.16% in 128 days or 17.6% annualized
    Prob = 89%
    Expectation = .89(29) - .01(471) - .1(235) = 25.8 - 4.7 - 23.5 = -2


    Price..........Profit / Loss.......... %
    15.00 ...........(471.00) .......-94.20%
    20.00 ...........(471.00) .......-94.20%
    25.00 ...........(471.00) .......-94.20%
    28.94 .............(77.20) .......-15.44%
    29.71 ................0.00 ...........0.00%
    30.00 ...............29.00 ..........6.16%
    35.00 ...............29.00 ..........6.16%
    40.00 ...............29.00 ..........6.16%
    45.00 ...............29.00 ..........6.16%
     
    #569     Dec 12, 2013
  10. #570     Dec 12, 2013