RGC: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/portf...;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hunger_Games:_Catching_Fire http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ticke...-192014333.html;_ylt=A2KJ3CfxPpJSbiMA2beTmYlQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmVi-GPUpy8 http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/RGC http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rgc Trade: With RGC at 19.62 Jan '14 17.50/20 bull call spread for a net debit of $180 Price..............Profit / Loss........... % 13.00.............. (180.00) .........-100.00% 15.00.............. (180.00) .........-100.00% 17.50.............. (180.00) .........-100.00% 17.80.............. (149.70) ...........-83.17% 19.30................... 0.00 ...............0.00% 20.00.................. 70.00 .............38.89% 22.00.................. 70.00 .............38.89% 22.50.................. 70.00 .............38.89% 25.00.................. 70.00 .............38.89%
tj, I think oldeneme put us all on ignore after a battle over the meaning of "conservative", so you might not get a reply...just sayin'..
So how are those Hunger Games stocks doing after the open?? http://news.investors.com/112513-68...timates.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LGF Not so hot with LGF IMAX is holding it's own but looks 'toppy': http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IMAX Our choice RGC is doing OK and heading for our P/L goal: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGC A lot of time left until expiration. We'll just wait and see.
NTE: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1212...umbled-on-tuesday.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nam-tai-electronics-inc-q3-110000253.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/1204...-stocks-top-4-companies-tcap-sbr-nte-vgr.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NTE+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=nte http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NTE http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NTE&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade With NTE at 7.38 Jun 5/250 bull put spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/220 = 13.6% in 205 days or 24.3% annualized Prob = 77% Expectation = .77(30) - .01(220) - .22(110) =23.1 -2.2 - 24.2 = -3.3 Price............P/L...............% 2.00 ........(220.00) .....-88.00% 2.50 ........(220.00) .....-88.00% 3.29 ........(141.40) .....-56.56% 4.70 ............0.00 ..........0.00% 4.77 ............7.00 ..........2.80% 5.00 ..........30.00 .........12.00% 6.00 ..........30.00 .........12.00% 7.00 ..........30.00 .........12.00% 9.00 ..........30.00 .........12.00% Closing Bid/Ask on the spread is .15/.40 At the bid of $15 the expectation is very negative and you need at least $30 to get a barely acceptable expectation. Thus the market makers are not giving away anything on this spread but you can put in your bid at $30 in competition with the MM $40 and wait for another retail trader to take you up on the trade. It costs nothing to try.
UUP: http://seekingalpha.com/article/185...-to-stop-stockpiling-u-s-dollars?source=yahoo http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/china-is-quitting-the-us-dollar http://seekingalpha.com/article/186...na-a-game-changer-for-u-s-dollar?source=yahoo http://www.forbes.com/sites/deanpop...-talks-and-the-dollar-drops/?partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UUP+Basic+Chart&t=2y Trade: With UUP at 21.70 Jan '15 23/25 bear call spread for a net credit of $22 Yield = 22/178 = 12.4% in 410 days or 11% annualized Prob = 75% Expectation = .75(22) - .035(178) - .215(89) = 16.5 - 6.23 - 19.14 = -9 Price..........Profit / Loss...........% 16.00 ...........22.00 ...........11.00% 19.00 ...........22.00 ...........11.00% 22.00 ...........22.00 ...........11.00% 23.00 ...........22.00 ...........11.00% 23.22 .............0.00 ............0.00% 25.00 .........(178.00) ........-89.00% 26.00 .........(178.00) ........-89.00% 28.00 .........(178.00) ........-89.00% 30.00 .........(178.00) ....... -89.00%
SEM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/select-medical-downgraded-strong-sell-191002052.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SEM+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=SEM http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SEM&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with SEM at 8.50 Trade #1 Jun '14 10/12.50 bear call spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/220 = 13.6% in 200 days or 24.9% annualized Prob = 75% Expectation = .75(30) - .08(220) - .17(110) = 22.5 - 17.6 - 18.7 = -14 Trade #2 Jun '14 7.50/5.00 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/210 = 19% in 200 days or 35% annualized Prob = 66% Expectation = .66(40) - .05(215) - .29(108) = 26.4 - 10.75 - 31.3 = -16 No preference
FCG: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-etf-warms-cool-222206453.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=FCG+Holdings http://www.almanac.com/content/almanacs-long-range-weather-forecast-us-and-canada http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FCG&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With FCG at 19.61 Jan '14 15/20 bull call spread for a net debit of $428 Price........Profit / Loss.......... %..... 10.00 ........(428.00) .......-100.00% 13.00 ........(428.00) .......-100.00% 15.00 ........(428.00) .......-100.00% 16.67 ........(261.30) .......-61.05% 19.28 ...........0.00 ...........0.00% 19.44 ...........16.40 .........3.83% 20.00 ...........72.00 ........16.82% 22.00 ...........72.00 ........16.82% 25.00 ...........72.00 ........16.82% Potential Yield = 72/428 = 16.8% in 43 days or 143% annualized
YUM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yum-falls-muted-outlook-204503551.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=YUM+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=YUM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=YUM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With YUM at 75.66 Jan '15 85/90 Bear call spread for a net credit of $115 Yield = 115/385 = 29.9% in 407 days or 26.8% annualized Prob = 71% Expectation = .71(115) - .21(385) - .08(192) = 81.65 - 80.85 - 15 = -14 Price.............Profit / Loss...........% 70.00 ..............115.00 ..........23.00% 75.00 ..............115.00 ..........23.00% 80.00 ..............115.00 ..........23.00% 85.00 ..............115.00 ..........23.00% 86.15 ..................0.00 ...........0.00% 89.97 ................(382.30) .....-76.46% 90.00 ................(385.00) .....-77.00% 95.00 ................(385.00) .....-77.00% 100.00 ..............(385.00) .....-77.00%
Why not sell the 55/60 put spread as well? You're getting 0.90 at the bid and three handles in vol over the ATM.
"Why not sell the 55/60 put spread as well? You're getting 0.90 at the bid and three handles in vol over the ATM." I consider YUM as over bought (because of its high PE relative to competitors) and the market in general as over extended. Thus I have a bearish bias toward YUM. This is a very long term trade and I might consider selling the bull put spread at some later date. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=YUM+Competitors