CPB: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-reports-lackluster-q1-results-184155088.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/1211...canned-on-tuesday.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kicking-campbell-hit-fresh-food-152444085.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= With CPB at 39.20: Trade #1: Jan 2015 50/45 Bear Call Spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 424 days or 8.5% annualized Trade #2: Jan 2015 40/35 Bear Put Spread for a net debit of $310 Yield = $190/ 310 = 61% in 424 days or 52.7% annualized Trade #3 Jan 2015 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $120 Yield = 120/380 = 31.6% in 424 days or 27.2% annualized .........................................P/L......................................... Price..............Trade #1..................Trade #2........Trade #3 30.....................$45.........................$190..............($380) 35.....................$45.........................$190..............$120 36.90.................$45..........................$0.0..............$120 40.....................$45.........................($310)............$120 45.....................$45.........................($310)............$120 45.45................$0.0.........................($310)............$120 50....................($455)......................($310)............$120 55....................($455)......................($310)............$120
CPB: Try it again: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-reports-lackluster-q1-results-184155088.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/1211...canned-on-tuesday.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kicking-campbell-hit-fresh-food-152444085.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB+Basic+Chart&t=5d http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= With CPB at 39.20 (close): Trade #1: Jan 2015 50/45 Bear Call Spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 424 days or 8.5% annualized Trade #2: Jan 2015 40/35 Bear Put Spread for a net debit of $255 Yield = $245/255 = 96% in 424 days or 82.7% annualized Trade #3 Jan 2015 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $115 Yield = 120/380 = 31.6% in 424 days or 27.2% annualized .........................................P/L......................................... Price..............Trade #1..................Trade #2........Trade #3....Prob> 30.....................$45.........................$245..............($385)......89% 33.85.................$45.........................$245...............$0.0.......74% 35.....................$45.........................$245..............$115........69% 37.45.................$45..........................$0.0..............$115.......57% 40.....................$45.........................($255)............$115.......54% 45.....................$45.........................($255)............$115.......23% 45.45................$0.0.........................($255)............$115.......22% 50....................($455)......................($255)............$115.......11% 55....................($455)......................($255)............$115........4% (optionsOracle tables were not updated...this data is from OptionsXpress)
CPB and Camden NJ: Campbell Soup is located in Camden NJ. Camden, across the Delaware river from Philadelphia, is the nation's most poignant example of urban decay, having been ranked #1 in violent crime per capita. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camden,_New_Jersey https://www.google.com/search?q=cam...=X&ei=9LGMUscNzc2RB_DggPgE&sqi=2&ved=0CDkQsAQ A number of years ago, working in Philadelphia, I became disillusioned with corporate culture and took a job as VP of Information Systems at....Camden County College deep inside Camden NJ. As part of my job I had to teach several classes in data processing. It was an eye opening experience. The daily walk from the college building to my car was always frightening and one never stayed late.
BJRI: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-bjs-restaurants-bjri-055026191.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bjs-misses-earnings-rev-estimates-154002455.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BJRI+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=BJRI&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BJRI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With BJRI at 28.16 Jan '14 30/25 bear put spread for a net debit of 2.25 Price.........................P/L 15.00 .................... $275.00 20.00 .....................$275.00 25.00 .....................$275.00 26.14 .....................$161.40 27.75 .........................$0.00 28.16 .......................(47.00) 29.92 .....................($217.40) 30.00 .....................($225.00) 35.00 .....................($225.00) 40.00 .....................($225.00)
PTM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-etfs-play-platinums-coming-202430720.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PTM&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With PTM at 15.59 May '14 14/18 bull call spread for a net debit of $180 Price.............P/L.....................% 10.50 ........($180.00)....... -100.00% 12.80 ........($180..00).......-100.00% 14.00 ........($180.00)....... -100.00% 15.23 ..........($57.30)......... -31.83% 15.80 ...........$0.00............... 0.00% 17.65 ........$185.20........... 102.89% 18.00 ........$220.00........... 122.22% 20.00 ........$220.00........... 122.22% 22.00 ........$220.00........... 122.22%
IBM: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1854751-ibm-cant-get-blood-out-of-a-stone?source=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IBM+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=IBM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=IBM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: With IBM at 184.13 Jan '15 215/220 bear call spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 420 days or 11.8% annualized Price.............P/L...........%..............Prob > 138.10....... 60.00...... 12.00% .........97% 164.37....... 60.00...... 12.00% .........78% 192.03....... 60.00...... 12.00% .........40% 215.00....... 60.00...... 12.00% .........15% 215.60........ 0.00......... 0.00% .........13% 219.69..... (408.60).... -81.72% ........12% 220.00..... (440.00).... -88.00% ........11% 230.00..... (440.00).... -88.00% ..........6% 240.00..... (440.00).... -88.00% ..........4%
SHLD: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sears-3q-loss-widens-sales-112240783.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SHLD+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=shld http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SHLD&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With SHLD at 61.34 Jan '15 75/80 bear call spread for a net credit of $110 Yield = 110/390 = 28% in 420 days or 24.5% annualized Prob = 73% Expectation = .73(110) - .22(390) - .05(195) = 80.3 - 85.8 - 9.75 = -15 Price..........Profit / Loss.......... % 45.00 ...........110.00 ........28.00% 55.00 ...........110.00 ........28.00% 65.00 ...........110.00 ........28.00% 75.00 ...........110.00 ........28.00% 76.10 ..............0.00 ..........0.00% 78.18 ...........(208.40) ....-41.68% 80.00 ...........(390.00) ....-78.00% 85.00 ...........(390.00) ....-78.00% 90.00........... (390.00) ....-78.00%
INTC: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-shares-drop-2014-forecast-201743746.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...ement-over-big-plans-2013-11-22?siteid=yhoof2 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=intc http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INTC+Basic+Chart&t=2y Trade: With INTC at 23.87 April '14 26/28 bear call spread for a net credit of $27 Yield = 27/173 = 15.6% in 147 days or 38.8% annualized Prob = 78% Price..........Profit / Loss............ % 17.90 ............27.00 .............15.60% 21.18 ............27.00 .............15.60% 24.64 ............27.00 .............15.60% 26.00 ............27.00 .............15.60% 26.27 ..............0.00 ...............0.00% 28.00 ...........(173.00) .........-86.50% 28.09 ...........(173.00) .........-86.50% 31.55 ...........(173.00) .........-86.50% 35.00 ...........(173.00) .........-86.50%
I am very impressed by your thread, your patience and the uniqueness of your method. If I could ask, what methods do you use to search for such spreads? How do you calculate the expected values and how do you get the probs? If you have an example that goes over the steps of the numbers it would help. For instance what is the .05(195) in: Expectation = .73(110) - .22(390) - .05(195). Thanks.