BTU: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obamas-climate-plan-takes-aim-202540276.html http://www.watchlistnews.com/2013/06/17/peabody-energy-stock-rating-reaffirmed-by-zacks-btu/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BTU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= With BTU at 15.03 Trade #1 Buy the Jan '14 15 put and sell the Jan '14 13 put for a net debit of $96 Price...................P/L 10.......................104 12.......................104 14.04................... 0.0 15.......................(96) 17.......................(96) 20.......................(96) Trade #2 Buy the Jan '14 15 call and sell the Jan '14 17 call for a net debit of $82 Price...................P/L 12......................(82) 15......................(82) 15.82..................0.0 16........................18 17.......................118 20.......................118 Trade #3 Sell the Jan '14 $10 put and buy the Jan '14 $7 put for a net credit of $35. Price.......................P/L 15...........................35 10...........................35 9.............................(65) 7............................(265) 5............................(265) A cogent argument can be made for all three trades.
CCL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-carnival-corp-ccl-045511662.html http://beta.fool.com/nmaithya/2013/...-is-a-sucker-r/39256/?source=eogyholnk0000001 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CCL+Key+Statistics http://www.nbcnews.com/video/rock-center/51377911#51377911 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CCL+Basic+Chart Trade: Oct 38/43 bear call spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 102 days or 39.8% annualized Prob = 80% Expectation = .8(50) - .03(450) - .17(225) = 40 - 13.5 - 38.25 = -12 (a credit of $55 would bring expectation to zero. This means that call options are a little underpriced... we are being paid a little low for the risk, consistent with a low vol environment. I will 'shop the spread' and see if the market will give us the better deal)
What do you think instead of a strategy like the one below, that the BEP down is the same but you have a greater gain if the price of the underlying stops more or less the values ​​of now?
BA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-dreamliner-catches-fire-londons-231342973.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...fter-technical-issue-2013-07-12?siteid=yhoof2 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-books-orders-67-more-190234303.html http://www.businessweek.com/article...-steady-when-tragedy-strikes?campaign_id=yhoo http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ba http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BA&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91L6p0AQvH8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=tBJIBtY5YQo&feature=endscreen Trade: Jan '14 75/70 bull put spread for a net credit of $25 Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 188 days or 10.2% annualized Prob = 97% Expectation = .97(25) - .01(475) .02(235) = 24.25 - 4.7 - 4.7 = 14.85 (this is an evolving situation and Monday prices may be more or less favorable)
TSLA: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/16/tesla-motors-3-numbers-to-watch.aspx http://www.cnbc.com/id/100890550?__...yahoo&doc=100890550|Tesla+shares+plunge+14+pe http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA Is it possible to have a 'Conservative Options Trade' on TSLA??? Trade: Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $75 Yield = 75/425 = 17.6% in 539 days or 12% annualized Prob = 72.2% Expectation = .72(75) - .23(425) - .05(213) = 54 - 97.7 - 10.6 = -54 (the expectation calculation is pure nonsense and simply reflects the extreme volatility of the TSLA stock since it announced its profitable quarter. This is now an event driven stock not a statistical distribution stock.) http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/08/autos/tesla-earnings/index.html http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoFVO31CbE0
MCD: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/mcdonalds-falls-short-warns-tough-year-19732582 http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/22/mcdonalds-2q-earnings/2574169/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MCD+Key+Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD With MCD at 97.58 Trade #1: Sell the Dec 105 call and buy the Dec 110 call for a net credit of $47 Yield = 47/453 = 10.4% in 150 days or 25% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(47) - .10(453) - .12(226) = 37 - 45 - 27 = -35 Price................P/L 75....................47 85....................47 95....................47 105..................47 105.47..............0 110.................(453) 115.................(453) 120.................(453) Trade #2 Sell the Dec 85 Put and buy the Dec 80 put for a net credit of $32 Yield = 32/468 = 6.8% in 150 days or 16.6% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(32) - .02(468) - .06(234) = 29.4 - 9.4 - 14.04 = 6 Price................P/L 75...................(468) 80...................(468) 84.68.................0 85....................32 95....................32 105..................32 110..................32 Both together = an Iron Condor
CROX: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crocs-plunge-disappointing-earnings-172321122.html http://blogs.marketwatch.com/behind...-analysts-gripe-about-earnings-inconsistency/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CROX+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=CROX http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CROX&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With CROX at 13.55 Jan 15/18 bear call spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/240 = 25% in 175 days or 52% annualized Prob = 70% Expectation = .7(60) - .14(240) - .16(120) = 42 - 33.6 - 19.2 = -11
CFX: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colfaxs-2q-earnings-beats-est-130619027.html http://seekingalpha.com/article/151...ebt-laden-and-huge-insider-sales?source=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CFX+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CFX+Competitors http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=CFX&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CFX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=CFX&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 With CFX at 52.48 Trade #1 Bear Put Spread Buy the Dec 52.50 put and sell the Dec 50 put for a net debit of $150 Potential Yield = 100/150 = 67% Trade #2 Bear Call Spread Sell the Dec 60 call and buy the Dec 65 call for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.53% in 146 days or 18.8% annualized Prob = 82% Expectation = .82(35) - .07(465) - .11(233) = 28.7 -32.55 - 25.6 = - 29 If the S&P continues to forge ahead probably CFX will also. If the market hesitates and takes a correction CFX would probably show an outsized pull back due to its high valuation.