Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    You seem to have some kind of proprietary, dog like marking nastiness that caught me by surprise.(but quite used to it in my 40 years of custom home building and dealing with idiots like you ) Your "SHUT UP" tantrum tells me a lot
    and especially when you threaten to put everyone on ignore
    WHAT A JOKe
    I never get into a pissing contest but now a first and last here

    MY option trading started in 1988 and posting wouldn't be any help
    to anyone at this time.
    MY STOCK TRADING STARTED WHEN YOU WERE WETTING YOURSELF(i know how old you are from your posting on
    http://investorsforum.proboards.com/index.cgi)
    I aways thought you were treated unfairly in your earlier posts but i was
    wrong.
    I won't explain my response when i said "mid" in my previous post
    because... i think when you worked at ROHM &HASS in Phia. i think some of those chemicals made you the JERK OFF you are now( SOUTH PHILLY speak" jerk off")

    CHEERS (you may have the last word if you wish)
    john
     
    #501     May 15, 2013
  2. Giving me the last word??

    Good....... here it is:

    GO AWAY.............GET OFF MY THREAD..............GO AWAY.......

    I am not interested in amiable (or unamiable) chatter... I use this thread to track trades.... why can't I have a simple thread with just my trades on it???

    I don't bother anybody (now that PM is gone) LEAVE ME ALONE.

    If you want to chat with somebody chat with somebody else.

    I REPEAT:

    SHUT UP.

    GO AWAY.............GET OFF MY THREAD..............GO AWAY.......
     
    #502     May 15, 2013
  3. WMT:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-profit-despite-sales-111104667.html

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/17/b...-mixed-results.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=WMT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:

    With WMT at 79.86:

    Sell July 80 call and buy July 82.50 call for a net credit of $100
    Yield = 100/250 = 40% in 64 days or 230% annualized
    Prob = 50%
    Expectation = .5(100) - .3(250) - .2(125) = 50 - 37.5 - 25 = -12.5

    Trade hypothesis is that this will cap WMT's rise.

    Note: WMT will be very active at the open and these numbers are based on yesterday's close. One could use opening volatility to get a good fill or wait and revise the above numbers to reassess/reset the trade after the open.
     
    #503     May 16, 2013
  4. BMY:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/b...t-cancer-cells.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BMY+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=BMY

    http://www.medicinenet.com/melanoma/article.htm

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BMY&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:

    Jan '15 32/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $60
    Yield = 60/340 = 17.6% in 610 days or 10.6% annualized
    Prob = 77%
    Expectation = .77(60) - .13(340) - .10(270) = 46.2 - 44.2 - 27.0 = -25
     
    #504     May 16, 2013
  5. TLT:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/video/buffett-bonds-terrible-investment-now-120200291.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/gros...on-t-be-like-1994-lGoo5W0uTc~KLfV7H9gucw.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...nce-90-versus-bunds-counter-buffett-pity.html

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tlt

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    With TLT at 117.06
    Trade #1:
    Bear Call Spread
    Sell the Jan '14 135 call and buy the Jan '14 140 call for a net credit of $25
    Yield 25/475 = 5.26% in 243 days or 7.9% annualized
    Prob = 91%
    Expectation = .91(25) - .047(475) - .04(238) = 22.75 - 22.32 - 9.52 = -9.1

    Trade #2:
    Bull put spread
    Sell the Jan '14 95 put and buy the Jan '14 90 put for a net credit of $30
    Yield = 30/460 = 6.5% in 243 days or 9.8% annualized
    Prob = 97.5%
    Expectation = .98(30) - .01(460) - .01(230) = 29.4 - 4.6 - 2.3 = 22.5

    (copied from elsewhere)
     
    #505     May 19, 2013
  6. HNZ:
    BRK and friends will close the acquisition of HNZ within the next day or so:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heinz-buyout-close-week-143002169.html

    Acquisitions make for easy money if you know how to do it.

    It usually isn't worth just buying the stock but playing the options can be worth while.

    HNZ was sold for 72.50 a share. So immediately on the announcement (2/15/2013) I sold 6 Jan '15 $70 puts and bought 6 Jan '15 $65 puts for a net credit of 134.72.

    Six 5 point spreads require 6*500 = $3000, minus the 134.72 = $2865. Thus the yield is 134.72/2865 = 4.7%.

    I usually plan these to take about 6 months to settle. In fact HNZ has taken 110 days. So my rate of return is 4.7*(365/110) = 15.6% annualized.

    This was an extremely certain acquisition and doing the options was much better than buying the stock.

    (Atticus questioned the trade at the time so I have posted the outcome... But I think Atticus is no longer posting here)
     
    #507     Jun 4, 2013
  7. #509     Jun 17, 2013